The Characteristics, Influencing Factors, and Push-Pull Mechanism of Shrinking Counties: A Case Study of Shandong Province, China

Abstract

To analyze the characteristics, influencing factors, and microscopic mechanisms of county-level city shrinkage, this paper uses a quantitative push-pull model to explore the shrinking counties of Shandong Province between 2000 and 2018. The measurement method formulates three research objectives. First, the shrinking intensity and characteristics are analyzed according to statistics about the average annual rate of population growth, the primary production proportion, and public expenditure. Second, the influence factors are explored. Living standards, industrial development, social input, and public resource indicators are selected to quantitatively identify the push factors and pull factors and the correlated relationship of how the factors influence the population decline using ridge regression. Finally, the circular feedback mechanism and push-pull effect of multiple factors are explained. How do the factors affect each other and which is the decisive factor shaping county shrinkage? The push-pull mechanism is analyzed using dynamic relationship testing and the Granger causality test. The results show that the shrinkage of county-level cities faces common problems, including lack of resources, slowing down of the economy, and declining cityscape quality of life, which are the push factors for the population decline. There are differentiated characteristics of shrinkage. There has not yet been a full-scale recession in Shandong Province in terms of the degree of shrinkage. The towns with population loss accounted for only 15.4%, and the loss of population was less than 10% in ten years. In terms of impact mechanisms, county economic strength has a nonlinear correlation to population migration. Some counties tend to shrink in population and society. The degradation of the cultural environment, quality of life, and social welfare highlight social shrinkage signs in counties. A healthy living environment, equal public services, and a slowing down of relative deprivation have become essential pull factors for migration. County governments should shift from economic growth to people’s well-being, balancing government governance, economic growth, cultural development, environmental protection, and improving the livability level, as they are important directions for improving shrinking counties’ resilience.

Approaches to understanding migration: A multi-country analysis of the push and pull migration trend

“…It means immigrants do not consider environmental considerations when making decision to move to either country. The findings do not agree with the position expressed in Pan (2019) that one of the reasons for migration is to escape drought, nor with the views of Wang et al (2021), that healthy living was one of the lures of migrating abroad. The findings that land fertility and good atmosphere were part of the attractions were rejected by the findings by respondents in Thailand and Poland.…”

“…(Sricharoen, 2019) added that these relocations are fuelled by economic and labor market inequalities, which cause expatriates to migrate from lower-income nations to nations with higher wages. Wang et al (2021) adds that push factors such as dearth of resources, slow economic growth rate as push factors that encourage migration of expatriates, and the results agree with those expressed by the respondents in Thailand and Poland.…”

“…Nevertheless, the pull factors consisted of variety of issues from economic, social, quality of education, political and environmental. In a study of the internal people relocations in the counties of Shandong Province in China between 2000 and 2018, Wang et al (2021) analyzed the factors that influenced country level city shrinkage using the push-pull theory. They analyzed the push-pull mechanism using a dynamic correlation testing and the granger causality test.…”

Decoupling Analysis of Rural Population Change and Rural Electricity Consumption Change in China

“…The cumulative reduction of the two rural permanent population account for 25.32% of the total reduction of the national rural permanent population. Urbanization and the pursuit of better living conditions were traditional reasons for rural population decline in Shandong and Sichuan provinces [ 51 , 52 ]. Out-of-home employment was the main reason for the decrease in the rural permanent population [ 53 ].…”

Mediating Role of Risk Perception and Environmental Quality on the Relationship Between Risk Knowledge and Traveler’s Intention in COVID-19

“…As stated by Wang et al (2021), risk perception is the starting point to judge the crisis impact on the tourism sector. The preference and behavior of people become influenced by the perceived risk of pandemic spread in the wake of a public health emergency.…”