The added value of km-scale simulations to describe temperature over complex orography: the CORDEX FPS-Convection multi-model ensemble runs over the Alps

Soares, Pedro M. M.; Careto, João António Martins; Cardoso, Rita M.; Goergen, Klaus; Katragkou, Eleni; Sobolowski, Stefan; Coppola, Erika; Ban, Nikolina; Belušić, Danijel; Berthou, Ségolène; Caillaud, Cécile; Dobler, Andreas; Hodnebrog, Øivind; Kartsios, Stergios; Lenderink, Geert; Lorenz, Torge; Milovac, Josipa; Feldmann, Hendrik; Pichelli, Emanuela; Truhetz, Heimo; Demory, Marie Estelle; Vries, Hylke de; Warrach‐Sagi, Kirsten; Keuler, Klaus; Raffa, Mario; Tölle, Merja; Sieck, Kevin

doi:10.1007/s00382-022-06593-7

Cited by 15 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 83 publications

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“…The temperature evaluation showed some benefit from the km-scale ensemble in terms of simulated frequency of colder air temperatures in both seasons, likely related to the unrealistically deep snowpack present in ERA5 in DJFM and at the start of JJAS. The smaller added value is not surprising since the temperature is not as variable as precipitation, and such results are consistent with previous studies over other regions (see e.e.g, Soares et al, 2022).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

“…A smaller added value when simulating daily mean temperature with higher resolution models is not surprising and is consistent with previous studies over other regions (see e.g., Soares et al, 2022). This is especially true for daily mean temperature, while sub-daily values might show different results as they can be influenced by cloudiness and locally developing systems.…”

Section: Temperaturesupporting

confidence: 90%

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The First Ensemble of Kilometre-Scale Simulations of a Hydrological Year over the Third Pole

Collier,

Ban,

Richter

et al. 2024

Preprint

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An accurate understanding of the current and future water cycle over the Third Pole is of great societal importance, given the role this region plays as a water tower for densely populated areas downstream. An emerging and promising approach for skillful climate assessments over regions of complex terrain is kilometer-scale climate modeling. As a foundational step towards such simulations over the Third Pole, we present a multi-model and multi-physics ensemble of kilometer-scale regional simulations for the hydrological year of October 2019 to September 2020. The ensemble consists of 13 simulations performed by an international consortium of 10 research groups, configured with a horizontal grid spacing ranging from 2.2 to 4 km covering all of the Third Pole region. These simulations are driven by ERA5 reanalysis and are part of a Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling EXperiment Flagship Pilot Study on Convection-Permitting Third Pole. The simulations are compared against available gridded and in-situ observations and remote-sensing data, to assess the performance and spread of the model ensemble compared to the driving reanalysis during the cold and warm seasons. A key challenge in assessing the performance of the ensemble is the large difference amongst the gridded precipitation datasets used as a reference over this region. However, consistent with results from other mountainous regions, we show the ensemble improves on many warm-season precipitation metrics compared with ERA5, including most wet-day and hour statistics, and also adds value in the representation of wet spells in both seasons. As such, the CPTP ensemble will provide an invaluable resource for future improvements in the process understanding of the hydroclimate of this remote but important region.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

Section: Temperaturesupporting

confidence: 90%

The First Ensemble of Kilometre-Scale Simulations of a Hydrological Year over the Third Pole

Collier,

Ban,

Richter

et al. 2024

Preprint

Self Cite

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“…We find a dependency of the remaining error on the landscape type and an association with orography -especially in transition areas between different major landscape types. Therefore we support a region-specific magnitude of the added value as in Soares et al (2022). In general, climate change studies focusing on high temperatures and the effects of increasing heat stress are expected to benefit from the better representation of high temperatures and the associated lower impact of bias correction.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 69%

Future heat extremes and impacts in a convection permitting climate ensemble over Germany

Hundhausen

Feldmann²,

Laube³

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Abstract. Heat extremes and associated impacts are considered the most pressing issue for German regional governments with respect to climate adaptation. We explore the potential of an unique high-resolution convection permitting (2.8 km), multi-GCM ensemble with COSMO-CLM regional simulations (1971–2100) over Germany regarding heat extremes and related impacts. We find an improved mean temperature beyond the effect of a better representation of orography on the convection permitting scale, with reduced bias particularly during summer. The projected increase in temperature and its variance favors the development of longer and hotter heat waves, especially in late summer and early autumn. In a 2° (3°) warmer world, a 26 % (100 %) increase in the Heat Wave Magnitude Index is anticipated. Human heat stress (UTCI > 32°C) and local-specific parameters tailored to climate adaptation, revealed a dependency on the major landscapes, resulting in significant higher heat exposure in flat regions as the Rhine Valley, accompanied by the strongest absolute increase. A non-linear, exponential increase is anticipated for parameters characterizing strong heat stress (UTCI > 32°C, tropical nights, very hot days). Providing local-specific and tailored climate information, we demonstrate the potential of convection permitting simulations to facilitate improved impact studies and narrow the gap between climate modelling and stakeholder requirements for climate adaptation.

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“…Added value of mean and heavy precipitation on seasonal or smaller temporal scales by the kilometer-scale simulations has been studied in multiple works [3,4,6,8,10,11,[31][32][33][34], finding improvements in precipitation daily cycle, intensity and frequency representation. Although some shortcomings in representing maximum and minimum temperature at km-scale resolution have been seen in [35], a more recent study [36] shows how CPRCMs simulations, although with a warmer/drier tendency, can reproduce heatwaves more realistically than their driving RCMs.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The added value of the km-scale multimodel ensemble of the FPS-Convection to describe wind speed over the Alps

Molina,

Careto,

Gutiérrez

et al. 2023

Preprint

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The advancement of computational resources has allowed researchers to conduct convection-permitting regional climate model (CPRCM) simulations. A pioneering effort promoting a multimodel ensemble of such simulations is the CORDEX Flagship Pilot Studies (FPS) on "Convective Phenomena over Europe and the Mediterranean" over an extended Alps region. In this study, the Distribution Added Value metric is used to determine the improvement of the representation of all available FPS hindcast simulations for the daily mean wind speed. The analysis is performed on normalized empirical probability distributions and considers station observation data as the reference. The use of a normalized metric allows for spatial comparison among the different regions (coast and inland), altitudes and seasons. This approach permits a direct assessment of the added value between the CPRCM simulations against their global driving reanalysis (ERA-Interim) and respective coarser resolution regional model counterparts. In general, the results show that CPRCMs add value to their global driving reanalysis or forcing regional model, due to better-resolved topography or through better representation of ocean-land contrasts. However, the nature and magnitude of the improvement in the wind speed representation vary depending on the model, the season, the altitude, or the region. Among seasons, the improvement is usually larger in summer than winter. CPRCMs generally display gains at low and medium range altitudes. In addition, despite some shortcomings in comparison to ERA-Interim, which can be attributed to the assimilation of wind observations on the coast, the CPRCMs outperform the coarser regional climate models, both along the coast and inland.

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The added value of km-scale simulations to describe temperature over complex orography: the CORDEX FPS-Convection multi-model ensemble runs over the Alps

Cited by 15 publications

References 83 publications

The First Ensemble of Kilometre-Scale Simulations of a Hydrological Year over the Third Pole

The First Ensemble of Kilometre-Scale Simulations of a Hydrological Year over the Third Pole

Future heat extremes and impacts in a convection permitting climate ensemble over Germany

The added value of the km-scale multimodel ensemble of the FPS-Convection to describe wind speed over the Alps

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