The changing religious composition of Nigeria: causes and implications of demographic divergence

Abstract

At nearly 170 million inhabitants, Nigeria is Africa's most populous country by twofold and fertility levels remain higher than most other sub-Saharan African nations. Throughout the last several decades, the fertility gap between Christians and Muslims has widened with significant political implications for a nascent democracy. Where the Demographic Health Survey (DHS) survey of 1990 revealed a non-significant difference of 0·3 children, this figure had increased to 2·3 children by 2013. As the total fertility rate (TFR) of Christians decreased significantly from 6·1 to 4·5 children per woman between 1990 and 2013, the TFR of Muslims increased from 6·4 to 6·8 children per woman. The timing of this divergence coincides with the formal institutionalization of Sharia law in 1999. We examine the role of religion on education, contraception and family behaviour. Finally, we touch upon the implications for population growth and the religious composition of Nigeria in the coming decades.

Knowledge, attitudes and behaviours on tobacco, alcohol and other drugs among Nigerian secondary school students: Differences by geopolitical zones

“…Moreover, far fewer Northern zone students stated that they would get into trouble with their parents if they smoked cigarettes, drank alcohol or used marijuana and other drugs than their Southern counterparts (data not shown). The Northern zones are the poorest in the country, are afflicted by unrest and conflict, and are influenced by Sharia law; and there is a well‐known educational gap between the North and the South . This circumstance influences general life and society and personal habits, and may result in poor school attendance, less information and lower parental monitoring, all factors that can explain our findings.…”

“…Moreover, the availability of alcohol and the influence of the media and advertisements have boosted alcohol consumption by adolescents in developing countries [44]. The lower prevalence of lifetime alcohol use in the Northern zones could be due to the higher proportion of the Muslim population and the influence of Sharia there [36,41]. Contradicting this explanation, however, is the greater prevalence of recent alcohol use and drunkenness episodes we recorded among adolescents from Northern zones (and from Lagos) than from the other zones.…”

Human fertility in relation to education, economy, religion, contraception, and family planning programs

“…Beside declarations from the Vatican and other religious leaders [30,31], possible reasons are belief in supernatural influence on things we desire, such as "good crops, protection, health and fertility" [33,101], and fatalistic views about fertility, such as children "are up to God" [46,89]. Human sociality and norms, history, type of religion and other conditions influence TFRreligion relationships [86,99,102]. Religiosity probably contributes to maintaining high TFR in Sub-Saharan Africa, Arab States and parts of Asia and Latin America, in part by suppressing factors that reduce TFR.…”

Women's Education in the Muslim World

“…Previous research has been limited in two respects. First, with the exception of a few regional and country‐level studies (Beyer ; Borooah and Iyer ; Glass and Jacobs ; Hajj and Panizza 2009; Manglos‐Weber ; Sherkat ; Stonawski, Potančokova, Cantele, and Skirbekk ), most cross‐national analyses rely on aggregate education data that are not differentiated by religion within countries (e.g., Feldmann ; Østby, Urdal, and Rudolfsen ). Although 73 percent of Muslims live in Muslim‐majority countries (Hackett et al.…”