The changing epidemiology of interpersonal firearm violence during the COVID-19 pandemic in Philadelphia, PA

Afif, Iman N.; Gobaud, Ariana N.; Morrison, Christopher N.; Jacoby, Sara F.; Maher, Zoë; Dauer, Elizabeth; Kaufman, Elinore J.; Santora, Thomas A.; Anderson, Jeffrey H.; Pathak, Abhijit; Sjoholm, Lars O.; Goldberg, Amy J.; Beard, Jessica H.

doi:10.1016/j.ypmed.2022.107020

Cited by 21 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 57 publications

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“…While Black children were the most heavily victimized race/ethnicity prior to the onset of the pandemic, our study demonstrated a significant increase in firearm injuries amongst Black children during the pandemic relative to other race/ethnicities. This finding supports previous literature demonstrating increased pandemic-related firearm injuries amongst people of color [ 14 , 15 ]. We also discovered a significant increase in pediatric victims of firearm injuries having Medicaid or self-pay insurance status during the COVID-19 pandemic, similar to one previous study showing increased Medicaid patients amongst post-COVID pandemic pediatric trauma victims, despite a lack of significant change in firearm injury rates before and after the pandemic in this particular study [31] .…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

“…Our study brings to light multiple significant findings related to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on pediatric firearm injuries. Consistent with multiple previous studies [ 8 , [11] , [12] , [13] , [14] , [15] , [16] ], pediatric firearm injury rates were found to have significantly increased during the pandemic compared to the five preceding years. While most previous studies on the topic do not include information on the intent or circumstances surrounding the shootings [ 8 , 11 , 12 , 14 , 16 ], we found that the escalation in pediatric firearm injuries was driven by a significant increase in pediatric firearm assaults/homicides.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

“…The relative decrease in unintentional pediatric firearm injuries that we discovered during the pandemic contradicts this theory, though the risks for firearm injury they point out are likely still accurate and significant. Our finding that pediatric firearm assaults/homicides significantly increased is likely still related in part to increased gun purchasing [ 8 , 11 , 13 , [23] , [24] , [25] ] and decreased youth supervision [ 8 , 14 , 16 ] associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. However, other factors such as COVID-19-induced economic crisis and subsequently increased neighborhood violence/crime rates may have played a more significant role in elevating pediatric firearm assaults/homicides.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 91%

“…Several other studies are limited by lack of victim demographic information including victim ages [11] , sex and race/ethnicity [11] , [12] , [13] . Many do not include analysis of injury severity or hospital disposition [ 8 , [12] , [13] , [14] ]. Most studies are limited by timeframe, including only the first several months of the COVID-19 pandemic [ 8 , 11 , 13 , 15 , 16 ], lacking potential impacts of the extensive Delta and Omicron variant surges [17] .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Most studies are limited by timeframe, including only the first several months of the COVID-19 pandemic [ 8 , 11 , 13 , 15 , 16 ], lacking potential impacts of the extensive Delta and Omicron variant surges [17] . Furthermore, while all such studies discuss speculations regarding the underlying causes of increased firearm injuries during the COVID-19 pandemic, the majority do not include the intent or circumstances surrounding the shootings [ 8 , 11 , 12 , 14 , 16 ]. Finally, no previous studies to our knowledge have described potential correlations between pediatric firearm injuries and specific surges in COVID-19 variants or associated COVID-19 death rates.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 4 more Smart Citations

COVID-19 Pandemic Effects on the Epidemiology and Mortality of Pediatric Firearm Injuries; A Single Center Study

Bernardin

Clukies

et al. 2023

Journal of Pediatric Surgery

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 91%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

COVID-19 Pandemic Effects on the Epidemiology and Mortality of Pediatric Firearm Injuries; A Single Center Study

Bernardin

Clukies

et al. 2023

Journal of Pediatric Surgery

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Analysis of Daily Ambient Temperature and Firearm Violence in 100 US Cities

et al. 2022

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ImportanceFirearm violence is a leading public health crisis in the US. Understanding whether and how ambient temperature is associated with firearm violence may identify new avenues for prevention and intervention.ObjectiveTo estimate the overall and regional association between hotter temperatures and higher risk of firearm violence in the US.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsThis cross-sectional study used distributed lag nonlinear models, controlling for seasonality and long-term time trends by city and pooled results overall and by climate region. The most populous cities in the US with the highest number of assault-related firearm incidence (ie, shootings) from 2015 to 2020 were analyzed. Data analysis was performed from October 2021 to June 2022.ExposuresMaximum daily temperature by city.Main Outcomes and MeasuresThe primary outcome was the number of assault-related firearm shootings by city.ResultsA total of 116 511 shootings in 100 cities were included in this analysis. The pooled analysis estimated that 6.85% (95% CI, 6.09%-7.46%) of all shootings were attributable to days hotter than city-specific median temperatures. This equates to 7973 total shootings (95% CI, 7092-8688 total shootings) across the 100 cities over the 6-year study period, although the number of total persons injured or killed would be higher. Estimated risk of firearm incidents increased almost monotonically with higher temperatures, with a local peak at the 84th percentile of the temperature range corresponding to a relative risk of 1.17 (95% CI, 1.12-1.21) compared with the median temperature. However, even moderately hot temperatures were associated with higher risk of shootings. Although significant, there was low heterogeneity between cities (I2 = 11.7%; Cochran Q test, P = .02), indicating regional or climate-specific variation in the daily temperature and incident shootings relationship.Conclusions and RelevanceThese findings underscore the importance of heat adaptation strategies broadly throughout the year to reduce shootings, rather than focusing on only the hottest days.

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Assessing the Gun Violence Archive as an Epidemiologic Data Source for Community Firearm Violence in 4 US Cities

et al. 2023

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ImportanceFirearm injury is a major public health burden in the US, and yet there is no single, validated national data source to study community firearm violence, including firearm homicide and nonfatal shootings that result from interpersonal violence.ObjectiveTo assess the validity of the Gun Violence Archive as a source of data on events of community firearm violence and to examine the characteristics of individuals injured in shootings.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsThis cross-sectional observational study compared data on community firearm violence from the Gun Violence Archive with publicly available police department data, which were assumed to be the reference standard, between January 1, 2015, and December 31, 2020. Cities included in the study (Philadelphia, Pennsylvania; New York, New York; Chicago, Illinois; and Cincinnati, Ohio) had a population of greater than 300 000 people according to the 2020 US Census and had publicly available shooting data from the city police department. A large city was defined as having a population greater than or equal to 500 000 (ie, Philadelphia, New York City, and Chicago). Data analysis was performed in December 2022.Main Outcomes and MeasuresEvents of community firearm violence from the Gun Violence Archive were matched to police department shootings by date and location. The sensitivity and positive predictive value of the data were calculated (0.9-1.0, excellent; 0.8-0.9, good; 0.7-0.8, fair; 0.6-0.7, poor; and &lt;0.6, failed).ResultsA total of 26 679 and 32 588 shooting events were documented in the Gun Violence Archive and the police department databases, respectively, during the study period. The overall sensitivity of the Gun Violence Archive over the 6-year period was 81.1%, and the positive predictive value was 99.0%. The sensitivity steadily improved over time. Shootings involving multiple individuals and those involving women and children were less likely to be missing from the Gun Violence Archive, suggesting a systematic missingness.Conclusions and RelevanceThese findings support the use of the Gun Violence Archive in large cities for research requiring its unique advantages (ie, spatial resolution, timeliness, and geographic coverage), albeit with caution regarding a more granular examination of epidemiology given its apparent bias toward shootings involving multiple persons and those involving women and children.

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The changing epidemiology of interpersonal firearm violence during the COVID-19 pandemic in Philadelphia, PA

Cited by 21 publications

References 57 publications

COVID-19 Pandemic Effects on the Epidemiology and Mortality of Pediatric Firearm Injuries; A Single Center Study

COVID-19 Pandemic Effects on the Epidemiology and Mortality of Pediatric Firearm Injuries; A Single Center Study

Analysis of Daily Ambient Temperature and Firearm Violence in 100 US Cities

Assessing the Gun Violence Archive as an Epidemiologic Data Source for Community Firearm Violence in 4 US Cities

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