The Burr XII Autoregressive Moving Average Model

Araújo, Fernando José Monteiro de; Guerra, Renata Rojas; Peña-Ramírez, Fernando A.

doi:10.3390/iocma2023-14403

Cited by 1 publication

(1 citation statement)

References 26 publications

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“…The authors of [7] proposed a dynamic regression model based on the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson distribution, and [8] presented a new generalized autoregressive moving average model based on the Bernoulli geometric distribution. Other recent contributions in this field include [9,10]. As a comprehensive reference for non-Gaussian dynamic regression, see [11].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Chen Autoregressive Moving Average Model for Modeling Asymmetric Positive Continuous Time Series

Stone,

Loose,

Melo

et al. 2023

Symmetry

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In this paper, we introduce a new dynamic model for time series based on the Chen distribution, which is useful for modeling asymmetric, positive, continuous, and time-dependent data. The proposed Chen autoregressive moving average (CHARMA) model combines the flexibility of the Chen distribution with the use of covariates and lagged terms to model the conditional median response. We introduce the CHARMA structure and discuss conditional maximum likelihood estimation, hypothesis testing inference along with the estimator asymptotic properties of the estimator, diagnostic analysis, and forecasting. In particular, we provide closed-form expressions for the conditional score vector and the conditional information matrix. We conduct a Monte Carlo experiment to evaluate the introduced theory in finite sample sizes. Finally, we illustrate the usefulness of the proposed model by exploring two empirical applications in a wind-speed and maximum-temperature time-series dataset.

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