The Afghan Peace Process: Domestic Fault Lines

Abstract

The intra-Afghan dialogue stalled despite hectic diplomatic efforts by the United States, North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Russia, and other countries to revitalize the dialogue and reach a political settlement before Western troops left Afghanistan. This article argues that there were three main reasons for disagreement between the Afghan government and the Taliban, and these issues remained a major stumbling block in the peace process and will prevent lasting peace. First, the Taliban were unwilling to reduce violence or declare a "permanent and comprehensive ceasefire," as stated in the US-Taliban peace deal. Second, the Taliban would not accept Afghanistan's democratic political system and insisted on establishing an "Islamic Emirate." The group also showed its reluctance to respect women's rights and advances made with respect to their social position.Third, the Taliban consistently refused to respect ethnic and religious tolerance of minorities, especially the Shia Hazara. The Hazara have declared that they will take up arms to protect themselves against the Taliban's return to power in Kabul, which does not bode well for peace and stability in Afghanistan.On February 29, 2020, US special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad and Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the political chief of the Taliban's Qatar office, signed the US-Taliban conditional peace deal in Doha, Qatar. According to the agreement, the United States and NATO agreed to withdraw all their forces-trainers, advisers and private security contractors-from Afghanistan in 14 months if the Taliban kept all their commitments. For their part, the Taliban pledged to prevent al-Qaeda and other terrorist organizations from operating and acting against the United States and its allies in territory under its control, and to start peace talks with the Afghan government in Oslo, Norway, 172

Afghanistan, regional powers and non‐traditional security threats and challenges

“…The US-Taliban limited peace deal and the establishment of the IEA by the Taliban in August 2021 does not augur for peace and stability in Afghanistan. Verma (2021b) provides three reasons why the intra-Afghan dialogue failed and why political instability will be rife in Afghanistan with the country predicted to suffer from protracted violence and even a civil war. First, the Taliban always wanted to establish the IEA and formed a government dominated more or less by the group rather than an inclusive government including women and the minority Tajiks, Uzbeks and the Hazaras.…”

“…Various anti‐Taliban groups have coalesced to form the National Resistance Front (NRF) to increase their collective bargaining power vis‐à‐vis the Taliban. Although it is too early to say that the NRF will be able to offer credible opposition to the Taliban, the situation might change if other groups including the Hazaras join the NRF after being disillusioned by Taliban rule or due the Taliban's atrocities against these groups (Verma, 2021b).…”

“…Second, the Taliban wanted to impose Sharia law and have curtailed the hard‐won rights of women, and the gains and advances women have made in the Afghan society in the last two decades. Despite assertions from some analysts that the Taliban has changed and become more moderate, Verma (2021b) illustrates that the Taliban has not changed and the group continues to subscribe to its medieval Islamicist ideology derived from Sunni Deobandi Islam. It has continued its atrocities against women and curtailed their rights.…”

Instability in Afghanistan and Non‐traditional Security Threats: A Public Good Problem?

“…Although the United Nations (UN) and the European Union have promised to provide humanitarian aid of US$1 billion and US$1.2 billion respectively to be administered in Afghanistan through international organisations, additional assistance is needed from the international community to tide over the humanitarian crisis. Additionally, the Taliban, an insurgent group, will find it extremely difficult to administer and govern a multi-ethnic country (Verma, 2021a).…”

“…Many analysts and policy makers agree that the Taliban's unwillingness to form an inclusive government, atrocities against the minorities, poor governance and mal-administration, a faltering economy and humanitarian crisis will exacerbate the political, social, ethnic and religious fault lines in Afghanistan and may lead to civil war and chaos in Afghanistan reminiscent of the 1990s. This will also exacerbate non-traditional security threats such as Islamic fundamentalist and transnational terrorism, drugs/narcotics trade and human migration/refugee crisis in the neighbouring countries and beyond (Verma, 2021a; also see contributors in the special section).…”