This paper surveys a recent body of research by Heckman (2001, 2003), ), Cunha, Heckman, and Navarro (2005a,b, 2006, Heckman and Navarro (2006) and Navarro (2004) that estimates and identifies the ex post distribution of returns to schooling and determines ex ante distributions of returns on which agents base their schooling choices. We discuss methods and evidence, and state a fundamental identification problem concerning the separation of preferences, market structures and agent information sets. For a variety of market structures and preference specifications, we estimate that over 50% of the ex post variance in returns to college are forecastable at the time agents make their schooling choices.JEL Code: C31