The 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model: Overview and Results

Danciu, Laurentiu; Giardini, Domenico; Weatherill, Graeme; Basili, Roberto; Nandan, Shyam; Rovida, Andrea; Beauval, Céline; Bard, Pierre-Yves; Pagani, Marco; Reyes, Celso Guillermo; Sesetyan, Karin; Vilanova, Susana; Cotton, Fabrice; Wiemer, Stefan

doi:10.5194/egusphere-2023-3062

Cited by 6 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 69 publications

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The primary aim of this research is to investigate how geodetic monitoring can offer valuable constraints to enhance the accuracy of the source model in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. We leverage the release of geodetic strain rate maps for Europe, as derived by Piña-Valdés et al (2022), and the ESHM20 source model by Danciu et al (2024) to compare geodetic and seismic moment rates across Europe, a geographically extensive region characterized by heterogeneous seismic activity. Seismic moment computation relies on the magnitude-frequency distribution proposed in the ESHM20 source model logic tree, which is based on earthquake catalogs and fault datasets.

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confidence: 99%

Consistency between the Strain Rate Model and ESHM20 Earthquake Rate Forecast in Europe: insights for seismic hazard

Donniol Jouve,

Socquet,

Beauval

et al. 2024

Preprint

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Abstract. The primary aim of this research is to investigate how geodetic monitoring can offer valuable constraints to enhance the accuracy of the source model in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. We leverage the release of geodetic strain rate maps for Europe, as derived by Piña-Valdès et al. (2022), and the ESHM20 source model by Danciu et al. (2024) to compare geodetic and seismic moment rates across Europe, a geographically extensive region characterized by heterogeneous seismic activity. Seismic moment computation relies on the magnitude-frequency distribution proposed in the ESHM20 source model logic tree, which is based on earthquake catalogs and fault datasets. This approach allows us to account for epistemic uncertainties proposed in ESHM20. On the geodesy side, we meticulously calculate the geodetic moment for each zone, considering associated epistemic uncertainties. Comparing the distributions of geodetic and seismic moments rates at different scales allows us to assess compatibility. The geodetic moment rate linearly depends of the seismogenic thickness, that is therefore a pivotal parameter contributing to the uncertainty. In high-activity zones, such as the Apennines, Greece, the Balkans, and the Betics, primary compatibility between seismic and geodetic moment rates is evident. However, local disparities underscore the importance of source zone scale; broader zones enhance the overlap between geodetic and seismic moment rate distributions. Discrepancies emerge in low-to-moderate activity zones, particularly in areas affected by Scandinavian Glacial Isostatic Adjustment, where geodetic moment rates exceed seismic moment rates significantly. Nevertheless, in some zones where ESHM20 recurrence models are well-constrained, by either enough seismic events in the catalogue or mapped active faults, we observe an overlap in the distributions of seismic and geodetic moments, suggesting the potential for integrating geodetic data even in regions with low deformation.

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mentioning

confidence: 99%

Consistency between the Strain Rate Model and ESHM20 Earthquake Rate Forecast in Europe: insights for seismic hazard

Donniol Jouve,

Socquet,

Beauval

et al. 2024

Preprint

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Seismic hazard zonation map and definition of seismic actions for Greece in the context of the ongoing revision of EC8

Pitilakis,

Riga,

Apostolaki

et al. 2024

Bull Earthquake Eng

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The Greek National Annex for current Eurocode 8 has adopted the seismic hazard zonation map published in 2003 as part of the modifications to the Greek Seismic Code EAK 2000 (EAK 2003). This map, which followed the catastrophic earthquakes that hit the country between 1978 and 2001, includes three seismic hazard zones with peak ground acceleration (PGA) ranging between 0.16 and 0.36 g. In this paper, following the significant progress that has been made worldwide in the last two decades towards the improvement of the definition of seismic actions and the seismic hazard maps using fully probabilistic models, we make a complete proposal for the Greek National Annex of the ongoing revision of Eurocode 8, which includes a new seismic hazard zonation map for Greece, as well as a novel site categorization scheme and related site amplification factors. To this end, we use the results of the European Seismic Hazard Model, ESHM20, as reported by Danciu et al. (The 2020 update of the European Seismic Hazard Model: Model Overview, 2021) which will be adopted as informative reference for the seismic hazard at European level in the forthcoming revision of Eurocode 8 (CEN/EC8). The herein proposed ground shaking zonation for rock conditions includes five zones with PGA values ranging between 0.13 and 0.37 g. For each zone, two newly proposed ground motion parameters, i.e., Sα,475 and Sβ,475, are provided, which are the two parameters used for anchoring the elastic response spectrum as defined in CEN/EC8, along with all the other necessary parameters for the definition of the elastic response spectrum, including site amplification. The proposal for the new seismic zonation is supported by a preliminary investigation of the impact of its adoption on the seismic design of new structures and on the seismic risk of the current building stock in Greece, to help gain a better insight on how important the differences imposed by the new zonation might be for the end-users and the administration.

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Impact of $${{\varvec{M}}}_{{\varvec{W}}}$$ definition approach on Fourier ground-motion variability of shallow crustal earthquakes in Europe

Laurendeau,

Kotha

2024

J Seismol

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The 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model: Overview and Results

Cited by 6 publications

References 69 publications

Consistency between the Strain Rate Model and ESHM20 Earthquake Rate Forecast in Europe: insights for seismic hazard

Consistency between the Strain Rate Model and ESHM20 Earthquake Rate Forecast in Europe: insights for seismic hazard

Seismic hazard zonation map and definition of seismic actions for Greece in the context of the ongoing revision of EC8

Impact of $${{\varvec{M}}}_{{\varvec{W}}}$$ definition approach on Fourier ground-motion variability of shallow crustal earthquakes in Europe

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