The application of a calibrated 3D ballistic trajectory model to ballistic hazard assessments at Upper Te Maari, Tongariro

Fitzgerald, Rebecca H.; Tsunematsu, Kae; Kennedy, Ben; Bréard, E.; Lube, Gert; Wilson, Thomas; Jolly, Arthur D.; Pawson, J.; Rosenberg, M. D.; Cronin, Shane J.

doi:10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2014.04.006

Cited by 64 publications

(90 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…An exception is the generic investigation by Neri et al (1999) that adresses the hazards posed by phreatic-related surges, blasts and toxic gases using simple numerical simulations. A second example is the case study presented by Fitzgerald et al (2014), who combined detailed field data analysis from a phreatic eruption at the Upper Te Maari Crater in 2012 with the simulation of 3D ballistic trajectories to assess ballistic hazards at this volcano.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Phreatic eruptions at crater lakes: occurrence statistics and probabilistic hazard forecast

et al. 2017

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Phreatic eruptions, although posing a serious threat to people in crater proximity, are often underestimated and have been comparatively understudied. The detailed eruption catalogue for Ruapehu Volcano (New Zealand) provides an exceptional opportunity to study the statistics of recurring phreatic explosions at a crater lake volcano. We performed a statistical analysis on this phreatic eruption database, which suggests that phreatic events at Ruapehu do not follow a Poisson process. Instead they tend to cluster, which is possibly linked to an increased heat flow during periods of a more shallow-seated magma column. Larger explosions are more likely to follow shortly after smaller events, as opposed to longer periods of quiescence. The absolute probability for a phreatic explosion to occur at Ruapehu within the next month is about 10%, when averaging over the last 70 years of recording. However, the frequency of phreatic explosions is significantly higher than the background level in years prior to magmatic episodes. Combining clast ejection simulations with a Bayesian event tree tool (PyBetVH) we perform a probabilistic assessment of the hazard due to ballistic ejecta in the summit area of Ruapehu, which is frequently visited by hikers. Resulting hazard maps show that the absolute probability for the summit to be affected by ballistics within the next month is up to 6%. The hazard is especially high on the northern lakeshore, where there is a mountain refuge. Our results contribute to the local hazard assessment as well as the general perception of hazards due to steam-driven explosions.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Phreatic eruptions at crater lakes: occurrence statistics and probabilistic hazard forecast

et al. 2017

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“…1d) are also common occurrences from ballistics during explosive eruptions. The high kinetic and thermal energy of ballistics can puncture, dent, melt, burn and knock down structures and their associated systems, such as power supply and telecommunication masts; crater roads; and crush and potentially ignite crops (Booth 1979;Calvari et al 2006;Pistolesi et al 2008;Alatorre-Ibargüengoitia et al 2012;Wardman et al 2012;Maeno et al 2013;Fitzgerald et al 2014;Jenkins et al 2014). Blong (1981), Pomonis et al (1999) and Jenkins et al (2014) estimate a ballistic only needs 400-1000 J of kinetic energy to penetrate a metal sheet roof, far less than the estimated kinetic energy of ballistics (*10 6 J) from VEI 2-4 eruptions (Alatorre-Ibargüengoitia et al 2012).…”

Section: Ballistic Hazard and Risk Managementmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Blong (1981), Pomonis et al (1999) and Jenkins et al (2014) estimate a ballistic only needs 400-1000 J of kinetic energy to penetrate a metal sheet roof, far less than the estimated kinetic energy of ballistics (*10 6 J) from VEI 2-4 eruptions (Alatorre-Ibargüengoitia et al 2012). The distribution (distance from vent, direction, area and density) of ejected ballistics is controlled by the explosivity, type, size and direction of explosive eruptions, and usually creates spatially variable deposits (Gurioli et al 2013;Breard et al 2014;Fitzgerald et al 2014). Generally, the distance travelled and the total area impacted by ballistics increases with increasing explosivity, i.e.…”

Section: Ballistic Hazard and Risk Managementmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The directionality of these blasts is often unpredictable, and can be influenced by external factors such as landslides (Christiansen 1980;Breard et al 2014), making it difficult to deterministically forecast future ballistic distributions. Mapped deposits from past eruptions are often not symmetrical around the vent, reflecting this directionality (Minakami 1942;Fudali and Melson 1972;Steinberg and Lorenz 1983;Kilgour et al 2010;Houghton et al 2011;Gurioli et al 2013;Fitzgerald et al 2014), and are sometimes the result of the crater and surrounding topography Tsunematsu et al 2016). Detailed descriptions and maps of ballistic impact distributions are rare, but those published may contain some of the following data: maximum ballistic travel distances (Steinberg and Lorenz 1983;Robertson et al 1998;Kaneko et al 2016); the outer edges of a ballistic field (Minakami 1942;Nairn and Self 1978;Yamagishi and Feebrey 1994); and/or maximum particle (Nairn and Self 1978;Steinberg and Lorenz 1983;Robertson et al 1998;Swanson et al 2012) or crater size (Robertson et al 1998;Maeno et al 2013;Kaneko et al 2016).…”

Section: Ballistic Hazard and Risk Managementmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Communication and Risk Management of Volcanic Ballistic Hazards

Fitzgerald

Kennedy

Wilson

et al. 2017

Advances in Volcanology

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Tourists, hikers, mountaineers, locals and volcanologists frequently visit and reside on and around active volcanoes, where ballistic projectiles are a lethal hazard. The projectiles of lava or solid rock, ranging from a few centimetres to several metres in diameter, are erupted with high kinetic, and sometimes thermal, energy. Impacts from projectiles are amongst the most frequent causes of fatal volcanic incidents and the cause of hundreds of thousands of dollars of damage to buildings, infrastructure and property worldwide. Despite this, the assessment of risk and communication of ballistic hazard has received surprisingly little study. Here, we review the research to date on ballistic distributions, impacts, hazard and risk assessments and maps, and methods of communicating and managing ballistic risk including how these change with a changing risk environment. The review suggests future improvements to the communication and management of ballistic hazard.

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“…However, occurrence of these flows has itself not been well observed. On August 6, 2012, a volcano erupted at Te Maari, Tongariro in New Zealand Fitzgerald et al 2014;Lube et al 2014); however, the eruption was only indirectly observed because Open Access *Correspondence: teruki-oikawa@aist.go.jp 1 Geological Survey of Japan, AIST, 1-1-1 Higashi, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8567, Japan Full list of author information is available at the end of the article it occurred at night. The actual timing and origin of the pyroclastic flows accompanying phreatic eruption occurrence in a series of eruptions thus remain unclear.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reconstruction of the 2014 eruption sequence of Ontake Volcano from recorded images and interviews

et al. 2016

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A phreatic eruption at Mount Ontake (3067 m) on September 27, 2014, led to 64 casualties, including missing people. In this paper, we clarify the eruption sequence of the 2014 eruption from recorded images (photographs and videos obtained by climbers) and interviews with mountain guides and workers in mountain huts. The onset of eruption was sudden, without any clear precursory surface phenomena (such as ground rumbling or strong smell of sulfide). Our data indicate that the eruption sequence can be divided into three phases. Phase 1: The eruption started with dry pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) caused by ash column collapse. The PDCs flowed down 2.5 km SW and 2 km NW from the craters. In addition, PDCs moved horizontally by approximately 1.5 km toward N and E beyond summit ridges. The temperature of PDCs at the summit area partially exceeded 100 °C, and an analysis of interview results suggested that the temperature of PDCs was mostly in the range of 30-100 °C. At the summit area, there were violent falling ballistic rocks. Phase 2: When the outflow of PDCs stopped, the altitude of the eruption column increased; tephra with muddy rain started to fall; and ambient air temperature decreased. Falling ballistic rocks were almost absent during this phase. Phase 3: Finally, muddy hot water flowed out from the craters. These models reconstructed from observations are consistent with the phreatic eruption models and typical eruption sequences recorded at similar volcanoes.

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The application of a calibrated 3D ballistic trajectory model to ballistic hazard assessments at Upper Te Maari, Tongariro

Cited by 64 publications

References 27 publications

Phreatic eruptions at crater lakes: occurrence statistics and probabilistic hazard forecast

Phreatic eruptions at crater lakes: occurrence statistics and probabilistic hazard forecast

The Communication and Risk Management of Volcanic Ballistic Hazards

Reconstruction of the 2014 eruption sequence of Ontake Volcano from recorded images and interviews

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