The changing role of household projections: exploring policy conflict and ambiguity in planning for housing

Abstract

Household projections have been a critical tool in establishing top-down hierarchical frameworks through which planning systems impose new housing requirements on localities. This paper reassesses the role of household projections in the context of two recent factors. The first is the emergence of increasingly localised spatial governance arrangements that enhance the scope to challenge household projections data. The second is the gradual emergence of the economy from recession and its impact on interpretation of household projections data. A case study of planning for housing in Wales explores the ambiguities and conflicts that arise as a result of these changes.