The Asian Monsoon and its Future Change in Climate Models: A Review

Kitoh, Akio

doi:10.2151/jmsj.2017-002

Cited by 99 publications

(57 citation statements)

References 210 publications

(260 reference statements)

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“…These simulations also project a rainfall increase related to the southeast Asian winter monsoon in response to cyclonic wind anomalies over the south China Sea (Siew et al, ). Although evident in some of the analyses dedicated to East Asian winter monsoon projections (e.g., Figure 7 from Ogata et al, and Figure 8 from Kitoh, ), this study is the first to discuss the projected decrease of the IWM circulation over the AS and the driving mechanisms. While both summer and winter Indian monsoonal circulation slowdown in CMIP models have been tracked back to changes in meridional temperature gradients between the IO and the northern IO landmass, the key continental regions involved differ substantially, with the summer monsoon involving temperature changes over the Tibetan Plateau (e.g., Sooraj et al, ) and winter monsoon being mainly influenced by temperature and SLP changes over the Arabian Peninsula and the Thar dessert.…”

Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 83%

Robust Projected Weakening of Winter Monsoon Winds Over the Arabian Sea Under Climate Change

Parvathi

Suresh

Lengaigne

et al. 2017

Geophysical Research Letters

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The response of the Indian winter monsoon to climate change has received considerably less attention than that of the summer monsoon. We show here that all Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models display a consistent reduction (of 6.5% for Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 and 3.5% for 4.5, on an average) of the winter monsoon winds over the Arabian Sea at the end of 21st century. This projected reduction weakens but remains robust when corrected for overestimated winter Arabian Sea winds in CMIP5. This weakening is driven by a reduction in the interhemispheric sea level pressure gradient resulting from enhanced warming of the dry Arabian Peninsula relative to the southern Indian Ocean. The wind weakening reduces winter oceanic heat losses to the atmosphere and deepening of convective mixed layer in the northern Arabian Sea and hence can potentially inhibit the seasonal chlorophyll bloom that contributes substantially to the Arabian Sea annual productivity.

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Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 83%

Robust Projected Weakening of Winter Monsoon Winds Over the Arabian Sea Under Climate Change

Parvathi

Suresh

Lengaigne

et al. 2017

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…In the future, there was an overall tendency for wetter conditions over the northern‐central‐eastern part of Thailand and drier conditions in the southern region in the dry season, and drier conditions over the entire country in the wet season (Figures ). It can be generally deduced in Figure that despite intra‐seasonal differences within a particular season, both the winter and summer regional circulations are projected to weaken, consistent with previous studies (e.g., Siew et al ., ; Kitoh, ). During dry months, it can be seen that the easterly/northeasterly winds over Indochina weaken.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected future changes in mean precipitation over Thailand based on multi‐model regional climate simulations of CORDEX Southeast Asia

Tangang

Juneng

Salimun

et al. 2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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This paper highlights detailed projected changes in rainfall over Thailand for the early (2011–2040), middle (2041–2070) and late (2071–2099) periods of the 21st century under the representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 using the high‐resolution multi‐model simulations of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) Southeast Asia. The ensemble mean is calculated based on seven members consisting of six general circulation models (GCMs) and three regional climate models (RCMs). Generally, the ensemble mean precipitation agrees reasonably well with observations, best represented by the Global Precipitation Climatology Center (GPCC) data, over Thailand during the historical period (1976–2005). However, inter‐model variations can be large among ensemble members especially during dry months (December to March) for northern‐central‐eastern parts, and throughout the year for the southern parts of Thailand. Similarly for future projection periods, inter‐model variations in the sign and magnitude of changes exist. The ensemble means of projected changes in rainfall for both RCPs during dry months show distinct contrast between the northern‐central‐eastern parts and the southern parts of Thailand with generally wetter and drier conditions, respectively. The magnitude of change can be as high as 15% of the historical period, which varies depending on the sub‐region, season, projection period, and RCP scenario. In contrast, generally drier conditions are projected during the wet season (June to September) throughout the country for both RCPs where the rainfall reduction can be as high as 10% in some areas. However, the magnitude of projected rainfall changes of some individual models can be much larger than the ensemble means, exceeding 40% in some cases. These projected changes are related to the changes in regional circulations associated with the winter and summer monsoons, which are projected to weaken. The drier (wetter) condition is associated with the enhanced subsidence (rising motion).

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“…A large number of researches have shown that global warming will increase the overall precipitation associated with the East Asian summer monsoon including the East Asian Meiyu (Kitoh, 2017), but no consensus has been reached on its spatial distribution in CMIP5 models (Liang et al, 2016; Wu et al, 2019). Horinouchi et al (2009) suggested that the Baiu rainband shift southward by the late 21st century, and Meiyu location is unidentified.…”

Section: Meiyu Modelling and Predictionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multiscale Variability of Meiyu and Its Prediction: A New Review

Ping²,

et al. 2020

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Following the description of the basic climatic characteristics of Meiyu in East Asia, we present a comprehensive review of multi–time scale variabilities of the Meiyu together with the long‐term change of extreme precipitation during the Meiyu in this paper. The dynamic prediction skills of the Meiyu on subseasonal to seasonal time scales are further described and illustrated by using present numerical prediction models. For the multi–time scale variabilities of the East Asian Meiyu, they are closely related with the impacts of both quasi‐biweekly and 30–60 day oscillation from both the tropics and the middle and high latitudes on intraseasonal time scale, the influences of El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Tropospheric Biennial Oscillation on interannual time scale, the variations of East Asian summer monsoon on decadal time scale, and the continued impacts of global warming, Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on interdecadal scale and long‐term trend. Under the background of the global warming and the influences of urbanization and aerosol effects, the Meiyu shows some specific characteristics including significantly weakened continuous rain, uneven spatial distribution of precipitation, and increased (decreased) number of strong (weak) precipitation days. Improvements of prediction on rain belt location, total precipitation amount, persistent heavy precipitation events, and low‐frequency variability oscillation during Meiyu season have been achieved with the improved dynamic models of the Beijing Climate Center since 2010.

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The Asian Monsoon and its Future Change in Climate Models: A Review

Cited by 99 publications

References 210 publications

Robust Projected Weakening of Winter Monsoon Winds Over the Arabian Sea Under Climate Change

Robust Projected Weakening of Winter Monsoon Winds Over the Arabian Sea Under Climate Change

Projected future changes in mean precipitation over Thailand based on multi‐model regional climate simulations of CORDEX Southeast Asia

Multiscale Variability of Meiyu and Its Prediction: A New Review

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