The annual cycle and interannual variability of atmospheric pressure in the vicinity of the North Pole

Cullather, Richard I.; Lynch, A. H.

doi:10.1002/joc.942

Cited by 35 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 52 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…In the record of high-wind events in the Chukchi-Beaufort region from 1945 to the present, the frequency of storms was relatively low from the late 1960s through the mid 1980s, though higher before and after that period (Lynch at al., 2004). This pattern is consistent with the dramatic shift toward low-pressure systems over the central Arctic Basin observed in the late 1980s, resulting from the shift of a largescale air mass to the North Pacific (Walsh et al, 1996;Cullather and Lynch, 2003).…”

Section: The Larger Contextsupporting

confidence: 74%

An Arctic Disaster and its Policy Implications

Brunner

Lynch²,

Pardikes³

et al. 2004

ARCTIC

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

ABSTRACT. The purpose of the research reported here is to help the community in Barrow, Alaska, clarify its vulnerability to extreme weather events, and devise better-informed policies for reducing that vulnerability and adapting to climate variability and change. We examine the worst disaster on record there-a storm that struck on 3 October 1963-from different disciplinary perspectives and in the context of other severe storms. The major policy responses to date have been a beach nourishment program, a feasibility study of additional means of erosion control, and an emergency management plan. Additional possible responses have been identified in the community's cumulative experience of these storms, but have not yet been fully explored or implemented. Meanwhile, given inherent uncertainties, it is clear that sound policies will allow for corrective action if and when expectations based on the best available knowledge and information turn out to be mistaken. It is also clear that the people of Barrow are in the best position to understand the evolving situation and to decide what to do about it.Key words: policy, disaster, extreme events, adaptation, climate change, Barrow, North Slope RÉSUMÉ. Les travaux de recherche que l'on présente ici ont pour but d'aider la collectivité de Barrow (Alaska) à définir son degré de vulnérabilité à des conditions climatiques extrêmes, et à créer des politiques plus éclairées qui réduiraient cette vulnérabilité et favoriseraient l'adaptation à la variabilité et au changement climatiques. On examine le pire désastre jamais enregistré à cet endroit, soit une tempête qui fit rage le 3 octobre 1963, et ce, sous l'angle de différentes disciplines et dans le contexte d'autres grandes tempêtes. Jusqu'à présent, les politiques majeures d'intervention se sont résumées à un programme de recharge de plage, à une étude de faisabilité portant sur des mesures supplémentaires de lutte contre l'érosion et à un plan de gestion des situations d'urgence. L'expérience cumulative de la collectivité relative à ces tempêtes a permis de dégager d'autres interventions possibles, sans qu'elles aient toutefois été explorées à fond ou concrétisées. Entre-temps, vu les incertitudes inhérentes à ce genre de choses, il est évident que des politiques bien pensées permettront l'application de mesures correctives si et quand les prédictions fondées sur les toutes dernières connaissances et informations disponibles s'avèrent erronées. Il est en outre évident que les habitants de Barrow sont les mieux placés pour comprendre comment la situation évolue et pour décider des mesures à prendre.Mots clés: politique, désastre, événement météorologique extrême, adaptation, changement climatique, Barrow, versant Nord Traduit pour la revue Arctic par Nésida Loyer.

show abstract

Section: The Larger Contextsupporting

confidence: 74%

An Arctic Disaster and its Policy Implications

Brunner

Lynch²,

Pardikes³

et al. 2004

ARCTIC

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The geostrophic wind speed derived from NCEP re-analysis SLP at high latitude is usually underestimated by about 8%. [This bias, however, is not significant (Cullather and Lynch 2003;Smith et al 2001;Wylie 2001).] This may translate into an underestimation of the wind stress by about 15%.…”

Section: ͑8͒mentioning

confidence: 97%

Estimating the Sea Ice Compressive Strength from Satellite-Derived Sea Ice Drift and NCEP Reanalysis Data*

Tremblay

Hakakian²

2006

Journal of Physical Oceanography

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Satellite-derived sea ice drift maps and sea level pressure from reanalysis data are used to infer upper and lower bounds on the large-scale compressive strength of Arctic sea ice. To this end, the two datasets are searched for special situations in which the wind forcing and its orientation with respect to the coastline allowed the authors to deduce a mean sea ice compressive strength from simple theory. Many estimates of ice compressive strength were possible for the winter of 1992/93 when the Arctic high was confined to the western Arctic and deep penetration of the Icelandic low produced wind patterns that pushed the ice perpendicular to the coastline in the Beaufort and East Siberian Seas. The winter of 1996/97, on the other hand, was characterized by a well-established Arctic high, producing wind patterns that generally pushed ice along coastlines rather than against them. Results show lower and upper bounds on the sea ice compressive strength parameter of 30 and 40 kN m Ϫ2 is also found in the East Siberian Sea in the first few hundred kilometers from the land, presumably associated with land-fast ice. The proposed mean ice compressive strength estimate is higher than those derived by minimizing the cumulative error between simulated and observed buoy drift trajectories. It is noted that the uncertainties in the estimates derived from models are large (with an unbiased estimate of standard deviation of 8.75 kN m Ϫ2). The estimates of yield strength in isotropic compression presented herein are in good agreement with a previous estimate made during the Arctic Ice Dynamic Joint Experiment, and with in situ ice compressive stress measurements made in the Beaufort Sea.

show abstract

“…This latitude-longitude dataset was reprojected to the National Meteorological Center 47 × 51 octagonal grid, so that each data point is approximately equidistant to the surrounding points, with a nominal grid spacing of 190.5 km. Cullather & Lynch (2003) compared NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis SLP data with drifting camp measurements in the Arctic Ocean and found high correlations, although significant seasonal discrepancies with a cold season bias were evident. Further, while they were able to qualitatively reproduce their results using the Arctic Ocean Buoy Program (AOBP) data set, an optimal interpolation of Arctic buoy data and the drifting camp data, they concluded that shortcomings remain which require that error bounds of up to 2 hPa be taken into account.…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Classification of synoptic patterns in the western Arctic associated with extreme events at Barrow, Alaska, USA

Cassano¹,

Lynch²,

Cassano³

et al. 2006

Clim. Res.

103

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The coastal geography of Barrow, Alaska, makes the city vulnerable to weather events that cause flooding and erosion. This study uses the self-organizing map (SOM) algorithm, an unsupervised learning process that codifies large, multivariate datasets onto a 2-dimensional array, or map, to study large-scale circulation patterns associated with temperature and high wind extremes at Barrow. The analysis first uses the SOM algorithm to produce an automated 55 yr synoptic climatology of daily sea level pressure patterns for the western Arctic for August to November, when the area is potentially ice free. The results are in agreement with previous Arctic climatologies, showing the Aleutian Low to be dominant in southern Alaska, and high pressure prevalent over the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas. The SOM algorithm is then used to study circulation patterns associated with temperature and high wind extremes at Barrow. These results show that high winds are associated with patterns containing a strong pressure gradient between the Aleutian Low and the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas and also with patterns that contain a low pressure system to the north of Barrow. High (low) air temperature extreme anomalies are associated with patterns that produce strong, southerly (northerly) air flow at Barrow. This study demonstrates the utility of using SOMs to investigate the relationship between local weather conditions and large-scale patterns. This approach can be applied to future global climate model (GCM) simulations to investigate the impact of changes in large-scale circulation patterns to local extreme events.KEY WORDS: Synoptic climatology · Self-organizing maps · SOM · Large-scale circulation · Extreme events Resale or republication not permitted without written consent of the publisherClim Res 30: [83][84][85][86][87][88][89][90][91][92][93][94][95][96][97] 2006 Barrow is located on the west shore of Point Barrow. Atmospheric and sea ice conditions that can lead to storm surge via Ekman transport and wave setup are caused by synoptic weather patterns that produce high, sustained westerly winds coupled with large fetch (open water or low sea ice concentration in the direction of the wind). In general, these weather patterns consist of a synoptic or mesoscale low pressure system to the north of Barrow and/or a high pressure system to the south. However, while several such events that were extreme enough to cause significant damage have occurred (e.g. Lynch et al. 2003), these are not typical patterns in this area. From earlier Arctic climatologies (Keegan 1958, Reed & Kunkel 1960, Moritz 1979, LeDrew 1983 to more current ones (Serreze et al. 1993, Brümmer et al. 2000, McCabe et al. 2001, the Beaufort/Chukchi sector of the Arctic (Fig. 1) does not exhibit much cyclonic activity, and in fact the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas are an area of frequent anticyclones. These anticyclones, coupled with low pressure in southern Alaska, result in prevailing ENE winds of about 5 m s -1 at Barrow (Moritz 1979).The basic aim of synoptic c...

show abstract

The annual cycle and interannual variability of atmospheric pressure in the vicinity of the North Pole

Cited by 35 publications

References 52 publications

An Arctic Disaster and its Policy Implications

An Arctic Disaster and its Policy Implications

Estimating the Sea Ice Compressive Strength from Satellite-Derived Sea Ice Drift and NCEP Reanalysis Data*

Classification of synoptic patterns in the western Arctic associated with extreme events at Barrow, Alaska, USA

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About