The 3D numerical simulation of near-source ground motion during the Marsica earthquake, central Italy, 100 years later

Abstract

In this paper we show 3D physics-based numerical simulations of the devastating Marsica earthquake, Central Italy, occurred 100 years ago. The results provide a realistic estimation of the earthquake ground motion and fit reasonably well both the geodetic measurements of permanent ground settlement, and the observed macroseismic distribution of damage. In addition, these results provide a very useful benchmark to improve the current knowledge of near-source earthquake ground motion, including evaluation of the best distance metric to describe the spatial variability of the peak values of ground motion, the relative importance of fault normal vs fault parallel components, the conditions under which vertical ground motion may prevail, as well as the adequacy of 1D vs 3D modelling of site amplification effects.

The Role of Viscoelastic Stress Transfer in Long‐Term Earthquake Cascades: Insights After the Central Italy 2016–2017 Seismic Sequence

“…The 1915 earthquake is one of the largest events to have occurred in Central Italy, and the determination of its magnitude is the focus of several studies. Taking in consideration both the moment magnitude suggested by the historical catalogue (obtained by macroseismic felt intensities inversion, M w ~ 7 in CPTI15; Rovida et al, ) and by the work of Amoruso et al (; M w 6.7 from inversion of geodetic and seismic data), here we use a value of M w 6.9, consistent with the coseismic slip distribution obtained by Paolucci et al (). The ultimate aims of this study are, on the one hand, to quantify the present‐day stress perturbations along the fault system activated by the 2016–2017 earthquake sequence, with a specific focus on the Gorzano segment, and on the other hand, to highlight the specificity of the central Italian Apennine seismicity, characterized by long‐ and short‐term clusters of events potentially governed in part by viscoelastic processes triggered in the wake of major earthquakes.…”

“…Because in Central Italy this information is available only for recent events, we focused our attention on the last long‐term earthquake sequence (cascade n.5 in Figure and Table ) initiated with the 1915 Fucino earthquake, the most catastrophic instrumentally recorded event that hit the area. For this first earthquake we used the slip model from Paolucci et al (; Figure a, Table ), which in turn is based on the variable slip planar model of Ward and Valensise () calculated using geodetic leveling data from the Fucino plain. The three 1997 Colfiorito earthquakes are modeled using the results form Hernandez et al (; Figure S3a, Table ), which are based on a joint inversion of GPS, DInSAR, and strong motion data.…”

“…ΔCFS due to the 1915 Fucino earthquake resolved on the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake (black star: depth of 8.6 km by Chiaraluce et al, 2001; kinematics by Scognamiglio et al, ): (a) Coseismic, (b) 94 years of postseismic, and (c) cumulative (coseismic + postseismic). The white lines represent the surface trace of the modeled source fault (slip model from Paolucci et al, , in the inset), and the white circles are the post‐1915 largest earthquakes numbered in chronological order: (1) 26 September 1933, M = 5.6; (2) 5 September 1950, M = 5.7; (3) 19 September 1979, M w = 5.8; (4) 7 May 1984, M = 5.9; (5) 26 September 1997, M w = 5.7; (6) 26 September 1997, M w = 6.0; (7) 14 October 1997, M w 5.6; (9) 24 August 2016, M w = 6.0; (9) 26 October 2016, M w = 5.9; and (10) 30 October 2016, M w 6.5.…”

The impact of topography on seismic amplification during the 2005 Kashmir Earthquake

“…Liu et al (2015) simulated scenario earthquake strong ground motion in the Shidian basin to study basinal influence on seismic amplification and distribution of strong ground motion. Evangelista et al (2016) studied site response at the Aterno basin (Italy). Paolucci et al (2016) estimated ground motion for the historical 1915 Marsica earthquake in the Facino basin incorporating topography and bedrock morphology.…”

“…Evangelista et al (2016) studied site response at the Aterno basin (Italy). Paolucci et al (2016) estimated ground motion for the historical 1915 Marsica earthquake in the Facino basin incorporating topography and bedrock morphology. Restrepo et al (2016) simulated 4 scenario earthquakes of Mw 5 along the Romeral fault for the metropolitan area of Medellín (Colombia) demonstrating how topography affects ground response.…”