The Assessment of Atmospheric Drought During Vegetation Season (According to Standardized Precipitation Index Spi) in Central-Eastern Poland

Radzka, Elżbieta

doi:10.12911/22998993/591

Cited by 16 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…In Poland, C is also used in an agricultural drought monitoring system. It's important to note that the C and Ivanov methods can be used for the warm season (April-October) without significant error; however, errors obtained for the cold season can reach 20-30 mm in the Lublin region (Radzka, 2014).…”

Section: Meteorological Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulating low flows over a heterogeneous landscape in southeastern Poland

Raczyński

Dyer

2021

Hydrological Processes

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This paper presents a scheme describing low flow formation processes in areas with different environmental conditions, including the impact of the selection and explanatory power of predictors for a probabilistic model based on the Logit model. The research was carried out using 29 daily streamflow gauges located in the Lublin region of southeastern Poland for the hydrological period 1976-2018. Analysis resulted in two distinct low flow schemes. In the lowland rivers, low flows occur during the warm season and are related to evaporation exceeding precipitation. In the upland rivers, hydrogeological factors related to water levels in the local Cretaceous aquifers determine the occurrence of low flows. This differentiation affects the quality of the predictive models. For lowland rivers, models based on the climatic water balance with a monthly shift have a better fit, while these models used for upland rivers are characterized by an approximately 10% decrease in accuracy. For upland rivers, the combined C t H t models without shifts produce the best model fit. The generalized precision of the Logit models is around 80%-90%.

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Section: Meteorological Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulating low flows over a heterogeneous landscape in southeastern Poland

Raczyński

Dyer

2021

Hydrological Processes

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“…Drought studies in Poland have been conducted at a regional and local level. Previously published drought analyses mainly refer to the classification of drought types using various drought indicators [41][42][43], monitoring of drought conditions [44][45][46][47], as well as the characteristics of the drought, including its duration, intensity, size and frequency [48].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Analysis of Long-Term Trends in the Meteorological and Hydrological Drought Occurrences Using Non-Parametric Methods—Case Study of the Catchment of the Upper Noteć River (Central Poland)

2021

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The study aims to identify long-term trends in the changes of drought occurrences using the Mann-Kendall (MK) test and the Theil-Sen estimator. Trend research was carried out on the example of the catchment area of the Upper Noteć River, which covers an agricultural area of Poland with some of the lowest water reserves. The meteorological droughts were identified based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), while the hydrological droughts were determined on the basis of the Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) in various time scales (1, 3, 6, 9 and 12 months) in the period of 1981–2016. The relationship between SPI and SRI was determined on the basis of the Pearson correlation analysis. The results showed that statistically significant trends (at the significance level of 0.05) were identified at 3 out of 8 meteorological stations (downward trend at Kłodawa station and upward trend for drought at Sompolno and Kołuda Wielka stations). Statistically significant hydrological droughts showed an increase in occurrences at the Łysek station, while a downward trend was noted at the Noć Kalina station. No trend was found at the Pakość station. The analysis of the correlation between meteorological and hydrological droughts showed a strong relationship in dry years. The maximum correlation coefficient was identified in longer accumulation periods i.e., 6 and 9 months. The example of the catchment of the Upper Noteć River points to the necessity of using several indicators in order to assess the actual condition of the water reserves.

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“…It must be said that for the instrumental period, and in particular for the period after World War II, the knowledge is good. Papers have been published analysing the following: (1) classification of drought types and the development of drought indices (Bąk and Łabędzki, 2002;Łabędzki, 2007;Łabędzki and Kanecka-Geszke, 2009;Tokarczyk, 2013;Łabędzki and Bąk, 2014); (2) tendencies in drought occurrence and intensity (Farat et al, 1998;Magier et al, 2000;Łabędzki, 2007;Kalbarczyk, 2010;Bartczak et al, 2014;Radzka, 2015;Wypych et al, 2015;Bąk and Kubiak-Wójcicka, 2017); (3) monitoring of drought conditions (Łabędzki, 2006;Doroszewski et al, 2008Doroszewski et al, , 2012Tokarczyk and Szalińska, 2013;IMGW, 2014;ITP, 2014;Łabędzki and Bąk, 2014); and (4) drought hazard assessment for periods when observations are available (Łabędzki, 2009;Tokarczyk and Szalińska, 2014). In recent years the influence of future climate change on the occurrence of droughts in Poland in the 21st century has also been addressed (Liszewska et al, 2012;Osuch et al, 2012Osuch et al, , 2016.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Droughts in the area of Poland in recent centuries in the light of multi-proxy data

et al. 2020

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Abstract. The history of drought occurrence in Poland in the last millennium is poorly known. To improve this knowledge we have conducted a comprehensive analysis using both proxy data (documentary and dendrochronological) and instrumental measurements of precipitation. The paper presents the main features of droughts in Poland in recent centuries, including their frequency of occurrence, coverage, duration, and intensity. The reconstructions of droughts based on all the mentioned sources of data covered the period 996–2015. Examples of megadroughts were also chosen using documentary evidence, and some of them were described. Various documentary sources have been used to identify droughts in the area of Poland in the period 1451–1800 and to estimate their intensity, spatial coverage, and duration. Twenty-two local chronologies of trees (pine, oak, and fir) from Poland were taken into account for detecting negative pointer years (exceptionally narrow rings). The delimitation of droughts based on instrumental data (eight long-term precipitation series) was conducted using two independent approaches (Standard Precipitation Index, SPI, calculated for 1-, 3-, and 24-month timescales, and a new method proposed by authors). For delimitation of droughts (dry months), the criteria used were those proposed by McKee et al. (1993) and modified for the climate conditions of Poland by Łabędzki (2007). More than 100 droughts were found in documentary sources in the period 1451–1800, including 17 megadroughts. A greater than average number of droughts were observed in the second halves of the 17th century and the 18th century in particular. Dendrochronological data confirmed this general tendency in the mentioned period. Analysis of SPI (including its lowest values, i.e. droughts) showed that the long-term frequency of droughts in Poland has been stable in the last two or three centuries. Extreme and severe droughts were most frequent in the coastal part of Poland and in Silesia. Most droughts had a duration of 2 months (about 60 %–70 %) or 3–4 months (10 %–20 %). Frequencies of droughts with a duration of 5-or-more months were lower than 10 %. The frequency of droughts of all categories in Poland in the instrumental period 1722–2015 was greatest in winter, while in the documentary evidence (1451–1800) droughts in this season are rarely mentioned. The occurrence of negative pointer years (a good proxy for droughts) was compared with droughts delimited based on documentary and instrumental data. A good correspondence was found between the timing of occurrence of droughts identified using all three kinds of data (sources).

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The Assessment of Atmospheric Drought During Vegetation Season (According to Standardized Precipitation Index Spi) in Central-Eastern Poland

Cited by 16 publications

References 4 publications

Simulating low flows over a heterogeneous landscape in southeastern Poland

Simulating low flows over a heterogeneous landscape in southeastern Poland

The Analysis of Long-Term Trends in the Meteorological and Hydrological Drought Occurrences Using Non-Parametric Methods—Case Study of the Catchment of the Upper Noteć River (Central Poland)

Droughts in the area of Poland in recent centuries in the light of multi-proxy data

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