The change of first‐flowering date over South Korea projected from downscaled IPCC AR5 simulation: peach and pear

Abstract

ABSTRACT:The variations in the first-flowering date (FFD) of peach (Prunus persica) and pear (Pyrus pyrifolia) under future climate change in South Korea are investigated using simulations obtained from five models of the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. For the study, daily temperature simulations with Historical (1986Historical ( -2005, and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) (2071-2090) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios are statistically downscaled to 50 peach and pear FFD (FFD peach and FFD pear , respectively) observation sites over South Korea. The number of days transformed to standard temperature (DTS) method is selected as the phenological model and applied to simulations for estimating FFD peach and FFD pear over South Korea, due to its superior performance on the target plants and region compared to the growing degree days (GDD) and chill days (CD) methods.

Assessment and prediction of the first‐flowering dates for the major fruit trees in Korea using a multi‐RCM ensemble

“…This reveals that the FFD of the three deciduous trees will be advanced by about half a month by the end of this century under RCP8.5 scenario. Our estimations for the change in cherry, peach and pear FFD are 3.3, 3.1 and 3.8 days greater than those suggested by Hur et al (2014) and Hur and Ahn (2015b), who applied the statistically downscaled data from five or six CMIP5 models to the DTS model over 2071-2090. This divergence can be mainly attributed to the difference in projected mean temperature increment.…”

“…Furthermore, the future FFD change estimated in the study is about 3 days earlier than the results of Hur et al () and Hur and Ahn (), who analysed five or six CMIP5 data sets on the basis of RCP4.5 and 8.5. That is because the temperature increment derived from HadGEM2‐AO in our study is about 1.5 °C higher than that from CMIP5 MME results.…”

“…The phenological model used is the number of days transformed to the standard temperature model, called the DTS model (Ono and Konno, ). The DTS model, organizing as a function of daily mean temperature, has good capability to represent FFD in the three tree species over South Korea (Hur et al , ; Hur and Ahn, , ). Indeed, DTS model received favourable evaluations from previous studies (e.g.…”

“…Indeed, DTS model received favourable evaluations from previous studies (e.g. Aono and Kazui, ; Hur and Ahn, ) by comparing with the growing degree days (GDD) and chill days (CD) methods. Therefore, FFDs are estimated using the DTS model as follows: where T ij , daily mean temperature on the i th day at the j th station; (daily DTS) ij , daily DTS accumulation on the i th day at the j th station; T s , standard temperature (271.4 K); R , universal gas constant (8.314 J K −1 mol −1 ); Ea , sensitivity of plants to temperature (KJmol −1 ); Ds , starting day of calculation (day of year, DOY).…”

“…Indeed, DTS model received favourable evaluations from previous studies (e.g. Aono and Kazui, 2008;Hur and Ahn, 2015b) by comparing with the growing degree days (GDD) and chill days (CD) methods. Therefore, FFDs are estimated using the DTS model as follows:…”