The Analysis of Wheat Yield Variability Based on Experimental Data from 2008–2018 to Understand the Yield Gap

Abstract

Among European countries, Poland has the largest gap in the grain yield of winter wheat, and thus the greatest potential to reduce this yield gap. This paper aims to recognize the main reasons for winter wheat yield variability and shed the light on possible reasons for this gap. We used long-term datasets (2008–2018) from individual commercial farms obtained by the Laboratory of Economics of Seed and Plant Breeding of Plant Breeding and Acclimatization Institute (IHAR)-National Research Institute (Poland) and the experimental fields with high, close to potential yield, in the Polish Post-Registration Variety Testing System in multi-environmental trials. We took into account environment, management and genetic variables. Environment was considered through soil class representing soil fertility. For the crop management, the rates of mineral fertilization, the use of pesticides and the type of pre-crop were considered. Genotype was represented by the independent variable year of cultivar registration or year of starting its cultivation in Poland. The analysis was performed using the CART (Classification and Regression Trees). The winter wheat yield variability was mostly dependent on the amount of nitrogen fertilization applied, soil quality, and type of pre-crop. Genetic variable was also important, which means that plant breeding has successfully increased genetic yield potential especially during the last several years. In general, changes to management practices are needed to lower the variability of winter wheat yield and possibly to close the yield gap in Poland.

Prediction of Grain Yield and Gluten Content in Winter Bread Wheat Based on Nutrient Content in Plant Parts during the Critical Cereal Window

“…Such a large difference indicates the key impact of N f concentrations on the GY, regardless of the weather patterns in a given year. The observed level of variability in winter wheat yields is typical under the production conditions in Poland [34]. Grain yields in 2015 and 2016 increased according to a linear regression model in response to increasing N f rates, thus pointing to N supply as a key limiting factor.…”

The Effects of Different Sowing Dates on the Autumn Development and Yield of Winter Wheat in Central Lithuania

“…Wheat is one of the most important crops in ensuring that the food needs of the human population are met [1]. The maximum yield of winter wheat in individual cases already reaches 10 tons ha −1 , mainly achieved in temperate latitudes [2]. High winter wheat productivity is ensured by paying attention to various aspects of winter wheat cultivation, such as the development of varieties that are suitable for specific regions, resistance to extreme weather conditions [3] or diseases [4], etc.…”

Magnesium Fertilization Increases Nitrogen Use Efficiency in Winter Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)

“…A realistic determination of the maximum attainable yield, as the basis for calculating the YG, requires local data that reflect both the short-term variability in weather conditions and the variability in management factors affecting the actual yield. The order of these factors for wheat in Poland, in descending order, is nitrogen (N), fore-crop, soil class, available potassium content, crop protection level—fungicide and foliar fertilization, and available phosphorus content [ 3 ]. Another method for the calculation of the YG, which is, in fact, simpler to use, is the concept of the nitrogen gap [ 4 , 5 ].…”