The ability of societies to adapt to twenty-first-century sea-level rise

Hinkel, Jochen; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; Brown, Sally; Jiménez, José A.; Lincke, Daniël; Nicholls, Robert J.; Scussolini, Paolo; Sánchez‐Arcilla, Agustín; Vafeidis, Athanasios T.; Addo, Kwasi Appeaning

doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0176-z

Cited by 207 publications

(149 citation statements)

References 71 publications

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“…Previous studies have demonstrated that future climate change could result in extensive loss of coastal wetlands due to sea-level rise (Hinkel et al, 2018;Schuerch et al, 2018;Spencer et al, 2016).…”

Section: Potential Distributions Under Current and Future Climate Smentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of climate change on the global potential distribution of two notorious invasive crayfishes

et al. 2019

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1. Invasive alien species and climate change are two of the most serious global environmental threats. In particular, it is of great interest to understand how changing climates could impact the distribution of invaders that pose serious threats to ecosystems and human activities.2. In this study, we developed ensemble species distribution models for predicting the current and future global distribution of the signal crayfish Pacifastacus leniusculus and the red swamp crayfish Procambarus clarkii, two of the most highly problematic invaders of freshwater ecosystems worldwide. We collected occurrence records of the species, from native and alien established ranges worldwide.These records in combination with averaged observations of current climatic conditions were used to calibrate a set of 10 distinct correlative models for estimating the climatic niche of each species. We next projected the estimated niches into the geographical space for the current climate conditions and for the 2050s and 2070s under representative concentration pathway 2.6 and 8.5 scenarios.3. Our species distribution models had high predictive abilities and suggest that annual mean temperature is the main driver of the distribution of both species.Model predictions indicated that the two crayfish species have not fully occupied their suitable climates and will respond differently to future climate scenarios in different geographic regions. Suitable climate for P. leniusculus was predicted to shift poleward and to increase in extent in North America and Europe but decrease in Asia. Regions with suitable climate for P. clarkii are predicted to widen in Europe but contract in North America and Asia.4. This study highlights that invasive species with different thermal preference are likely to respond differently to future climate changes. Our results provide important information for policy makers to design and implement anticipated measures for the prevention and control of these two problematic species. K E Y W O R D Sclimate change, habitat suitability, Pacifastacus leniusculus, Procambarus clarkii, species distribution modelling

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Section: Potential Distributions Under Current and Future Climate Smentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of climate change on the global potential distribution of two notorious invasive crayfishes

et al. 2019

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“…However, substantial uncertainty remains regarding which areas will experience retreat and how it will occur. Studies of economically robust coastal adaptation suggest that retreat will take place in lower-income, more rural areas (6,7), but case studies within the United States have primarily documented retreat in urban areas [e.g., (8)(9)(10)(11)], raising questions about whether predicted patterns of rural retreat will hold true within or across nations. Existing retreat experiences may also offer strategies relevant across international contexts and lessons about revisions needed to meet future demands.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Managed retreat through voluntary buyouts of flood-prone properties

et al. 2019

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Retreat from some areas will become unavoidable under intensifying climate change. Existing deployments of managed retreat are at small scale compared to potential future needs, leaving open questions about where, when, and how retreat under climate change will occur. Here, we analyze more than 40,000 voluntary buyouts of flood-prone properties in the United States, in which homeowners sell properties to the government and the land is restored to open space. In contrast to model-based evaluation of potential future retreat, local governments in counties with higher population and income are more likely to administer buyouts. The bought-out properties themselves, however, are concentrated in areas of greater social vulnerability within these counties, pointing to the importance of assessing the equity of buyout implementation and outcomes. These patterns demonstrate the challenges associated with locally driven implementation of managed retreat and the potential benefits of experimentation with different approaches to retreat.

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“…For instance, Cinner et al (2018) proposed a framework to depict adaptive capacity of coastal communities across five domains: the assets that people can draw upon in times of need; the flexibility to change strategies; the ability to organize and act collectively; the ability to learn to recognize and respond to change; and the agency to determine whether to change or not. Hinkel et al (2018) explored societies' abilities to adapt to sea level rise by integrating perspectives from coastal engineering, economics, finance and social sciences. In addition, many case studies have been conducted to quantify to what extent human society is able to adapt to climate stresses, and adaptation capacity was generally defined and described from different perspectives and dimensions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the adaptive capacity of urban form to climate stress: a case study on an urban heat island

Cui

Tang

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Urban land planning shapes the urban form and is considered to be one of the many tools important for climate adaptation. Yet there is little knowledge about the adaptive capacity of urban forms to climate stress, or of an appropriate assessment method. Through a case study on the urban heat island (UHI) in Xiamen City, China, we propose a novel approach that integrates several aspects to assess the adaptive capacity of urban form to climate stress. These aspects include the calculation of urban form, the determination of climate stress and land use modeling. Our results demonstrate that this approach is applicable for assessing the adaptive capacity of urban form in the historical, current and future multitime scales. Both urban planning aspects (e.g. population density, land use mix, road density and percentage of green open space) and landscape features (e.g. shape complexity, contiguity and compactness) are found to be key urban form drivers affecting UHI. The adaptive capacity of the urban form to UHI in Xiamen City has been declining dramatically, and is expected to continue to decline in the future as long as adaptation continues to not be integrated in urban land use planning. Our analysis suggests that urban managers need to review the past development model of land use and rethink the current approach to urban planning: most urgent is the need to take full account of adaptation in future land use planning and implementation, so as to enhance climate resilience.

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The ability of societies to adapt to twenty-first-century sea-level rise

Cited by 207 publications

References 71 publications

Impacts of climate change on the global potential distribution of two notorious invasive crayfishes

Impacts of climate change on the global potential distribution of two notorious invasive crayfishes

Managed retreat through voluntary buyouts of flood-prone properties

Assessing the adaptive capacity of urban form to climate stress: a case study on an urban heat island

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