The 2014–15 Financial Crisis in Russia and the Foundations of Weak Monetary Power Autonomy in the International Political Economy

Abstract

This article contributes to international political economy debates about the monetary power autonomy (MPA) of emerging market and developing countries (EMDs). The 2014-15 Russian financial crisis is used as a case study to explore why an accumulation of large international reserves does not provide protection against currency crises and macroeconomic adjustments in EMDs. The analysis centres on the interplay between two dimensions of MPA: the Power to Delay and the Power to Deflect adjustment costs. Two structural factors condition Russia's low MPA. First, the country's subordinated integration in global financial markets increases its financial vulnerability. The composition of external assets and liabilities, combined with cross-border capital flows, restrict the use of international reserves to delay currency crises. Second, the choice of a particular macroeconomic policy regime embraced the financialisation of themainly state-owned-Russian banking sector, thus making it difficult to transform liquidity inflows into credits for enterprises. Russia's main comparative advantage, hydrocarbon export revenues, is not exploited. The type of economy created due to the post-Communist transition means that provided 'excessive' liquidity remains in the financial system and is channelled into currency arbitrage. This factor increases exchange rate vulnerability and undermines Russia's MPA.

Quantitative Evaluation Model of Stock Market Liquidity by Macroeconomic Factors

“…Viktorov used the GARCH-MIDAS model to study the relationship between industry volatility and macroindustry, and the results show that both the level and change of income value are positive. e level of CPI, the level of exchange rate, and the constant fluctuation have all had a negative impact on the exchange rate of China's bulk commodities [10].…”

“…In Formula (10), α, β are parameters, α > 0, β > 0, and α + β < 1. τ t represents the long-term component of volatility. e realized volatility RV t is used to model the longterm component τ t , which is expressed as follows:…”

COVID−19 and oil price risk exposure

“… 6 Global financial crisis in 2007–2009, European debt crisis in 2010–2012 ( Akhtaruzzaman, Abdel-Qader, Hammami, & Shams, 2019 ), Russian financial crisis in 2014–2015 ( Viktorov & Abramov, 2020 ), Chinese stock market crash in 2014–2015 ( Jian, Wu, & Zhu, 2018 ). …”

Paradoxical Sexual and Gender Politics: Projects and Narratives of Russia’s Far Right

“…While the population trend reversed for a short period in the mid-2010s, birth rates are once again insufficient to meet or exceed death rates. 2 In addition to this, Russia was hit by the global recession in 2008, and though it was predicted that the natural resource reserves would allow the economy to recover quickly, a renewed financial crisis began in 2014, when the rouble lost value quite rapidly and the price of oil declined as a result (Desai 2010;Viktorov and Abramov, 2019). Historian and legal studies scholar Marianna Muravyeva (2018) has demonstrated that Russia's ongoing economic crises have given the State the opportunity to scapegoat feminism and "non-normative" sexualities, blaming them for negative demographic outcomes.…”