The California Phenology Project: Tracking Plant Responses to Climate Change

Haggerty, Brian P.; Matthews, Elizabeth R.; Gerst, Katharine L.; Evenden, Angela G.; Mazer, Susan J.

doi:10.3120/0024-9637-60.1.1

Cited by 19 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 1 publication

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“…The NPS Inventory and Monitoring Program, NPS Climate Change Response Program, NPS Research Learning Centers, and approximately 30 individual parks are already working with the USA National Phenology Network (USA‐NPN) to develop monitoring programs (e.g., Haggerty et al. , A. T. Seasons ) and protocols (Tierney et al. , Matthews et al.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change is advancing spring onset across the U.S. national park system

et al. 2016

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Abstract. Many U.S. national parks are already at the extreme warm end of their historical temperature distributions. With rapidly warming conditions, park resource management will be enhanced by information on seasonality of climate that supports adjustments in the timing of activities such as treating invasive species, operating visitor facilities, and scheduling climate-related events (e.g., flower festivals and fall leaf-viewing). Seasonal changes in vegetation, such as pollen, seed, and fruit production, are important drivers of ecological processes in parks, and phenology has thus been identified as a key indicator for park monitoring. Phenology is also one of the most proximate biological responses to climate change. Here, we use estimates of start of spring based on climatically modeled dates of first leaf and first bloom derived from indicator plant species to evaluate the recent timing of spring onset (past 10-30 yr) in each U.S. natural resource park relative to its historical range of variability across the past 112 yr . Of the 276 high latitude to subtropical parks examined, spring is advancing in approximately three-quarters of parks (76%), and 53% of parks are experiencing "extreme" early springs that exceed 95% of historical conditions. Our results demonstrate how changes in climate seasonality are important for understanding ecological responses to climate change, and further how spatial variability in effects of climate change necessitates different approaches to management. We discuss how our results inform climate change adaptation challenges and opportunities facing parks, with implications for other protected areas, by exploring consequences for resource management and planning.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change is advancing spring onset across the U.S. national park system

et al. 2016

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“…A study of bird migration has documented that birds wintering in the southern United States now arrive back in the Northeast an average of 13 days earlier than they did between 1900 and 1950, and birds wintering in South America arrive back in the Northeast an average of 4 days earlier (Janetos et al 2008). Phenological studies have shown that the increase in GSL caused by warmer air temperatures have caused many species of animals and plants to expand their geographic ranges poleward in latitude and upward in elevation over the past century (Haggerty and Mazer 2008). In an analysis of 866 peer-reviewed papers exploring the ecological consequences of climate change, nearly 60% of the 1598 species studied exhibited shifts in their distributions and/or phenologies over the 20-and 140-yr time frames (Parmesan and Yohe 2003).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For example, the pine beetle has expanded its range into regions previously too cold to support its survival because of increases in temperatures and growing seasons (Carroll et al 2003). These biological shifts in spatial and temporal range are being called the ''fingerprint of climate change'' (Haggerty and Mazer 2008). There are many aspects of the ecosystem the GSL can affect across the United States and the world.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of Climate Change on the Growing Season in the United States

2011

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Understanding the effects of climate change on the vegetative growing season is key to quantifying future hydrologic water budget conditions. The U.S. Geological Survey modeled changes in future growing season length at 14 basins across 11 states. Simulations for each basin were generated using five general circulation models with three emission scenarios as inputs to the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). PRMS is a deterministic, distributed-parameter, watershed model developed to simulate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, climate, and land use on watershed response. PRMS was modified to include a growing season calculation in this study. The growing season was examined for trends in the total length (annual), as well as changes in the timing of onset (spring) and the end (fall) of the growing season. The results showed an increase in the annual growing season length in all 14 basins, averaging 27-47 days for the three emission scenarios. The change in the spring and fall growing season onset and end varied across the 14 basins, with larger increases in the total length of the growing season occurring in the mountainous regions and smaller increases occurring in the Midwest, Northeast, and Southeast regions. The Clear Creek basin, 1 of the 14 basins in this study, was evaluated to examine the growing season length determined by emission scenario, as compared to a growing season length fixed baseline condition. The Clear Creek basin showed substantial variation in hydrologic responses, including streamflow, as a result of growing season length determined by emission scenario.

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“…Studies of phenology-the timing of life cycle events-have provided some of the strongest evidence that many organisms have been or will be affected by global changes in climate (Parmesan and Yohe, 2003;Menzel et al, 2006). Plants are sensitive to changes in climate, especially changes in temperature, and plant phenology has been monitored and tracked through time using a variety of approaches, including long-term in situ observations of living plants (Sparks and Carey, 1995;Chmielewski and Rötzer, 2001;Rutishauser et al, 2009), citizen science networks (Mayer, 2010;Haggerty et al, 2013), satellite imagery (Stöckli and Vidale, 2004;Studer et al, 2007;White et al, 2009), and herbarium specimens (Lavoie and Lachance, 2006;Panchen et al, 2012;Hufft et al, 2018).…”

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A new phenological metric for use in pheno‐climatic models: A case study using herbarium specimens of Streptanthus tortuosus

2019

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Premise Herbarium specimens have been used to detect climate‐induced shifts in flowering time by using the day of year of collection ( DOY ) as a proxy for first or peak flowering date. Variation among herbarium sheets in their phenological status, however, undermines the assumption that DOY accurately represents any particular phenophase. Ignoring this variation can reduce the explanatory power of pheno‐climatic models ( PCM s) designed to predict the effects of climate on flowering date. Methods Here we present a protocol for the phenological scoring of imaged herbarium specimens using an ImageJ plugin, and we introduce a quantitative metric of a specimen's phenological status, the phenological index ( PI ), which we use in PCM s to control for phenological variation among specimens of Streptanthus tortuosus (Brassicaceeae) when testing for the effects of climate on DOY . We demonstrate that including PI as an independent variable improves model fit. Results Including PI in PCM s increased the model R 2 relative to PCM s that excluded PI ; regression coefficients for climatic parameters, however, remained constant. Discussion Our protocol provides a simple, quantitative phenological metric for any observed plant. Including PI in PCM s increases R 2 and enables predictions of the DOY of any phenophase under any specified climatic conditions.

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The California Phenology Project: Tracking Plant Responses to Climate Change

Cited by 19 publications

References 1 publication

Climate change is advancing spring onset across the U.S. national park system

Climate change is advancing spring onset across the U.S. national park system

Impacts of Climate Change on the Growing Season in the United States

A new phenological metric for use in pheno‐climatic models: A case study using herbarium specimens of Streptanthus tortuosus

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