During operation, building materials and structures in buildings and structures are exposed to a whole range of adverse effects, leading to the loss of their performance characteristics.It is shown that at present there is a possibility to predict the durability of building materials and structures already at the stage of their design without carrying out additional inspections during operation. This prediction is based on the concept thermal fl uctuations destruction and deformation of the solid body. Experimental studies are presented to determine the effect of temperature and stress on the value of durability for polyvinyl chloride plates during cross bending, on the basis of which the thermal fl uctuation constants of the generalized Zhurkov equation are found by three different methods. A comparative analysis of them is made and a method for their determination is proposed, which makes it possible to increase the accuracy of the durability prediction.