The association of extreme temperatures and the incidence of tuberculosis in Japan

Onozuka, Daisuke; Hagihara, Akihito

doi:10.1007/s00484-014-0924-3

Cited by 31 publications

(36 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…Hospital admissions in colder months are significantly higher than in warmer months [17,18], however the occurrence of extremely high temperatures during the summer has resulted in a significant increase in the number of tuberculosis cases [19]. Moreover, air pollution is a substantial cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide [20].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Environmental Factors Related to Pulmonary Tuberculosis in HIV-Infected Patients in the Combined Antiretroviral Therapy (cART) Era

et al. 2016

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The aim of our study was to evaluate the seasonal variations and whether short-term exposure to environmental risk factors, such as climate and air pollution, is associated with PTB-related hospital admissions in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients in Spain during the era of combined antiretroviral therapy (cART). A retrospective study was carried out using data from the Minimum Basic Data Set (MBDS) and the State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) of Spain. The primary outcome variable was hospital admissions with PTB diagnosis. The environmental risk factors evaluated were season, temperature, humidity, NO2, SO2, O3, PM10, and CO. Overall, HIV-infected patients had a lower frequency of PTB-related hospital admissions in summer (22.8%) and autumn (22.4%), but higher values in winter (26.6%) and spring (28.2%). Using a Bayesian temporal model, PTB-related hospital admissions were less frequent in summer-autumn and more abundant in winter-spring during the first years of follow-up. During the later years of follow-up, the seasonal trends continued resulting in the lowest values in autumn and the highest in spring. When considering short-term exposure to environmental risk factors, lower temperatures at 1 week (odds ratio (OR) = 1.03; p = 0.008), 1.5 weeks (OR = 1.03; p<0.001), 2 weeks (OR = 1.04; p<0.001), and 3 weeks (OR = 1.03; p<0.001) prior to PTB admission. In addition, higher concentration of NO2 at the time of admission were significantly associated with higher likelihoods of PTB-related hospital admission in HIV-infected patients when 1.5 weeks (OR = 1.1; p = 0.044) and 2 weeks (OR = 1.21; p<0.001) were used as controls. Finally, higher concentration of SO2 at 1.5 weeks prior to PTB admission was significantly associated with a higher likelihood of PTB-related hospital admissions (OR = 0.92; p = 0.029). In conclusion, our data suggest an apparent seasonal variation in hospital admissions of HIV-infected patients with a PTB diagnosis (summer/autumn vs. winter/spring), as well as a link to short-term exposure to environmental risk factors, such as temperature and ambient NO2 and SO2.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Environmental Factors Related to Pulmonary Tuberculosis in HIV-Infected Patients in the Combined Antiretroviral Therapy (cART) Era

et al. 2016

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“…Referring to the previous study (Onozuka andHagihara, 2015, Xiao et al, 2018) and GACV values, we set a maximum lag structure as 70 days (10 weeks) as it also is longer than the incubation period (4-8weeks). We used mean value of T mean (15.0℃) as the reference to calculate the relative risks (RRs), and used the minimum, the 5 th and 25 th of percentiles temperature as the cold temperature effect and the maximum, the 95 th and 75 th of percentiles as the hot effect.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effect of ambient temperature on incidence of tuberculosis and effect modification by meteorological factors in Jinan, China during 2012-2015: A time-series analysis

Ye¹,

L²,

Zhou³

et al. 2019

Preprint

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Objective For assessing the nonlinearity and delayed effect of temperature on incidence of tuberculosis and effect modification by meteorology factors, daily data on meteorological factors, air pollutants and incidence were obtained in Jinan, China, from 2012 to 2015.Methods A distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) combined with quasi-Poisson regression model was employed to assess the associations. We further built a series of weather-stratified models to assess the effect modification by meteorological factors.Results The correlation between tuberculosis cases and daily average temperature (Tmean) was negatively nonlinear with a delayed effect. At the current day (lag 0), the increase of Tmean decreased the risk of tuberculosis incidence; over lag 0-70 days, the decrease of low Tmean and the increase of the high Tmean both indicated the increased risk of TB. The cold temperature showed an immediate effect at the current day, with a harvesting effect in the following days. The effect modifications by relative humidity, wind speed and sunshine duration were observed. Conclusion The cold effect accelerates the onset of potentially infected people in the short term. It is necessary to consider effect modification by meteorological factors in assessing temperature effects on incidence of tuberculosis. Which might shed light on the strategy of tuberculosis prevention and control.

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“…Further, it has been shown that the risk of TB has a correlation with climate and extreme heat or cold temperatures. [14,15] Due to the diversity of temperature ranges and fluctuations, climate types, and economic environments in different regions, the relationships between temperature and TB in different regions should be studied and will provide important evidence also for other countries.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Moreover, a lot of studies in different regions put forward that other environmental factors can also exert an effect on TB incidence. For example, the areas with extra dry climate are high-risk regions of TB [14]; the decrease of SD lead to an increased risk of TB [16]; the TB incidence are positively associated with the WS [17,18]. The meteorological and environmental factors are some of the central variables affecting the airborne transmission of pathogens.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…[21][22][23] In South Korea, the exposure to high concentrations of suspended particles increased at 1.27 times the incidence of TB [24]. However, many studies [4,14] of ambient temperature and health outcome did not account for air pollutants, and in the previous review [25], it was not clear from the few studies conducted whether air pollutants acted as confounders, effect modifiers, or both. It is critical to control the effect of pollutants in models with ambient temperature, since they may often exert the influence on a daily basis [26].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Effect of ambient temperature on incidence of tuberculosis and effect modification by meteorological factors in Jinan, China during 2012-2015

Ye¹,

Cui²,

Zhou³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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ObjectiveFor assessing the nonlinearity and delayed effect of temperature on incidence of Tuberculosis (TB) and effect modification by meteorology factors, daily data on meteorological factors, air pollutants and incidence were obtained in Jinan, China, from 2012 to 2015.MethodsA distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) combined with quasi-Poisson regression model was employed to assess the nonlinearity and the delayed effect of associations. We further built a series of weather-stratified models categorizing the meteorology factors into two levels to assess the effect modification of the ambient temperature effect. ResultsThe correlation between tuberculosis (TB) cases and daily average temperature (Tmean) was nonlinear with a delayed effect. At the current day (lag 0), the increase of Tmean decreased the risk of TB incidence; over lag 0-70 days, the decrease of low Tmean and the increase of the high Tmean both indicated the increased risk of TB. The cold temperature showed an immediate effect at the current day, with a harvesting effect in the following days. There was no significant harvesting effect in hot effect. Meanwhile, the effect of hot temperature on TB appeared with an about two-week lag and was lower than cold effect. The effect modifications by relative humidity, wind speed and sunshine duration were observed.ConclusionResults indicate that there was a nonlinear correlation with a harvesting effect between temperature and TB in Jinan, and both cold effect and heat effect exist the delayed effect. Results also pointed to the importance of considering effect modification by meteorological factors in assessing temperature effects on incidence of TB. Which might shed light on the strategy of TB prevention and control.

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The association of extreme temperatures and the incidence of tuberculosis in Japan

Cited by 31 publications

References 31 publications

Environmental Factors Related to Pulmonary Tuberculosis in HIV-Infected Patients in the Combined Antiretroviral Therapy (cART) Era

Environmental Factors Related to Pulmonary Tuberculosis in HIV-Infected Patients in the Combined Antiretroviral Therapy (cART) Era

Effect of ambient temperature on incidence of tuberculosis and effect modification by meteorological factors in Jinan, China during 2012-2015: A time-series analysis

Effect of ambient temperature on incidence of tuberculosis and effect modification by meteorological factors in Jinan, China during 2012-2015

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