The 2022 Encounter of the Outburst Material from Comet 73P/Schwassmann--Wachmann~3

Abstract

The possible encounter of the meteoric material from 73P/Schmassmann-Wachmann 3 produced during the comet's 1995 outburst provides a rare and valuable opportunity to understand a fragmenting comet. Here we explore various ejection configurations and their impact on the possible meteor outburst in the early hours of UT 2022 May 31. Based on available evidence, it is likely that only sub-millimeter-class meteoroids will be delivered to the Earth, producing an outburst rich in extremely faint meteors difficult to be detected by conventional techniques. However, we confirm that the meteoroids only need to be ejected as little as 40% faster in order for larger, millimeter-class meteoroids to reach the Earth and generate a more visible, albeit likely still small, outburst. Other effects such as an enhanced lunar sodium tail and a visible glow from the meteoroid trail may also occur during the encounter.