The Catastrophe of the Niedów Dam—The Causes of the Dam’s Breach, Its Development, and Consequences

Kostecki, S.; Banasiak, Robert

doi:10.3390/w13223254

Cited by 9 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…In the present study, we applied the MIKE 21 two-dimensional hydrodynamic module. MIKE [53] is considered one of the most commonly used software tools for dam failure simulation [18,27,28,54], whereas the methodology developed by GRS [47], which was selected to evaluate the uncertainty of flood wave modeling results and sensitivity of hydrodynamic model parameters, is not mentioned as a usual tool in hydrological studies [55]. Initially, it was created for technical systems [47,56] and is currently considered one of the most used methods in the nuclear field [57].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As already mentioned, we could not find similar studies to compare our findings. The studies devoted to the modeling of conventional single dams' failures emphasize the significance of the correct estimation of outflow hydrograph, its volume, and peak flow, which depend on breach geometry, the development of the dam break, the height of the dam, the reservoir length, storage volume and other parameters [18,60,61]. Like in our study, in the case of dam series, the accurate prediction of the wave propagation in the downstream reservoirs is of critical importance [35].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Causes of dam failures include construction errors, dam aging, mismanagement, heavy rains, floods, Sustainability 2024, 16, 3528 2 of 17 earthquakes, landslides, glacier avalanches, terrorist attacks, etc. [16][17][18][19][20]. The International Commission on Large Dams [21] reports a general downward trend in the number of registered failures worldwide.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Uncertainty Estimation in the Modeling of a Flood Wave Caused by a Dam Failure in a Hydropower System with Pumped Hydro Energy Storage

Kriaučiūnienė,

Šarauskienė

2024

Sustainability

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Future global sustainability depends heavily on the development of renewable energy. The object of this study is a system of two plants (Kaunas hydropower plant (HP) and Kruonis pumped-storage hydropower plant) and upper and lower reservoirs. A possible dam failure accident in such an important system can endanger the population of Kaunas City. The methodology for estimating dam-failure-induced flood wave uncertainty included scenarios of the upper reservoir embankment failure hydrographs, modeling flood wave spreading (MIKE 21 hydrodynamic model), and estimating wave heights. The GRS methodology was selected to assess the uncertainty of flood wave modeling results and the sensitivity of hydrodynamic model parameters. The findings revealed that the discharge values of the Nemunas inflow and outflow through the HP outlets are the most important parameters determining the greatest height of the flood wave. Therefore, by correctly managing the amount of water in the upper reservoir, it would be possible to prevent the lower reservoir dam from breaking.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Uncertainty Estimation in the Modeling of a Flood Wave Caused by a Dam Failure in a Hydropower System with Pumped Hydro Energy Storage

Kriaučiūnienė,

Šarauskienė

2024

Sustainability

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“…As the overflow commenced, the flow began to spread across the river floodplain, with the depth of the river varying along its course, influenced by the outlet flow rate and the slope of the river in each location. In the literature, we found a similar method to take into account the initial river condition [28].…”

Section: Presence Of River Flow Downstream Of the Breakmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling and Validation of the Derna Dam Break Event

Annunziato,

Santini,

Proietti

et al. 2024

GeoHazards

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The catastrophic failure of two dams in Libya on 10 and 11 September 2023 resulted in the devastating flooding of the city of Derna, which is located downstream of the dams, causing more than 6000 fatalities and displacing thousands of residents. The failure was attributed to heavy rainfall from Storm Daniel, leading to the dams reaching full capacity and subsequently overflowing and failing. This paper presents an analysis of the dam break, including the modelling of flow discharge and the resulting flooding of Derna. For validation purposes, this study compares the modelled quantities with post-event satellite imagery from UNOSAT and Copernicus, local reports, and data collected from social media using AI detection. The findings provide valuable insights into the dynamics of the dam break and its initial parameters, as well as an assessment of the accuracy of the results. The analysis is performed using a rapid estimation technique developed by JRC to provide the international emergency community with a swift overview of the impact and damage assessment of potential or actual dam break events. The use of all available data shows a satisfactory comparison with the calculated quantities. The rapid modelling of dam break events and combined analysis of multiple data types are proven suitable for promptly assessing the expected dynamic of the event, as well as reconstructing the unknown initial conditions before the break. Incorporating sensitivity analyses provides an estimate of the uncertainties associated with the deduced values of the unknown parameters and their relative importance in the analysis.

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“…The flood wave would change its parameters (width, height, and discharge) because of the geometry of the area downstream of the dam. In order to perform the unsteady flow analysis with the failure scenario [48,49], six steps were followed: (a) the geometry model was created in HEC-RAS 5.0. 7 using RAS Mapper, (b) dam characteristics were entered in order to create the dam, (c) failure parameters were calculated, (d) roughness data were entered, (e) the influx data were defined, and (f) the computation time was calculated [43,50].…”

Section: Dam Break Scenariomentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling and Risk Analysis of Dam-Break Flooding in a Semi-Arid Montane Watershed: A Case Study of the Yabous Dam, Northeastern Algeria

Gaagai

Aouissi

Krauklis

et al. 2022

Water

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The risk related to embankment dam breaches needs to be evaluated in order to prepare emergency action plans. The physical and hydrodynamic parameters of the flood wave generated from the dam failure event correspond to various breach parameters, such as width, slope, and formation time. This study aimed to simulate the dam breach failure scenario of the Yabous dam (northeast Algeria) and analyze its influence on the related areas (urban and natural environments) downstream of the dam. The simulation was completed using the sensitivity analysis method to assess the impact of breach parameters and flooding on the dam break scenario. The flood wave propagation associated with the dam break was simulated using the one-dimensional HEC-RAS hydraulic model. This study applied a sensitivity analysis of three breach parameters (slope, width, and formation time) on five sites selected downstream of the embankment dam. The simulation showed that the maximum flow of the flood wave recorded at the level of the breach was 8768 m3/s, which gradually attenuated along the river course to reach 1972.7 m3/s at about 8.5 km downstream the dam. This study established the map of flood risk areas that illustrated zones threatened by the flooding wave triggered by the dam failure due to extreme rainfall events. The sensitivity analysis showed that flood wave flow, height, and width revealed positive and similar changes for the increases in adjustments (±25% and ±50%) of breach width and slope in the five sites. However, flood wave parameters of breach formation time showed significant trends that changed in the opposite direction compared to breach slope and width. Meanwhile, the adjustments (±25% and ±50%) of the flood hydrograph did not significantly influence the flood parameters downstream of the dam. In the present study, the HEC-RAS 1-D modeling demonstrated effectiveness in simulating the propagation of flood waves downstream of the dam in the event of dam failure and highlighted the impact of the breach parameters and the flood hydrographical pattern on flood wave parameters.

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The Catastrophe of the Niedów Dam—The Causes of the Dam’s Breach, Its Development, and Consequences

Cited by 9 publications

References 29 publications

Uncertainty Estimation in the Modeling of a Flood Wave Caused by a Dam Failure in a Hydropower System with Pumped Hydro Energy Storage

Uncertainty Estimation in the Modeling of a Flood Wave Caused by a Dam Failure in a Hydropower System with Pumped Hydro Energy Storage

Modelling and Validation of the Derna Dam Break Event

Modeling and Risk Analysis of Dam-Break Flooding in a Semi-Arid Montane Watershed: A Case Study of the Yabous Dam, Northeastern Algeria

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