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Do Empty Creditors Matter?Evidence from Distressed Exchange Offers
András DanisAbstract I examine the effect of credit default swaps (CDSs) on the restructuring of distressed firms.Theoretically, I show that if bondholders are insured with CDSs, the participation rate in a restructuring decreases. Using a sample of distressed exchange offers, I estimate that the participation rate is 29% lower if the firm has CDSs traded on its debt, compared to an unconditional mean of 54%. I use the introduction of the Big Bang protocol as a natural experiment. The results suggest that firms with CDSs find it difficult to reduce debt out-ofcourt, which is inefficient because it increases the likelihood of future bankruptcy.Keywords: credit default swaps, CDS, empty creditor, restructuring, bankruptcy Abstract I examine the effect of credit default swaps (CDSs) on the restructuring of distressed firms. Theoretically, I show that if bondholders are insured with CDSs, the participation rate in a restructuring decreases. Using a sample of distressed exchange offers, I estimate that the participation rate is 29% lower if the firm has CDSs traded on its debt, compared to an unconditional mean of 54%. I use the introduction of the Big Bang protocol as a natural experiment. The results suggest that firms with CDSs find it difficult to reduce debt out-of-court, which is inefficient because it increases the likelihood of future bankruptcy. For example, if the CDS insures the face value of debt, creditors will reject any offers by a financially distressed company for payments below face value. Thus, if a firm's lenders are empty creditors, i.e. insured with CDSs, the firm cannot easily reduce its debt in an out-ofcourt restructuring prior to bankruptcy. I present evidence consistent with this hypothesis.Credit default swaps pose a problem because failure to renegotiate debt privately can increase the likelihood of future bankruptcy, which can incur deadweight losses. In addition, the existence of CDSs might also be relevant for firms that are not currently distressed. Their investment and financing decisions today can depend on the possibility that debt may be difficult to renegotiate if the firm encounters financial distress. Also, the question addressed in this paper relates to the broader topic of the net welfare effects of CDSs in the economy.Bolton and Oehmke (2011) argue that CDS contracts introduce certain inefficiencies, but that t...