The $800 Billion Paycheck Protection Program: Where Did the Money Go and Why Did it Go There?

Abstract

for helpful discussion. Autor acknowledges financial support from the Smith Richardson Foundation (#20202252), Accenture LLP (#027843-0001), the Andrew Carnegie Fellowship (G-F-19-56882), and the Washington Center for Equitable Growth (APP-01666). The analysis and conclusions set forth here are those of the authors and do not indicate concurrence by other members of the Federal Reserve Board research staff, by the Board of Governors, or by ADP. ADP's data privacy policy can be found at https://www.adp.com/aboutadp/data-privacy.aspx. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer-reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications.

Australian Government COVID‐19 Business Supports

“…This most likely relates to two factors; first, the $100,000 cap for SME Cashflow Boost meant that the measure would be of relatively greater benefit to smaller and more marginal employers; and second, the capacity for employers to satisfy the JobKeeper eligibility test on an ‘anticipated’ basis likely meant that more inframarginal employers would qualify for the JobKeeper Payment who's employment decisions were less likely to be sensitive to receiving the wage subsidy. These costs per job‐year saved estimates are also significantly lower than the most comprehensive estimated for the COVID‐era the Paycheck Protection Program in the United States found by Autor et al (2022) and Dalton (2021); and consistent Graham & Ozbilgin (2021) who suggest that the New Zealand 2020 COVID‐19 Wage Subsidy had a cost per job saved of NZ$80,000 ($75,000). Overall, the employment and approximate output multipliers appear consistent with those associated with estimates from similar empirical frameworks in the pre‐pandemic period summarised by Chodorow‐Reich (2019), although below average multiplier estimates for public investment and transfer payments during recessions found by Gechert & Rannenberg (2018) in their comprehensive meta‐analysis.…”

“…This most likely relates to two factors; first, the $100,000 cap for SME Cashflow Boost meant that the measure would be of relatively greater benefit to smaller and more marginal employers; and second, the capacity for employers to satisfy the JobKeeper eligibility test on an 'anticipated' basis likely meant that more inframarginal employers would qualify for the JobKeeper Payment who's employment decisions were less likely to be sensitive to receiving the wage subsidy. These costs per job-year saved estimates are also significantly lower than the most comprehensive estimated for the COVID-era the Paycheck Protection Program in the United States found by Autor et al (2022) and Dalton (2021); and consistent , where ≈ α 0.33 and the elasticity of hours per worker with respect to total employment for Australia is χ = 0.46 based on Dixon et al (2004), which compares to a standard assumed value in US studies of χ = 0.5, and ∕ Y E is output per worker from the national accounts over the relevant period. Standard errors for aggregated cost per job-year saved, job-years saved, and Chodorow-Reich (2019) approximate output multipliers are calculated using the delta method.…”

Implications of E-Banking on Household Financial Management

“…Here's the narrative from the interview conducted: "Brother deck because he was taught by parents how to make the money clear where to go, so brother notes in what books he bought, how much everything costs to make it clear or if you pay installments the same as sending money to children, usually m-banking. Now if there is a lot of money, usually you will save it in the bank because it is practical, you can check it using a cellphone too" (Autor et al, 2022).…”

CARES and crime

“…3. Autor et al (2022) review the effects of the paycheck protection program which provided loans to businesses. Along with modest pro-employment effects, they find that most of the money went to business owners rather than employees.…”

“…3. Autor et al . (2022) review the effects of the paycheck protection program which provided loans to businesses.…”