The association between the incidence of mumps and meteorological parameters in Taiwan

Abstract

These authors equally contributed to this work. Keywords: infectious disease, meteorological parameters, modeling, mumps, weatherMumps is caused by a paramyxovirus. It is an acute, but mild infectious disease. However, approximately 10% of patients with mumps can develop severe meningoencephalitis, disability, and death. Seasonal patterns in mumps vary across countries, but the reasons for this phenomenon remain unclear. The aim of this study was to assess the role of meteorological factors on mumps infection. We investigated the relationships between weather variability and the incidence of mumps in Taiwan using a Poisson regression analysis and case-crossover methodology. Between 2006 and 2011, 6,612 cases of mumps were reported to the Centers for Disease Control, Taiwan (Taiwan CDC). The incidence of mumps showed a significant seasonality in summertime (for oscillation, P < 0.001). The number of mumps started to increase at temperatures of 20 C (r 2 D 0.73, P < 0.001), and the case count of mumps began to decline when the temperatures were higher than approximately 25 C (r 2 D 0.24, p D 0.04), producing an inverted V-shaped relationship. Similarly, the number of mumps began to increase at a vapor pressure of 5-9 hPa (r 2 D 0.87, P < 0.005) and decreased at a vapor pressure higher than 25-29 hPa (r 2 D 0.21, p D 0.05). The number of mumps cases was positively associated with temperature and vapor pressure in the preceding period of the infection. In conclusion, this study showed that the occurrence of mumps is significantly associated with increasing temperature and vapor pressure in Taiwan. Therefore, these factors could be regarded as warning signals indicating the need to implement preventive measures.

Meteorological factors and the incidence of mumps in Fujian Province, China, 2005–2013: Non-linear effects

“…Our results about the effects of temperature and relative humidity on mumps incidence are consistent with the results of a study in Guangzhou, China (Yang et al, 2014a), that the minimum level of temperature and maximum level of relative humidity could increase the risk of mumps. However, our result on temperature is different from the results of studies conducted in Taiwan and Jining, China (Ho et al, 2015;Li et al, 2016). They showed that the risk increased with temperature increasing.…”

“…At present, there are a number of ecological studies examining the relationships between meteorological factors and infectious diseases, such as hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) and dengue fever Li et al, 2017a;Nguyen et al, 2017), with only few focused on mumps and the results are inconsistent (Ho et al, 2015;Li et al, 2016;Onozuka and Hashizume, 2011;Yang et al, 2014a). This could be due to the different analytic methodologies and various geographic locations with different climatic characteristics.…”

Current Status of Mumps Virus Infection: Epidemiology, Pathogenesis, and Vaccine

“…In temperate climate, the occurrences of MuV infections are strong seasonality, with peaks in winter and spring [25,35]. A higher risk for mumps infections was observed during the summer months than during other seasons in Asia, and epidemics recur with a seasonal pattern [35][36][37]. A previous study showed that the occurrence of MuV infection increased as temperature and humidity increased [35].…”

“…A higher risk for mumps infections was observed during the summer months than during other seasons in Asia, and epidemics recur with a seasonal pattern [35][36][37]. A previous study showed that the occurrence of MuV infection increased as temperature and humidity increased [35]. The reasons of the seasonal pattern of mumps infection may be due to the following factors: the fluctuations of human immune competence mediated by seasonal factors, such as levels of melatonin [38]; seasonality-related behavioral factors, such as school attendance and indoor crowding [26]; and meteorological factors [36,37,39], including temperature, sunshine, wind, and relative humidity.…”

“…A variation in the peak season of mumps infections between different years has been reported in some studies. In temperate climate, the occurrences of MuV infections are strong seasonality, with peaks in winter and spring [25,35]. A higher risk for mumps infections was observed during the summer months than during other seasons in Asia, and epidemics recur with a seasonal pattern [35][36][37].…”