The anticipatory governance of sustainable futures

Abstract

Chapter 1 Introduction 1.1. Anticipating change 1.2. Problem statement: the future as an object of governance 1.3. Research questions and structure 1.4. Theoretical contributions to main bodies of literature 1.4.1. Unpacking diverse understandings of anticipatory governance 1.4.2. Futures studies and anticipation 1.4.3. Governing sustainability transformations 1.4.4. The politics of anticipation 1.5. Research design and methodology 1.6.Thesis roadmap Chapter 2 Four approaches to anticipatory governance 2.1. Introduction 2.2. Methodology 2.2.1. Identifying and selecting literature 2.2.2. Process and method of review 2.3. Anticipating and seeking to govern the future: a brief overview 2.3.1. Explicit engagement with the concept of anticipatory governance 2.3.2. Implicit engagement with the concept of anticipatory governance 2.4. Four approaches to anticipatory governance: diverse conceptions of the future, actions in the present and ultimate aims 2.4.1. Approach 1: Probable futures, strategic planning and risk reduction 2.4.2. Approach 2: Plausible futures, enhanced preparedness and navigating uncertainty 2.4.3. Approach 3: Pluralistic futures, societal mobilization and co-creating alternatives 2.4.4. Approach 4: Performative futures, critical interrogation, and political implications 2.5. Methods and tools of anticipation: overlapping use and varying ends 2.5.1. Anticipatory tools and methods to assess probable and improbable futures (Approach 1) 2.5.2. Anticipatory tools and methods to explore plausible futures (Approach 2) 2.5.3. Anticipatory tools and methods to imagine pluralistic futures (Approach 3) 2.5.4. Assessing how imagined futures are performative (Approach 4) 2.6. Conclusion Chapter 3 Approaches to anticipatory governance in West Africa 3.1. Introduction 3.2. Four approaches to anticipatory climate governance 3.3. Methodology 3.3.1. Case study region: West Africa 3.3.2. Data collection 3.3.3. Data analysis 3.4. Approaches to anticipatory climate governance in West Africa3.4.1. Anticipation processes and decision-making 3.4.2. Three processes: conceptions of the future, implications for actions in the present and ultimate aims 3.5. Discussion and conclusions 3.5.1. Conflicting assumptions within hybrids of approaches 1 and 2 3.5.2. Placing politics central in anticipatory governance 3.5.3. Consequences for anticipatory climate governance in West Africa 3.5.4. Reflections on the framework Chapter 4 Anticipatory governance of sustainability transformations 4.1. Introduction 4.2. Anticipation for food system transformations 4.3. Methodology 4.3.1. Case study: The Foresight4Food Initiative 4.3.2. Data collection methods 4.3.3. Approach to the data analysis 4.4. Results: Anticipatory governance of food systems in practice 4.4.1. Diverse conceptions of the future 4.4.2. Ultimate aims 4.4.3. Implications for policy action in the present 4.5. Discussion and conclusions 4.5.1. Hybrid approaches and dominant perspectives: privileging prediction and uncertainty over pluralistic transformation and fundamental crit...

Transforming relations between science, policy and society for sustainable futures?

“…However, this preoccupation can become a barrier to change when it cements current perceptions, preferences, and interpretations of these criteria; when it defines credibility by currently dominant scientific paradigms, relevance by current policy frameworks, and legitimacy by current interests. As Muiderman (2022) has shown, when perceptions of relevant knowledge are cemented, researchers are likely to stick to producing knowledge that is considered relevant in the here and now, and abstain from developing scenarios of potentially transformative futures. In other words, overlooking the fundamental ambiguity and contingency of how and when knowledge comes to be seen as credible, relevant, and legitimate, limits the potential of CRELE to inform a discussion on what science-policy arrangements are desirable.…”

History of the Futures

“…The ability to imagine and (via anticipative action) accordingly govern the future has become a core aspect of sustainability research and practices. This includes foresight practices, like scenarios, visioning processes, and games (Muiderman, 2022a). Anticipation has become a decision-making method of collecting information and data about essential societal aspects (Pedersen and Manhice, 2020;Shove et al, 2012) or behavior (Bourguignon, 2016).…”

“…In essence, Climate change disproportionately affects vulnerable and marginalized communities (Muiderman, 2022b) and the asymmetries are argued to increase poverty, gender vulnerability, hunger, malnutrition, health, insecurity, and climate change-induced migration of vulnerable populations (Daoudy et al, 2022;Dellmuth et al, 2018;IPCC, 2022b;Terry, 2009). Scenarios are yet to embrace consensus on socially, culturally, and politically diverse future images into the narratives (Muiderman, 2022b), justifying an increased focus on the inclusion of equity, fairness, and the distribution of burdens and benefits in scenario development and policy recommendations is crucial.…”

“…In essence, Climate change disproportionately affects vulnerable and marginalized communities (Muiderman, 2022b) and the asymmetries are argued to increase poverty, gender vulnerability, hunger, malnutrition, health, insecurity, and climate change-induced migration of vulnerable populations (Daoudy et al, 2022;Dellmuth et al, 2018;IPCC, 2022b;Terry, 2009). Scenarios are yet to embrace consensus on socially, culturally, and politically diverse future images into the narratives (Muiderman, 2022b), justifying an increased focus on the inclusion of equity, fairness, and the distribution of burdens and benefits in scenario development and policy recommendations is crucial. Thus, a manual on climate change ethics might be relevant for guiding decision-making, e.g., on how to distribute investments between mitigation and adaptation and how to balance the costs and benefits of mitigation measures (and non-climate benefits) of emissions reductions-guiding a just transition away from a fossil-fuel-based global economy .…”

“…Often scenarios are used to visualize possible futures (Poli, 2010b). While anticipation processes have the ability and aim to open up future possibilities , I could have focused more on potential closing-down dynamics (Muiderman, 2022b). This could have resulted in more specific recommendations of how the scenario process and communication of scenarios could become more transparent and include explicit illustrations of what choices are made and what is prioritized and marginalized (Jasanoff, 2004;Muiderman, 2022b).…”