The Atmospheric Dynamics Related to Extreme Rainfall and Flood Events during September-October-November in South Sulawesi

Abstract

This study was conducted to analyse the occurrence of extreme rainfall and the dynamics of the atmosphere prior to the occurrence of extreme rainfall and flood events in South Sulawesi during September-October-November (South Sulawesi’s dry season). The data used is daily data for the period 2001-2020. Using 50 mm/day and the 90th percentile rainfall threshold of 119 rain stations distributed over 24 regencies, extreme rainfall events in each region were identified. Furthermore, after screening for extreme rainfall events followed by flood events, a composite analysis was carried out to obtain patterns of atmospheric conditions before the extreme rainfall events. The results of the study confirm that spatially, the highest extreme rainfall indices values dominate in the western and northern regions of South Sulawesi, both frequency and intensity indicators. Flood events in South Sulawesi during September-October-November 2001-2020 were recorded as 23 days, of which 19 days were the flood events after extreme rainfall events. The dynamics of the atmosphere before the extreme rainfall event followed by the flood event showed anomalies in precipitable water, 850 mb winds, and 200 mb winds. An increase in the amount of precipitable water and a wind speed of 850 mb, as well as a decrease in wind speed of 250 mb compared to normal in the South Sulawesi region and its surroundings, has resulted in an increase in the formation of rain clouds that have the potential to increase the chance of extreme rainfall.