The Calculation of the Earth’s Insolation for the Period 3000 BC–AD 2999

Fedorov, V. M.; Kostin, Andrey

doi:10.1007/978-3-030-38177-6_20

Cited by 13 publications

(4 citation statements)

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“…The perturbations of the Earth's orbit around the Sun by the Moon and by the other planets also need to be considered. For this reason, there is some overlap between much of the ongoing research into short-term orbital forcing [307,[470][471][472]472,473] and the calculations within the Sun-Planetary Interactions (SPI) theories described in Section 2.5.3. However, we stress that the two fields of research are distinct.…”

Section: Comparison With Long-term Orbital Forcingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…At any rate, regardless of the role the Milankovitch orbital cycles play in the glacial/interglacial transitions, we emphasize that the changes in the latitudinal and seasonal variability of the incoming TSI over these cycles are clearly climatically important. Indeed, while much of the research until now has focused on the gradual variations over millennial timescales or longer, e.g., Huybers & Denton (2008); Davis & Brewer (2009); Berger et al (2010), in recent years, some groups have begun emphasizing the significance of "short-term orbital forcing" (STOF) (Cionco & Soon 2017), i.e., secular drifts on multidecadal to centennial timescales in the average daily insolation at different latitudinal bands for different seasons (Cionco & Soon 2017;Fedorov 2019a;Szarka et al 2021;Cionco et al , 2020Fedorov 2019b;Fedorov & Kostin 2020).…”

Section: Thismentioning

confidence: 99%

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How much has the Sun influenced Northern Hemisphere temperature trends? An ongoing debate

Connolly¹,

Soon²,

Connolly³

et al. 2021

Res. Astron. Astrophys.

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In order to evaluate how much Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) has influenced Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature trends, it is important to have reliable estimates of both quantities. Sixteen different estimates of the changes in TSI since at least the 19th century were compiled from the literature. Half of these estimates are “low variability” and half are “high variability”. Meanwhile, five largely-independent methods for estimating Northern Hemisphere temperature trends were evaluated using: 1) only rural weather stations; 2) all available stations whether urban or rural (the standard approach); 3) only sea surface temperatures; 4) tree-ring widths as temperature proxies; 5) glacier length records as temperature proxies. The standard estimates which use urban as well as rural stations were somewhat anomalous as they implied a much greater warming in recent decades than the other estimates, suggesting that urbanization bias might still be a problem in current global temperature datasets – despite the conclusions of some earlier studies. Nonetheless, all five estimates confirm that it is currently warmer than the late 19th century, i.e., there has been some “global warming” since the 19th century. For each of the five estimates of Northern Hemisphere temperatures, the contribution from direct solar forcing for all sixteen estimates of TSI was evaluated using simple linear least-squares fitting. The role of human activity on recent warming was then calculated by fitting the residuals to the UN IPCC’s recommended “anthropogenic forcings” time series. For all five Northern Hemisphere temperature series, different TSI estimates suggest everything from no role for the Sun in recent decades (implying that recent global warming is mostly human-caused) to most of the recent global warming being due to changes in solar activity (that is, that recent global warming is mostly natural). It appears that previous studies (including the most recent IPCC reports) which had prematurely concluded the former, had done so because they failed to adequately consider all the relevant estimates of TSI and/or to satisfactorily address the uncertainties still associated with Northern Hemisphere temperature trend estimates. Therefore, several recommendations on how the scientific community can more satisfactorily resolve these issues are provided.

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Section: Comparison With Long-term Orbital Forcingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Thismentioning

confidence: 99%

How much has the Sun influenced Northern Hemisphere temperature trends? An ongoing debate

Connolly¹,

Soon²,

Connolly³

et al. 2021

Res. Astron. Astrophys.

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“…Характеристики облучения земной поверхности вычислялись многими исследователями [1][2][3][4]. Характеристики облучения плотной части атмосферы в рамках солярного климата Земли до сих пор не изучались.…”

Section: Doi: 1031725/0552-5829-2020-301-304unclassified

“…Вычисление r(t), γ(t) и λ(t) и последующее приближённое вычисление интегралов в формуле (1) проводилось так же, как в работе [4], на основании высокоточных астрономических эфемерид НАСА DE-406. Исходными данными для расчётов были склонение и эклиптическая долгота Солнца, расстояние от Земли до Солнца, разность хода равномерно текущего (СТ -…”

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The Peculiarities of Irradiation Specific Energy of Thin Layers of the Atmosphere

Fedorov¹,

Kostin²,

Frolov³

2020

Proceedings of the 24th All-Russia Conference on Solar and Solar-Terrestrial Physics

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The Earth's climate models are based on solar climate theory (data of solar energy coming to the Eath's surface and dense part of atmosphere, which are calculated with some simplifications). This theory needs today the atmosphere irradiation characteristics. The variant of them is presented. The atmosphere splits into thin layers (for example, 1 km for each layer). The middle of layer is the raised surface (RS) above the Earth's ellipsoid. The main thin layer irradiation characteristics are irradiation specific energies (IrSE) of RS and its latitudinal parts in tropical years and their parts. Using IrSE = IrE/S, where IrE is irradiation energy and S is surface area, the formulas for IrSE values calculation are written for arbitrary latitudinal zone of RS in any time interval. The special zones are RS, its Northern Half (NH) and Southern Half (SH). The seasonality for NH(SH) is the modulus of difference between half-year's IrSE values for NH(SH). The array of IrE values for series of RS and theirparts, with altitude from 0 to 60 km, in tropical years and their parts from 3000 BC to AD 2999 was formed based on NASA ephemerides DE406. Some results for mean values (MV) of IrSE are: 1) the year's IrSE(MV) of RS linearly increases with RS altitude (H) from 10.7298 GJ/m 2 (H = 0) to 10.9292 GJ/m 2 (H = 60 km), the growth is 1.86%; 2) half-year's IrSE(MV) of NH (SH) in the first half-year is equal to one of SH(NH) in the second half-year; 3) the month's IrSE(MV) of RS has maximums at solstices and minimums at equinoxes, the difference is 0.043% when H = 0 and 0.042% when H = 60 km; 4) the seasonality of NH(SH) linearly decreases from 2.75266 GJ/m 2 (H = 0) to 2.74935 GJ/m 2 (H = 60 km), the decrease is 0.12%.

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Incoming and Transit Annual Radiation of the Earth and the Surrounding Atmosphere

Fedorov

Frolov²,

Zalikhanov³

2023

Springer Geology

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The Calculation of the Earth’s Insolation for the Period 3000 BC–AD 2999

Cited by 13 publications

References 10 publications

How much has the Sun influenced Northern Hemisphere temperature trends? An ongoing debate

How much has the Sun influenced Northern Hemisphere temperature trends? An ongoing debate

The Peculiarities of Irradiation Specific Energy of Thin Layers of the Atmosphere

Incoming and Transit Annual Radiation of the Earth and the Surrounding Atmosphere

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