The Arctic has warmed four times faster than the globe since 1980

Rantanen, Mika; Karpechko, Alexey; Lipponen, Antti; Nordling, Kalle; Hyvärinen, Otto; Ruosteenoja, Kimmo; Vihma, Timo; Laaksonen, Ari

doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-654081/v1

Cited by 20 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 62 publications

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“…This robust phenomenon known as Arctic amplification, emerged relatively recently (England et al, 2021) and is one of the prominent indications of climate change (Koenigk et al, 2020;Previdi et al, 2021). However, recently Rantanen et al (2021) showed that during the last 40 years the pace of Arctic warming is almost four times that of the globe as a whole, which is higher than previously reported. Arctic amplification occurs in all seasons except boreal summer, with the strongest warming in fall and winter (Cohen et al, 2020;Previdi et al, 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 90%

Causal model evaluation of Arctic-midlatitude teleconnections in CMIP6

Galytska

Weigel

Handorf

et al. 2022

Preprint

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In this study, we apply causal discovery to analyse causal links among key processes that contribute to Arctic-midlatitude teleconnections. First, we calculate the causal dependencies from observations. We then evaluate climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) via a comparison of their causal graphs for the period of 1979-2019 with those derived from observations. Based on observations, we show that the increase (decline) of near-surface Arctic temperature is associated not only with the reduction (increase) of sea ice over the Barents and Kara seas, but also with the strengthening (weakening) of atmospheric blocking over central Asia. We show that the near-surface westerly winds are strongly associated with the phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Observations show that the phase of NAO is connected with the polar vortex (PV), which is affected by the strengthening of the poleward eddy heat flux at 100 hPa. The analysis of CMIP6 historical simulations is in good agreement with the observations but reveals a negative connection between near-surface Arctic temperature and sea ice over Barents and Kara seas, which was not found in observations during December-January-February 1979-2019. Moreover, climate models simulate a more robust link between Arctic temperature and Barents and Kara sea ice towards the end of the century. The analysis of future changes in the Arctic-midlatitude teleconnections during cold seasons 2059-2099 also reveals that the connection between the Aleutian Low and the poleward eddy heat flux is expected to become more robust than in the analysed past.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 90%

Causal model evaluation of Arctic-midlatitude teleconnections in CMIP6

Galytska

Weigel

Handorf

et al. 2022

Preprint

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“…Глобальное изменение климата затронуло Фенноскандию: повысилась годовая температура воздуха, минимальные температуры в безморозный период, а также увеличился вегетационный период [Karlsen et al, 2009;Blinova and Chmielewski, 2015;Marshall et al, 2016;Rantanen et al, 2022]. В отношении осадков тренды плохо выражены [Aalto et al, 2016;Kivinen et al, 2017], однако изменение гидрологического режима заболоченных территорий прогнозируемо [Kreplin et al, 2021], и именно спад грунтовых вод может модифицировать продуктивность и состав сообществ бореальных болот [Mäkiranta et al, 2018].…”

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Population demography of rare sedges (Eriophorum gracile and Carex livida) north of the Arctic Circle in Murmansk Region and climate change impacts

Blinova¹

2023

Environmental Dynamics and Global Climate Change

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Species of Cyperaceae are little studied on the population level globally. Also in Murmansk Region, species from this family were not included in long-term population studies of rare plant species whereas other representatives from 21 families were put in [Blinova, 2009]. Experimental works with sedges is often neglected because of taxonomic difficulties and a lack of methods for study populations of this group [Kitamura et al., 2016; Sosnovska, Danylyk, 2017]. Such difficulties became obvious while the IUCN-red data book testing. Of rare sedges studied in this paper Eriophorum gracile is included in the regional Red data book [Kozhin, 2014] and Carex livida is in the Appendix of this book in the group Need of monitoring. The Murmansk Region (6670 N), located in the north-eastern corner of Russian Fennoscandia, is a part of the Atlantic-Arctic zone of temperate belt with a rather mild climate. The region is very heterogeneous. Two latitudinal vegetation zones can be distinguished: tundra and taiga. So, many boreal plant species reach here their northern limit of distribution. Our field work has been conducted in the center part of the region in a recently found rich fen [Blinova, Petrovskij, 2014]. Both study species (Eriophorum gracile и Carex livida) have circumpolar distribution in wetlands of northern hemisphere [Hulten, Fries, 1986], and they are at the northern range in Murmansk Region [Kuzeneva, 1954; Chernov, 1954]. They are polycarpic perennials. An annual shoot has been selected as a counting unit (Fig. 1). In E. gracile only the number of generative shoots has been counted in the field. For non-destructive purposes, from herbarium data, the ratio between generative and vegetative shoots was defined as 1:1. The total population size for this species has been estimated from this ratio. In population of C. livida, the direct counting in the field has been done on 3-5 small plots (0.25*0.25 м2). Lately this value has been recalculated according to the area of population subset. Clusters and subsets have been distinguished in population structure according to suggested aggregation patterns of spatial structure in local plant populations [Blinova, 2018]. Marked population subsets have been monitored several times in the growing period in 2014-2016 years. In the field the boundaries and areas of rich fen and populations (including subsets) have been estimated with the help of GPS navigation device Garmin Dakota 20, in the lab all data are further processed using Garmin Software BaseCamp 4.2.5. Nomenclature for vascular plants is given according to S. K. Czerepanov [1995], for mosses after M. S. Ignatov O. M. Afonina [1992]. Our results show that extremely low (0.2% for Eriophorum gracile) and relatively low (3.1% для Carex livida) population cover is characteristic for a large long-term monitored fen. Spatial aggregation of E. gracile population is structured on very small area (40 м2) whereas C. livida is established on relatively representative area (633 м2). E. gracile develops small population subsets (8 m2 on average) at a distance to next about 70 m in different parts of rich fen. Each such subset contains 9-10 mature individuals on average. C. livida has larger subsets (211 m2 on average) at 30 m away from the neighbor. The size of each subset makes c. 2500 generative shoots. The spatial population pattern of E. gracile shows isolated subsets with single clusters, whereas of C. livida represents isolated subsets with merged clusters. High fluctuations of population size and its subsets are revealed in E. gracile from year to year. The number of generative shoots and air temperature in the growing season (June-September) of the current year establish negative relationship. This study in one of the northernmost populations of Eriophorum gracile confirms other data from different parts of its distribution area that populations of this species are very fragmented and show high fluctuations in the number of generative shoots [Barr 1996; Ksermann, Moser, 1999; Dickenmann, Keel, 2004; Decker et al., 2006; Chatters, Sanderson, 2014]. An analysis of spatial structure of populations has been pointed out that anemochory of E. gracile could be a bottleneck for the population fitness in rich fens conditions, whereas baro- and hydrochory of C. livida promotes further seed germination and survival. Additionally, current climate-changed impacts could cause an extirpation of E. gracile from floristic composition of rich fens, whereas such a threat is minimal for C. livida. Both species need regional protection of their populations. An introduction into culture is essential for further ontogenetic studies and trigger examination of clonal division of labor.

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“…Microbes are the main players in soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition and greenhouse gas production and consumption (e.g., carbon dioxide [CO 2 ], methane [CH 4 ], and nitrous oxide [N 2 O]) in thawing permafrost (Box 1). Air temperatures in northern high latitudes are warming faster than the global average (estimates range from 2–4x; Huang et al, 2017; Overland, 2016; Rantanen, 2021), increasing permafrost temperatures at a global scale (Biskaborn et al, 2019). Terrestrial permafrost regions contain an estimated 1400 to 1600 Pg of soil organic carbon (C), twice the amount in the atmosphere (Hugelius et al, 2014; Schuur et al, 2015, 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Microbiome assembly in thawing permafrost and its feedbacks to climate

Ernakovich

Barbato

Rich

et al. 2022

Global Change Biology

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The physical and chemical changes that accompany permafrost thaw directly influence the microbial communities that mediate the decomposition of formerly frozen organic matter, leading to uncertainty in permafrost-climate feedbacks. Although changes to microbial metabolism and community structure are documented following thaw, the generality of post-thaw assembly patterns across permafrost soils of the world remains uncertain, limiting our ability to predict biogeochemistry and microbial community responses to climate change. Based on our review of the Arctic microbiome, permafrost microbiology, and community ecology, we propose that Assembly Theory provides a framework to better understand thaw-mediated microbiome changes and the implications for community function and climate feedbacks. This framework posits that the prevalence of deterministic or stochastic processes indicates whether the community is well-suited to thrive in changing environmental conditions. We predict that on a short timescale and following high-disturbance thaw (e.g., thermokarst), stochasticity dominates post-thaw microbiome assembly, suggesting that functional predictions will be aided by detailed information about the microbiome. At a longer timescale and lower-intensity disturbance (e.g., active layer deepening), deterministic processes likely dominate, making environmental parameters sufficient for predicting function. We propose that the contribution of stochastic and deterministic processes to post-thaw microbiome assembly depends on the characteristics of the thaw disturbance, as well as characteristics of the microbial community, such as the ecological and phylogenetic breadth of functional guilds, their functional redundancy, and biotic interactions. These propagate across space and time, potentially providing a means for predicting the microbial forcing of greenhouse gas feedbacks to global climate change.

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The Arctic has warmed four times faster than the globe since 1980

Cited by 20 publications

References 62 publications

Causal model evaluation of Arctic-midlatitude teleconnections in CMIP6

Causal model evaluation of Arctic-midlatitude teleconnections in CMIP6

Population demography of rare sedges (Eriophorum gracile and Carex livida) north of the Arctic Circle in Murmansk Region and climate change impacts

Microbiome assembly in thawing permafrost and its feedbacks to climate

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