The 2011 flood event in the Assiniboine River Basin: causes, assessment and damages

Blais, Eric-Lorne; Greshuk, Jeremy; Stadnyk, Tricia A.

doi:10.1080/07011784.2015.1046139

Cited by 30 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…Increasing overall discharge trends reported in this study are likely influenced by increasing mean summer discharge and variability in the most recent decade (2004- 2013), which seems to be largely climate driven as it occurs in both regulated and unregulated systems. Particularly in the western Hudson and James Bay region, an increasing number of large summer precipitation and rainfall-runoff events in recent years have, in some cases, yielded annual hydrographs with dual peaks (Ahmari et al, 2016;Blais et al, 2016). Increasing variability may also be influenced by the changing magnitude, timing, frequency and duration of flood events observed in some gauges of our study area (Burn and Whitfield, 2016).…”

Section: Variability Arising From Flow Regulation and Climatementioning

confidence: 85%

“…Perhaps lesser known are the impacts of land cover and land use change on river discharge in northern Canada. Deforestation through wood harvesting depresses water demand by vegetation while increasing soil moisture and runoff generation (Boon, 2012). In contrast, the intensification of agricultural activities, particularly in the Canadian Prairies, increases water demand for irrigation.…”

Section: Anthropogenic Influencesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Recent trends and variability in river discharge across northern Canada

Déry

Stadnyk

MacDonald

et al. 2016

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

111

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Abstract. This study presents an analysis of the observed inter-annual variability and inter-decadal trends in river discharge across northern Canada for 1964–2013. The 42 rivers chosen for this study span a combined gauged area of 5.26  ×  106 km2 and are selected based on data availability and quality, gauged area and record length. Inter-annual variability in river discharge is greatest for the eastern Arctic Ocean (coefficient of variation, CV  =  16 %) due to the Caniapiscau River diversion into the La Grande Rivière system for enhanced hydropower production. Variability is lowest for the study area as a whole (CV  =  7 %). Based on the Mann–Kendall test (MKT), no significant (p > 0.05) trend in annual discharge from 1964 to 2013 is observed in the Bering Sea, western Arctic Ocean, western Hudson and James Bay, and Labrador Sea; for northern Canada as a whole, however, a statistically significant (p < 0.05) decline of 102.8 km3 25 yr−1 in discharge occurs over the first half of the study period followed by a statistically significant (p < 0.05) increase of 208.8 km3 25 yr−1 in the latter half. Increasing (decreasing) trends in river discharge to the eastern Hudson and James Bay (eastern Arctic Ocean) are largely explained by the Caniapiscau diversion to the La Grande Rivière system. Strong regional variations in seasonal trends of river discharge are observed, with overall winter (summer) flows increasing (decreasing, with the exception of the most recent decade) partly due to flow regulation and storage for enhanced hydropower production along the Hudson and James Bay, the eastern Arctic Ocean and Labrador Sea. Flow regulation also suppresses the natural variability of river discharge, particularly during cold seasons.

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Section: Variability Arising From Flow Regulation and Climatementioning

confidence: 85%

Section: Anthropogenic Influencesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent trends and variability in river discharge across northern Canada

Déry

Stadnyk

MacDonald

et al. 2016

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

111

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Moreover, post-processing of any type of hydrological forecast is based on the assumption of stationarity in climate, weather patterns, and hydrologic response [20,22,44]. This means that the statistical correlation between observations and forecasts during the training and verification periods should remain constant, which is not always valid in hydrology [77], and arguably may not have been the case over this study period for the UARB with two >130-year return period floods (i.e., 2011, and 2014) [78,79]. Such assumptions can introduce errors into the post-processed forecast, leading to greater uncertainty than is expected [44].…”

Section: Post-processing Effectiveness For Operational Predictionmentioning

confidence: 95%

Multi-Model Approaches for Improving Seasonal Ensemble Streamflow Prediction Scheme with Various Statistical Post-Processing Techniques in the Canadian Prairie Region

Muhammad

Stadnyk

Unduche

et al. 2018

Water

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Hydrologic models are an approximation of reality, and thus, are not able to perfectly simulate observed streamflow because of various sources of uncertainty. On the other hand, skillful operational hydrologic forecasts are vital in water resources engineering and management for preparedness against flooding and extreme events. Multi-model techniques can be used to help represent and quantify various uncertainties in forecasting. In this paper, we assess the performance of a Multi-model Seasonal Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (MSESP) scheme coupled with statistical post-processing techniques to issue operational uncertainty for the Manitoba Hydrologic Forecasting Centre (HFC). The Ensemble Streamflow Predictions (ESPs) from WATFLOOD and SWAT hydrologic models were used along with four statistical post-processing techniques: Linear Regression (LR), Quantile Mapping (QM), Quantile Model Averaging (QMA), and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA)]. The quality of MSESP was investigated from April to July with a lead time of three months for the Upper Assiniboine River Basin (UARB) at Kamsack, Canada. While multi-model ESPs coupled with post-processing techniques improve predictability (in general), results suggest that additional avenues for improving the skill and value of seasonal streamflow prediction. Next steps towards an operational ESP system include adding more operationally used models, improving models calibration methods to reduce model bias, increasing ESP sample size, and testing ESP schemes at multiple lead times, which, once developed, will not only help HFCs in Canada but would also help Centers South of the Border.

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“…However, increases in the proportion of precipitation as rainfall and the number of multiday rain events have been observed at multiple sites throughout the Canadian prairie portion of the northern Great Plains between 1951 and 2000 (Shook and Pomeroy, 2012). Multiple studies have also suggested that flood volume and peak discharge rates in the region have been amplified by an expanded network of agricultural drainage ditches and loss of surface water storage capacity in depressional or wetland features (Dumanski et al, 2015; Szeto et al, 2015; Blais et al, 2016). Drainage of surface depressions has occurred extensively within the northern Great Plains, and estimates of overall loss of wetlands for agricultural use within the Canadian prairie pothole portion of the region range between 40 and 71% (Federal Provincial and Territorial Governments of Canada, 2010).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Landscape Controls on Nutrient Export during Snowmelt and an Extreme Rainfall Runoff Event in Northern Agricultural Watersheds

et al. 2019

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In the northern Great Plains, most runoff transport of N, and P to surface waters has historically occurred with snowmelt. In recent years, significant rainfall runoff events have become more frequent and intense in the region. Here, we examine the influence of landscape characteristics on hydrology and nutrient export in nine tributary watersheds of the Assiniboine River in Manitoba, Canada, during snowmelt runoff and with an early summer extreme rainfall runoff event (ERRE). All watersheds included in the study have land use that is primarily agricultural, but with differing proportions of land remaining as wetlands, grassland, and that has been artificially drained. Those watersheds with greater capacity for storage of water in surface depressions (noneffective contributing areas) exhibited lower rates of runoff and nutrient export with snowmelt. During the ERRE, higher export of total P (TP), but not total N, was observed from those watersheds with larger amounts of contributing area that had been added through artificial surface drainage, and this was associated primarily with higher TP concentrations. Increasing or restoring the storage of water on the landscape is likely to reduce nutrient export; however, the importance of antecedent conditions was evident during the ERRE, when small surface depressions were at or near capacity from snowmelt. Total P concentrations observed during the summer ERRE were as high as those observed with snowmelt, and N/P ratios were significantly lower. If the frequency of summer ERREs increases with climate change, this is likely to result in negative water quality outcomes.

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The 2011 flood event in the Assiniboine River Basin: causes, assessment and damages

Cited by 30 publications

References 3 publications

Recent trends and variability in river discharge across northern Canada

Recent trends and variability in river discharge across northern Canada

Multi-Model Approaches for Improving Seasonal Ensemble Streamflow Prediction Scheme with Various Statistical Post-Processing Techniques in the Canadian Prairie Region

Landscape Controls on Nutrient Export during Snowmelt and an Extreme Rainfall Runoff Event in Northern Agricultural Watersheds

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