The aluminium demand risk of terawatt photovoltaics for net zero emissions by 2050

Abstract

The broad electri cation scenario of recent photovoltaics roadmaps predicts that by 2050 we will need more than 60 TW of photovoltaics installed and be producing up to 4.5 TW of additional capacity each year if we are to rapidly reduce emissions to 'net-zero' and limit global warming to < 2°C. Given that after 2020, just over 700 GWp was installed, this represents an enormous manufacturing task which will create a demand for a number of metals. We show here that growth to 60 TW of photovoltaics could require up to 480 Mt of aluminium by 2050. A key concern for this aluminium demand is its large global warming potential. We predict the cumulative emissions arising from emission reduction scenarios in China and show that rapid decarbonisation of the electricity grid within 10 years will be required if they are to be kept below 1000 Mt CO2e by 2050. MainIf global warming is to be limited to less than 2°C, emissions need to be drastically curtailed to close to net zero before 2050 1 . Various technology mitigation scenarios have been proposed to address this challenge 2-7 . However, these scenarios differ signi cantly in the extent that different clean energy technologies contribute to the required emissions reduction, and particularly, in terms of the anticipated role of solar photovoltaics (PV) 2,4−6 . Historically, technology roadmaps have signi cantly under-estimated the installed PV capacity 8,9 , and energy agencies are continually revising their technology scenarios to take into account the driving effect that rapidly reducing PV module costs 4 are having on installed PV capacities worldwide. The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently markedly increased its renewable energy projections, with solar PV predicted to now provide 32% of the world's total electricity demand by 2050. They estimate that this will require an installed PV capacity of ~ 14 TWp and annual installations of 630 GW each year by 2050 3 . However, although this target represents a large increase in the predicted contribution of solar PV over their previous reports, it still falls short of the projections of the International Technology Roadmap for PV (ITRPV)'s broad electri cation scenario which forecasts that the total capacity of installed PV needs to be at least 60 TWp by 2050 with annual installations of 4.5 TWp being required close to that date 4 . This ambitious target is projected because of the extremely low cost of PV generated electricity compared to all other energy sources. In the last 10 years, the spot price of PV modules has decreased by about 90% to be less than US$0.20/W 10 and the median levelised cost of electricity from solar PV is < US$50/MWh; less than costs of electricity from both coal and gas in many countries including the US, China, India and Australia 11 .There is now a consensus that we will need tens of TW of installed PV capacity and annual production will need to approach TW levels by 2050 9 or even sooner in order to decarbonise electricity grids 10 . Given that, at the end of 2020, there was just over 700 ...

Securing Indium Utilization for High-Tech and Renewable Energy Industries

“…The cumulative installed capacity of future solar photovoltaic (PV) generation will depend to a large extent on the global energy scenarios adopted. According to the latest official reports, three potential scenarios were analyzed: 8.5, 14, and 60 TW , of cumulative PV capacity in 2050. In addition, the PV technology is prone to variations and developments of novel technologies.…”

“…Deployment of renewable energy sources, particularly solar photovoltaics, will play an important role in this transition and is expected to meet 32% of the world's total electricity demand by 2050. 7,8 Under global energy scenarios, the installed capacity of future photovoltaic (PV) generation varies widely, from 4.5 to 65 kW to meet the long-term climate goals Paris Agreement by 2050. 9−11 The global capacity of installed PV in 2020 was nearly 130−135 GW, reaching approximately a cumulative capacity of 700 GW worldwide.…”

“…9−11 The global capacity of installed PV in 2020 was nearly 130−135 GW, reaching approximately a cumulative capacity of 700 GW worldwide. 6,8 Therefore, to achieve net zero emission in 2050, demand of PV will continue to grow in the coming years, along with the necessity for raw materials such as indium. Indium has been identified as a critical material by the U.S., European Commission, Japan, and the United Nations Environment Programme due to its applications, economic importance, scarcity, lack of substitutes, and limited future availability.…”

“…Moreover, to limit global warming to less than 2 °C, greenhouse gas emissions must be significantly curtailed to be close to net zero by 2050. Deployment of renewable energy sources, particularly solar photovoltaics, will play an important role in this transition and is expected to meet 32% of the world’s total electricity demand by 2050. , Under global energy scenarios, the installed capacity of future photovoltaic (PV) generation varies widely, from 4.5 to 65 kW to meet the long-term climate goals Paris Agreement by 2050. − The global capacity of installed PV in 2020 was nearly 130–135 GW, reaching approximately a cumulative capacity of 700 GW worldwide. , Therefore, to achieve net zero emission in 2050, demand of PV will continue to grow in the coming years, along with the necessity for raw materials such as indium.…”

A new catalyst based on disposed red mud for the efficient electrochemical reduction of nitrate-to-ammonia

“…6 This worsens with the increased demand for and production of aluminium and thus the increased amounts of RM byproduct worldwide. 7,8 The aluminium industry also heavily depends on electricity supply, which is mainly from fossil fuels, leading to emission of global-warming gas. Therefore, the utilization of both RM and renewable energy is highly demanding.…”