The choice of scenarios

Gershuny, J.

doi:10.1016/0016-3287(76)90076-8

Cited by 17 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 1 publication

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“…We introduced the concept of scenario ξ during the modeling, which illustrates the future possible conditions [45]. Since the distinct characteristics of incidents cause different demands for resources and travel time, it is necessary to discuss emergency response schemes according to the specific emergency type.…”

Section: Notations Of Parameters and Variablesmentioning

confidence: 99%

A multi-stage emergency supplies pre-allocation approach for freeway black spots: A Chinese case study

et al. 2020

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This study presents a multi-stage random regret minimization (RRM) model as an emergency rescue decision support system to determine the emergency resource pre-allocation schedule for the freeway network. The proposed methodology consists of three steps: (1) improved accident frequency approach to identify the black spots on the freeway network, (2) stochastic programming (SP) model to determine the initial allocation plan sets, and (3) regret-based model in the logarithmical specification to select the most minimal regret one considering the factors of the response time, total cost and demand. The model is applied to the case study of 2014-2016 freeway network in Shandong, China. The results show that the random regret minimization (RRM) model can improve the full-compensation of SP model to a certain degree. RRM in logarithmical specification performs lightly better than random utility maximization (RUM) and RRM in the linear-additive specification in this case. This approach emerges as a valuable tool to help decision makers to allocate resources before traffic accident occurs, with the aim of minimizing the total regret of their decisions.

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Section: Notations Of Parameters and Variablesmentioning

confidence: 99%

A multi-stage emergency supplies pre-allocation approach for freeway black spots: A Chinese case study

et al. 2020

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“…As it helps to describe the uncertainty and complexity, the scene planning technology is more and more widely used [23 -26]. Gershuny [27] thought that the scenarios were general descriptions of future conditions and events. Scenarios can help organizations to prepare for the future events.…”

Section: Related Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

A scenario construction and similarity measurement method for navy combat search and rescue

Zhao

Ding

Guo

et al. 2020

J. of Syst. Eng. Electron.

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Navy combat search and rescue (NCSAR) is an important component of the modern maritime warfare and the scenario of NCSAR is the basis for decision makers to rely on. According to the core elements in the NCSAR process, the NCSAR scenario structure is constructed from seven perspectives based on the multi-view architecture framework. According to the NCSAR scenarios evolution over time, the NCSAR scenario sequence is analyzed and modeled based on the concept lattice method. Then, the incremental construction algorithm of the NCSAR scenario sequence lattice is given. On this basis, the similarity measurement index of NCSAR scenarios is defined, and the similarity measurement model of NCSAR scenarios is proposed. Finally, the rationality of the method is verified by an example analysis. The NCSAR scenario and similarity measurement method proposed can provide scientific guidance for rapid making, dynamic adjustment and implementation of the NCSAR program, and thus improve the efficiency and effectiveness of NCSAR.

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“…The word scenario first refers to a description of a set of facts or states that can move a state of affairs from an initial state to a future state [ 7 ]. Different scholars have different opinions and descriptions [ 8 , 9 ]. Scenario construction can help decision-makers find the set of events and elements that cause the target scenario system to move from the current state to future development and, thus, provide contingency plans to hinder an undesirable evolution.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Scenario Construction and Evolution Method of Casualties in Liquid Ammonia Leakage Based on Bayesian Network

Zhao

Wang

et al. 2022

IJERPH

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In China, food-freezing plants that use liquid ammonia, which were established in the suburbs in the 1970s, are being surrounded by urban built-up areas as urbanization progresses. These plants lead to extremely serious casualties in the event of a liquid ammonia leakage. The purpose of this thesis was to explore the key factors of personnel protection failure through the scenario evolution analysis of liquid ammonia leakage. The chain of emergencies and their secondary events were used to portray the evolutionary process of a full scenario of casualties caused by liquid ammonia leakage from three dimensions: disaster, disaster-bearing bodies, and emergency management. A Bayesian network model of liquid ammonia leakage casualties based on the scenario chain was constructed, and key nodes in the network were derived by examining the sensitivity of risk factors. Then, this model was applied to a food-freezing plant in Beijing. The results showed that inadequate risk identification capability is a key node in accident prevention; the level of emergency preparedness is closely related to the degree of casualties; the emergency disposal by collaborative onsite and offsite is the key to avoiding mass casualties. A basis for emergency response to the integration of personnel protection is provided.

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The choice of scenarios

Cited by 17 publications

References 1 publication

A multi-stage emergency supplies pre-allocation approach for freeway black spots: A Chinese case study

A multi-stage emergency supplies pre-allocation approach for freeway black spots: A Chinese case study

A scenario construction and similarity measurement method for navy combat search and rescue

The Scenario Construction and Evolution Method of Casualties in Liquid Ammonia Leakage Based on Bayesian Network

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