The ‘China shock,’ exports and U.S. employment: A global input–output analysis

Feenstra, Robert C.; Sasahara, Akira

doi:10.1111/roie.12370

Cited by 126 publications

(74 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…In this section we highlight our methodology to measure the extent to which emerging economies employment is dependent on export as well as import. We follow the extended approach by Los et al (2015), and Feenstra & Sasahara (2018), which an extension of a standard input-output decomposition technique from Leontief (1936Leontief ( , 1941) toward a multi-country setting. First, this article will describe the general form of global input-output framework that already available at WIOD database and the accounting framework how to calculate the employment effect from export and import afterward.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…On further modeling strategy, except for the export section, we follow the approach and methodology developed by Feenstra & Sasahara (2018) that seek evidence for the USA on China shocks. While in the export section, We employ methodology as Los et al (2015) that focus on the positive impact of exports from the demand side.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In import, simply use the above method and change Chinese exports to the country of interest with the data from 1995 to analyze China shock may lead to the wrong conclusion because only by doing this as the case in USA, the USA imports from China have a positive employment effect. This result may occur as it neglected the fact that import penetration at the same time will affect domestic production (Feenstra & Sasahara, 2018). Thus we have to modify the method either by using assumption in how domestic production reacts to China product or utilizing estimation result.…”

Section: Employment In Importmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the market regression part, we differ from the approach utilized by Feenstra and Sasahara (2018) with the OLS and IV regression approach. For the former (OLS), the econometric issues may arise in the fact that first, the dependent (domestic share) and explanatory variable (China share) incorporate total demand, and the involving of measurement error.…”

Section: (12)mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This paper will be divided into several sections. In section 2, we briefly outline the world input-output methodology which forms the core part of the modeling strategy of the employment effects of exports and imports.This method is introduced by Johnson & Noguera (2012) and extended by many researcher included Los et al (2015), and Feenstra & Sasahara (2018). In Section 3, we depict the employment effect of exports, leaving the one for imports to Section 4.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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China Shocks and Their Employment Effects in Emerging Economies

Suprayogi

Harchaoui

2020

Signifikan

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The impact of “China shocks” on trading partners is a source of a massive supply shock that displaces foreign manufacturing producers, and an important source of demand shock that propelled forward a wide range of foreign sectors. The “common” existing literature mainly focused on the supply shock and its impact, leaving a large span of “China shocks” unexplained. Thus, this article undertake the important task to account for the dual track of “China shocks” and their impacts on a set of emerging economies, for which the evidence remains scanty. Using a global input-output methodology which highlights the job creation from exports and the job destruction aspect of imports, we provide evidence on the employment effect of bilateral trade with China. Our results suggest that considering the net effect of supply and demand related to China shocks mainly lead to negative job demand, and press the ringing bell for the government.JEL Classification: F1, F16, F66How to Cite:Suprayogi, B., & Harchaoui, T. M. (2020). China Shocks and Their Employment Effects in Emerging Economies. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, Vol. 9(1), 31-50. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v9i1.13550.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Employment In Importmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: (12)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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China Shocks and Their Employment Effects in Emerging Economies

Suprayogi

Harchaoui

2020

Signifikan

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Do words hurt more than actions? The impact of trade tensions on financial markets

Minesso

Kurcz

Pagliari

2022

J of Applied Econometrics

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In this paper, we apply textual analysis and machine learning algorithms to construct an index capturing trade tensions between US and China. Our indicator matches well-known events in the US-China trade dispute and is exogenous to the developments on global financial markets. By means of local projection methods, we show that US markets are largely unaffected by rising trade tensions, with the exception of those firms that are more exposed to China, while the same shock negatively affects stock market indices in EMEs and China. Higher trade tensions also entail: i) an appreciation of the US dollar; ii) a depreciation of EMEs currencies; iii) muted changes in safe haven currencies; iv) portfolio re-balancing between stocks and bonds in the EMEs. We also show that trade tensions account for around 15% of the variance of Chinese stocks while their contribution is muted for US markets. These findings suggest that the US-China trade tensions are interpreted as a negative demand shock for the Chinese economy rather than as a global risk shock.

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Effect of financial sector development and FDI inflow on employment rate in South Asia: New empirical evidence from ARDL approach

Farooq,

Tabash,

Al‐Faryan

et al. 2024

Journal of Public Affairs

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The current analysis aims to explore the empirical nexus between financial development, foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow, and employment rate. To attain this aim, we collect 30 years of annual data over the period 1990 to 2019 from South Asian economies and employ the autoregressive dynamic least square (ARDL) model for regression analysis. The implication of the ARDL model was subject to the mixed stationarity status of the series as assessed by unit root testing. The robustness of the analysis was checked by employing the fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) and dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) models. The statistical analysis infers that both financial development and FDI inflow enhance the employment rate in the South Asia region. In addition, the empirical analysis infers that the gross capital formation, economic growth, and export volume have a positive while the population growth rate has a negative effect on the employment rate. The impact of underlying explanatory variables was found significant only in long run. The estimated coefficient values in the case of FMOLS and DOLS models support the direction of the relationship between explanatory variables and employment rate, implying the robustness of the analysis. The findings of the current analysis can be used to devise efficient economic policies to cope with the encroaching issue of unemployment in the South Asia region. This study offers the robustness to existing literature and complements the literature by exploring the underlying arrangement of study to the whole South Asia group.

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The ‘China shock,’ exports and U.S. employment: A global input–output analysis

Abstract: This paper quantifies the impact on U.

Cited by 126 publications

References 34 publications

China Shocks and Their Employment Effects in Emerging Economies

China Shocks and Their Employment Effects in Emerging Economies

Do words hurt more than actions? The impact of trade tensions on financial markets

Effect of financial sector development and FDI inflow on employment rate in South Asia: New empirical evidence from ARDL approach

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