The Arab Spring: Causes, Conditions, and Driving Forces

Гринин, Леонид; Korotayev, Andrey

doi:10.1007/978-3-030-86468-2_23

Cited by 43 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 117 publications

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“…Libya in 2011 and Yemen in 2011-2015 also organically fit the wave of the Arab Spring (Korotayev et al 2014;Grinin and Korotayev 2022). The cases of Iraq in 2003 and Ukraine in 2014 are somewhat more complicated, but here, with some reservations, one can find traces of global revolutionary waves.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 83%

Mechanisms of State Disintegration. A Global Analysis

Shevsky¹

2022

jogs

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As the events of the 'Arab Spring' and the Ukrainian crisis have shown, the state disintegration is a critical phenomenon for the entire World System and geopolitical balance. An increasingly accelerating globalization will inevitably lead to new state disintegrations and therefore, the study of the regularities of this process is an urgent task. The article attempts to outline some patterns of state disintegration in the past and present. The main emphasis of the research is put on the study of the elite conflict causes as one of the most important factors of disintegration. Based on the existing literature, the two most common disintegration mechanisms are considered, which have been defined as 'elite-centric ' and 'state-centric.' In the implementation of the 'elite-centric' mechanism, the main cause of the elite conflict is the elites' actions, while in the implementation of the 'state-centric' -those of the state. The study shows that the structural reasons for the 'elite-centric' mechanism of state disintegration are a significant actual or institutionalized concentration of resources in the hands of a narrow elite circle and a legal political competition. The structural reasons for the 'state-centric' mechanism of state disintegration are the concentration of resources and means for their production in the hands of the state and a complete absence of legal political competition.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 83%

Mechanisms of State Disintegration. A Global Analysis

Shevsky¹

2022

jogs

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“…We have called this process the reconfiguration of the World System. This reconfiguration can occur in a variety of ways (see below), including various protest and revolutionary actions (see Grinin and Korotayev 2022b;Korotayev, Is-saev et al 2022;; see also Grinin 2009aGrinin , 2009bGrinin , 2010Grinin , 2012aGrinin and Korotayev 2010b, 2012b. This idea may be exemplified by the wave of revolutionary movements around the world in 2019 (see Selbin 2022).…”

Section: Reconfiguration Of the World System And Its Manifestationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Twenty-First Century Revolutions as a Factor in the Reconfiguration of the World System

Grinin,

Grinin

2023

JGS

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At present the World System and world order are undergoing dramatic transformations. Revolutions definitely will be an integral part of these systemic changes; therefore, their numbers as well as the world-system effect are likely to be significant. In this article, the authors analyze in what way the twenty-first century revolutions examined in this article be connected with the transformations of the World System and world order. The authors' argument is based on the theory of the periodical catch-ups experienced by the political component of the World System, which tends to lag behind the economic component. Such gaps are eventually bridged, but not in a smooth way. On the contrary, this catch-up is likely to be rather complex, turbulent and conflictive. The twenty-first century revolutions appear to be part of a broad and conflict-ridden process of catch-up of the World-System's political component to its economic component. This catch-up provokes strong structural transformations, which the authors describe as the reconfiguration of the World System. They think that with the Arab Spring there started a reconfiguration of the World System that will remain associated with revolutionary processes in the twenty-first century. The authors expect that in connection with the political catch-up the number of revolutions as well as their role as a means of the world-system transformation will not decrease, but in some respects may even increase noticeably. Anton Grinin and Leonid Grinin analyze the future of revolutions in terms of their typology and also of some other aspects, namely: 1) the evaluation of their number in comparison with the previous period; 2) their role as a tool defining the future progress of societies and the World System; 3) the scale and power of revolutions; 4) the possibility of revolutionary waves, and 5) possible changes of the forms of revolutionary events.

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“…It is obvious that revolutionary waves are triggered when revolutions in some societies affect other societies, and this is determined by geographical proximity, interactions between revolutionary elites, similarity of existing situation and attractiveness of an example (on the typology of causes of revolutionary uprisings see Rozov 2022). Diffusion of a revolutionary wave is also related to common features characterizing culture, the position within the World System (see Grinin 2022f, 2022g, 2022e) or peculiarities of the development of particular groups of countries (this can be exemplified by the revolutionary wave in the Arab countries that started in the late 2010s; see Grinin and Korotayev 2022b;Kuznetsov 2022;Korotayev and Zinkina 2022;Akhmedov 2022;Barmin 2022;Issaev et al 2022).…”

Section: Revolutionary Wavesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Revolutionary Process of the 20th Century: A Quantitative Analysis

Гринин¹,

Гринин²

2022

HISTORY &Amp; MATHEMATICS: Entropy and Destabilization

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With the accelerated process of modernization the number of revolutions has increased. The 20 th century witnessed many events of this kind. The authors analyze the main features of the twentieth-century revolutions, and their difference from those of the 19 th century. In the 20 th century, revolutionary activities increasingly moved from the World System core to its semi-periphery or even to the periphery (in the 19 th century, though they often happened not in the core, but close to it, which sometimes allowed countries that survived the revolution to move to the core). As a result, the influence of revolutions on the historical process changed and their role as driving forces of progress in respect of the World System generally decreased. Also, guerilla warfare in the revolutionary societies of the periphery and semi-periphery became very common. New types of revolution emerged, and less widespread types further diffused. First of all, these were Communist revolutions, and toward the end of the century as a result of the decline of Communism -anti-communist ones as well as powermodernist and others. The authors offer a new typology of revolutions. The twentieth-century revolutionary process is described in chronological order as comprising four revolutionary waves and intervening periods (like the 1930s, or the 1950s -1970s) when revolutionary waves were not observed. Significant

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The Arab Spring: Causes, Conditions, and Driving Forces

Cited by 43 publications

References 117 publications

Mechanisms of State Disintegration. A Global Analysis

Mechanisms of State Disintegration. A Global Analysis

The Twenty-First Century Revolutions as a Factor in the Reconfiguration of the World System

Revolutionary Process of the 20th Century: A Quantitative Analysis

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