The Calculus of Concession

Abstract

In this research we outline and evaluate a theory of the "calculus of concession": when and why presidential primary candidates exit the race. Our explanation builds on prior studies of candidate attrition that traditionally emphasize money. However, we focus additional attention on the role of the press and its potential to influence a candidate's exit decision. Data from the 2000 Republican presidential nomination campaign are used to test a Weibull model of candidate exit. Our results suggest that money is a critical component. But our research also demonstrates that the influence of money on candidates' decisions depends on the candidate's competitive position in the race. The availability of financial resources is far more critical to a close runner-up than to a less established long shot. Conversely, news coverage is far more critical to the decisions of longshot candidates early in the campaign than it is to big-shot candidates later on.In this research, we outline and evaluate a theory of the "calculus of concession": when and why presidential primary candidates exit the race. Our explanation builds on prior studies of candidate attrition that traditionally emphasize money. However, we focus additional attention on the role of the press and its potential to influence a candidate's exit decision. Specifically, we incorporate the element of vary-

Clearing the Field: How do Presidential Primary Candidates Win Big on Super Tuesday?

“…First, candidates who receive a significant amount of 7 DOI: 10.15763/issn.2374-779X.2020.37.2.1-28 media attention tend to stay in the race longer (Fei Shen 2008). Second, media attention can help long-shot candidates stay in a primary when they lag the frontrunners in other resources (Haynes et al 2004;Haynes, Flowers, and Gurian 2002). Finally, media attention helps candidate performance in both Iowa and New Hampshire (Donovan and Hunsaker 2009).…”

Media and Presidential Nomination Campaigns: When Bad News Becomes Good News (or at least a little better)

“…Damore (1997) determined there were similar effects relating to the media's coverage and fundraising, but found that the impact was far greater for longshot candidates. Haynes et al (2004) determined that news coverage is far more critical to the winnowing decisions of longshots early in the campaign even if they have limited resources. Moreover, news coverage has more of an impact when the race is more dynamic.…”

Polls and Elections: Still Part of the Conversation: Iowa and New Hampshire's Say within the Invisible Primary

“…Nomination campaigns have become increasingly front‐loaded, compressed, and nationalized (Mayer and Busch 2004), making the preprimary campaign, or what is also termed the invisible primary or the exhibition season, a powerful force in the selection of party nominees for president. Indeed candidates for nomination often withdraw in this period, and party nominations are clinched within, what was until recently, mostly shorter and shorter time periods (Haynes et al. 2004; Norrander 2006).…”

“…nation campaigns have become increasingly front-loaded, compressed, and nationalized (Mayer and Busch 2004), making the preprimary campaign, or what is also termed the invisible primary or the exhibition season, a powerful force in the selection of party nominees for president. Indeed candidates for nomination often withdraw in this period, and party nominations are clinched within, what was until recently, mostly shorter and shorter time periods (Haynes et al 2004;Norrander 2006). Recent scholarship now emphasizes that a candidate's level of funding and national political support at the beginning of the primary season largely determine who wins the nomination Dowdle 2001, 2005;Cohen et al 2008;Mayer 1996Mayer , 2003Steger et al 2004;Steger 2007).…”