The Adaptive Seismic Resilience of Infrastructure Systems: A Bayesian Networks Analysis

Abstract

Earthquakes pose a significant threat to infrastructure systems. However, improving the seismic resilience of infrastructure systems in earthquake-prone regions is fraught with obstacles. First, this article reviews the current status of earthquake resilience research, points out the gaps of existing research, and then focuses on the adaptability in resilience. Secondly, five groups of influencing factors of infrastructure system adaptability are identified and clustered through literature review and expert knowledge. Thirdly, the structure and conditional probability table of the Bayesian network model are given in detail, and the evaluation model of Bayesian network adaptability is created. A Chinese earthquake-prone county was used to verify the applicability of the model. The research uses forward propagation analysis to calculate the adaptability of the case and obtains the probability of the case’s adaptability. The backward propagation to obtain the ranking of the influence degree of the critical influencing factors on the adaptability and the top three factors are respectively earthquake history, relevant information and contingency mechanisms. Finally, the research suggests measures to improve adaptability.