The Casualties of War: An Excess Mortality Estimate of Lives Lost in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict

Abstract

Who and how many died in the 2020 Karabakh War? With limited evidence provided by authorities, media outlets, and human rights organizations, still little is known about the death toll caused by the 44-day conflict in and around Nagorno-Karabakh. This paper provides a first assessment of the human cost of the war. Using age–sex vital registration data from Armenia, Azerbaijan, and the de facto Republic of Artsakh/Nagorno-Karabakh, we difference the 2020 observed mortality values from expected deaths based on trends in mortality between 2015 and 2019 to offer sensible estimates of excess mortality resulting from the conflict. We compare and contrast our findings with neighboring peaceful countries with similar mortality patterns and socio-cultural background and discuss them against the backdrop of the concurrent first wave of Covid-19. We estimate that the war led to almost 6,500 excess deaths among people aged 15–49. Nearly 2,800 excess losses occurred in Armenia, 3,400 in Azerbaijan, and 310 in de facto Artsakh. Deaths were highly concentrated among late adolescent and young adult males, suggesting that most excess mortality was directly related to combat. Beyond the human tragedy, for small countries like Armenia and Azerbaijan, such loss of young men represents a considerable long-term cost for future demographic, economic, and social development.

Effects of armed conflict on maternal and infant health: a mixed-methods study of Armenia and the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war

“…These findings imply enduring implications for future population, economic and social Open access dynamics. 24 The 2022 WHO Health Systems in Action Report on Armenia also reported that there was a peak in excess mortality that far exceeded the average of the WHO European Region between October and December 2020, attributable to the synergistic effects of war and pandemic. 25 The mechanisms that led to the synergistic negative effects seen are similar to those being observed in Ukraine during the current conflict.…”