The ASEAN Regional Forum and Preventive Diplomacy: Built to Fail?

Providers Not Protectors: Institutionalizing Responsible Sovereignty in Southeast Asia

“…35 On the other hand, the forum's failure to implement PD, as others have maintained, stands in contrast to the habitual reliance on PD-type means by other security-oriented processes in the region, such as the SixParty Talks on denuclearizing the Korean peninsula, ASEAN-China cooperation on the South China Sea, or indeed ASEAN in its intramural relations. 36 Crucially, the common assumption regarding ARF security cooperation -that regional flashpoints involving major powers tend to be the most intractable and difficult to resolve -has clearly not precluded the emergence of focused regional initiatives on the very concerns that the ARF, ironically, has patently avoided. Moreover, partly due to the excessively politicized regional discourse on PD, the concept has become saddled, unfairly in many respects, with negative connotations and implications that likely prejudice some ARF members against it, whether for philosophical or political reasons.…”

Invasion by invitation: the role of alliances in the Asia-Pacific

“…ASEAN's track record as an effective and decisive diplomatic actor does not inspire confidence: the grouping has been unable to come up with a coherent internal response to the challenge of China, let alone influence the behaviour of China itself (Westad 2014). Likewise, the ASEAN Regional Forum has been unable to address the major regional security concerns, despite including all the key actors (Emmers and Tan 2011). In the absence of effective regional institutions and leadership…”

The Future of Asian Regionalism: Not What It Used to Be?

“…Finally, there is no distinct institutional basis for the Indo-Pacific thus far, although some of the most energetic and enthusiastic supporters of the idea in academia and some influential think tanks argue that some extant institutions such as the EAS and the ARF reflect 'an essentially Indo-Pacific footprint' (Medcalf 2012: 5). The ARF is notionally supposed to be dedicated to security issues but has had remarkably little impact in addressing them; it has been largely ineffective, primarily because it follows the ASEAN Way and studiously avoids dealing with issues that might discomfort its members (Emmers & Tan 2011). There is no reason a priori to suppose that any new or expanded grouping is likely to prove any more effective.…”