The asymmetric effects of exchange rate on trade balance and output growth

Mesagan, Ekundayo Peter; Alimi, Olorunfemi Yasiru

doi:10.1016/j.jeca.2022.e00272

Cited by 23 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…Our findings are also consistent with that of Wanguru (2019), who examined the effect of real exchange rates on fruit exportation in Kenya and discovered a negative relationship between the foreign exchange rate and horticultural export performance. While currency depreciation may temporarily reduce exports, it is expected to increase in the long run (Mesagan et al, 2022). Hence, the positive effect of a weakening currency on export performance observed in our long-run estimates is consistent with a priori expectations, although Dincer and Kandil (2009) assert that this relationship may lose some traction over time (at least in the case of Turkey).…”

Section: Phillips-ouliaris Cointegration Testsupporting

confidence: 86%

Effect of real exchange rates on fruit exports in South Africa: A Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach

Maphalle,

Oyekale

2023

J. Agribus. Rural Dev.

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The magnitude of a country's exports positions it for international competitiveness. This study examined the effect of real exchange rates (RER) on fruit exports in South Africa and determined the direction of causality between fruit exports and exchange rate changes. The dataset covered for the period 1971-2019. The variables were tested for stationarity and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) was used for data analysis. The results showed that the unit root and cointegration tests indicated that the data were integrated of order one [I(1)]. The long-run OLS regression revealed that a weakening exchange rate has a positive effect on both export values and quantities. The study discovered that government spending in the form of Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) has a small but positive effect on fruit exports, thereby boosting exports by allowing the fruits to be sold at affordable prices in foreign markets. Also, government spending in the form of GFCF had a small but positive effect on fruit exports. It was concluded that the real exchange rate influences fruit exports in South Africa, and that the government and other stakeholders should work to enhance transportation and related infrastructure through increased public investment for streamlining requisite logistics for boosting agricultural export performance.

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Section: Phillips-ouliaris Cointegration Testsupporting

confidence: 86%

Effect of real exchange rates on fruit exports in South Africa: A Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach

Maphalle,

Oyekale

2023

J. Agribus. Rural Dev.

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“…Indonesia's trade balance divided into the oil and gas import export trade balance and the nonoil and natural gas import export trade balance. Mesagan et al (2022), stated that the surge in oil and gas imports would cause a trade balance deficit, so that foreign exchange reserves would be depleted and weaken the rupiah exchange rate. The oil and gas trade balance in the last five years has been negative, which is due to higher oil and natural gas imports compared to exports.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Narrative Policy Analysis: Utilization of Dimethyl Ether as an LPG Mixed Fuel (Case Study in Indonesia)

Suraputra,

Nugroho

2024

JLS

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Dimethyl Ether (DME) utilization as an LPG fuel mix policy has become a polemic among several groups. The purpose of this research is to analyze the effectiveness of narrative constructed by Government, analyze the counter narrative, and formulate a strategy to strengthen the Government narrative regarding the use of DME as an LPG mixed fuel. This research uses the Narrative Policy Analysis (NPA) method. The counter narrative is compared with Government narrative to obtain a meta narrative. The level of analysis in this research is meso. The conclusions from this research are: 1) Indonesia Government continues to use DME as a mixed fuel for LPG; 2) The obstacles of policy narrative constructed by the Indonesia Government are differences viewpoints regarding the availability and use of coal as raw material for DME and differences in belief system regarding greenhouse gas emissions. The recommended strategy to strengthen the Government’s policy narrative are: 1) Comprehensive discussion by involving groups that oppose the narrative, 2) present the result of the feasibility study on greenhouse gas emmision resulting fro DME production process from coal which has been carried out by the Government by providing socialization regarding tax policy carbon as well as technical implementation of carbon economic value and controlling greenhouse gas emmision.

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“…Another misleading approach adopted by authors in the case of Africa is to select their samples based on the highest GDP, which is put as the largest economies in Africa and the refusal to recognise that the selected African countries do not operate a unified or uniform exchange rate system as well as the composition of their exports. Example of such studies includes [ 21 , 23 , 24 ]. The central research question of this study is to investigate the exchange rate-export trade nexus in oil-exporting African countries with varying exchange rate regimes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…[ 23 ] based their focus on the largest African economies and adopted the NARDL econometric technique to conduct their triangular analysis on the exchange rate, trade balance and output growth. Results show that currency appreciation and depreciation enhance trade and output in the short-run for South Africa and reduce trade and output in the short-run for Angola.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The mediating role of oil price in the export-exchange rate nexus for selected African economies: Evidence from MATNARDL model

Okere¹,

Muoneke²,

Ogbolu³

et al. 2023

Heliyon

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The asymmetric effects of exchange rate on trade balance and output growth

Cited by 23 publications

References 48 publications

Effect of real exchange rates on fruit exports in South Africa: A Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach

Effect of real exchange rates on fruit exports in South Africa: A Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach

Narrative Policy Analysis: Utilization of Dimethyl Ether as an LPG Mixed Fuel (Case Study in Indonesia)

The mediating role of oil price in the export-exchange rate nexus for selected African economies: Evidence from MATNARDL model

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