The climate of the Mediterranean region: research progress and climate change impacts

Lionello, Piero; Abrantes, Fatima F; Gačić, Miroslav; Planton, Serge; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Ulbrich, Uwe

doi:10.1007/s10113-014-0666-0

Cited by 143 publications

(78 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…The effects of climate change, including ocean acidification, are specially marked in the Mediterranean Sea, as it is considered a climate change hotspot, being especially vulnerable to the increased sea surface temperature (SST) caused by greenhouse gas emissions (Diffenbaugh and Giorgi 2012;IPCC 2013;Lionello et al 2014). …”

Section: Climate Change and Severe Weathermentioning

confidence: 99%

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Overview of the conservation status of Mediterranean anthozoa

Bo¹,

Numa²,

Otero³

et al. 2017

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Section: Climate Change and Severe Weathermentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The mean maximum summer seawater temperature of the Mediterranean Sea has risen by around 1 °C over the last three decades and there has been an increase in the frequency and intensity of marine heat waves (references within Lionello et al 2014). …”

Section: Climate Change and Severe Weathermentioning

confidence: 99%

Overview of the conservation status of Mediterranean anthozoa

Bo¹,

Numa²,

Otero³

et al. 2017

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“…4B). Most of the currently known yew localities have a relict character due in part to contraction of the species' range resulting mainly from climate aridification (Lionello, 2012;Lionello et al, 2014), which restricted the area with suitable site conditions for the species. The reduction of the population of T. baccata during the last 4-5,000 years has also been due to human pressure, firstly as a result of elimination of the forests when humans colonized the North African area (Lamb et al, 1991;Charco, 2007), afterwards during more recent times resulting from yew wood being used for carpentry and furniture making (Charco, 2007), the medicinal utilization of various parts of the plants (Bellakhdar, 1997;Bnouham et al, 2006;Benkhnigue et al, 2014), cutting trees to protect livestock against intoxication (Bnouham et al, 2006) and intensive browsing by goats, which can totally eliminate yew seedlings (Benabid, 1983b;Charco, 2007;Farris & Filigheddu, 2008).…”

Section: Number Of Taxus Baccata Individuals In Health Classesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Taxus baccata in Morocco: a tree in regression in its southern extreme

Romo¹,

Iszkuło²,

Taleb³

et al. 2017

Dendrobiology

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Abstract:The knowledge on chorology of species is basic for biogeographic and ecological studies and for conservation actions. The data on the chorology of Taxus baccata in Morocco have not been studied. The bibliographic resources, herbarium material, unpublished data of several botanists and the authors' field notes have been reviewed. Two yew populations on Jbel Lakrâa in the Rif and near Bekrit in the Middle Atlas were measured to verify demographic structure and health conditions. The Maxent model of predicted habitat based on bioclimatic variables was used to evaluate the potential geographic range of T. baccata. The species occurs in the mountain areas of northern Morocco: in the Rif, the Middle and High Atlas, at altitudes between (500) 1200 and 2000 (2350) m. In the High Atlas, it reaches its southernmost locations within the geographic range. The populations represented by the highest number of individuals are found in the Western Rif and Middle Atlas, while from the High Atlas only single, isolated individuals are known. The yew occurred preferably in forests of Cedrus atlantica, Abies maroccana, groves of Betula fontqueri, Ilex aquifolium and Prunus lusitanica and in riparian forests located in narrow gorges. Seedlings were observed only at single localities. The population of T. baccata in the Rif presented a good health condition with successful regeneration, while the population in the Middle Atlas was in a much worse state, where only 4-8 m high yews were observed, without natural regeneration. The Maxent model of predicted habitat, based on bioclimatic variables, suggests that T. baccata could occur today in much broader mountainous areas in Morocco, especially in the Rif and Middle Atlas. However, the progressive decline of this species in Morocco indicates the significant importance of other factors on yew distribution, including microsite conditions and human pressure. Taxus baccata in Morocco is in regression at most of its localities and should be treated as a vulnerable species. Measures to ensure the yew's conservation are needed, especially at its southernmost localities in the High Atlas.

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“…Evidence shows that in the last century the Mediterranean basin, acknowledged as very sensitive to climate variation (Lionello et al, 2006;IPCC, 2014), experienced relevant increases in temperature combined with noteworthy reductions in precipitation, and, according to future scenarios, this tendency is expected to even worsen in the next decades (Bravo et al, 2008;Giorgi and Lionello, 2008;Hertig et al, 2010;Lionello et al, 2014). This trend will likely impact many plant ecosystems, especially those located in mountain areas where climate is one of the major drivers of their distribution.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pastoral suitability driven by future climate change along the Apennines

et al. 2015

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This work aims at evaluating the impacts of climate change on pastoral resources located along the Apennines chain. To this end, random forest machine learning model was first calibrated for the present period and then applied to future conditions, as projected by HadCM3 general circulation model, in order to simulate possible spatial variation/shift of pastoral areas in two time slices (centred on 2050 and 2080) under A2 and B2 SRES scenarios. Pre-existent spatial database, namely Corine land cover map and WorldClim, were integrated and harmonised in a GIS environment in order to extract climate variables (mean seasonal precipitation, mean maximum temperature of the warmest month and minimum temperature of the coldest month) and response variables (presence/absence of pastures) to be used as model predictors. Random forest model resulted robust and coherent to simulate pastureland suitability under current climatology (classification accuracy error=19%). Accordingly, results indicated that increases in temperatures coupled with decreases in precipitation, as simulated by HadCM3 in the future, would have impacts of great concern on potential pasture distribution. In the specific, an overall decline of pasturelands suitability is predicted by the middle of the century in both A2 (-46%) and B2 (-41%) along the entire chain. However, despite alarming reductions in pastures suitability along the northern (-69% and -71% under A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively) and central Apennines (-90% under both scenarios) by the end of the century, expansions are predicted along the southern areas of the chain (+96% and +105% under A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively). This may be probably due to expansions in pastures dominated by xeric and thermophiles species, which will likely benefit from warmer and drier future conditions predicted in the southern zone of the chain by the HadCM3. Hence, the expected climate, coupled with an increasing abandonment of the traditional grazing practices, will likely threat grassland biodiversity as well as pastoral potential distribution currently dominating the Apennines chain.

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The climate of the Mediterranean region: research progress and climate change impacts

Cited by 143 publications

References 38 publications

Overview of the conservation status of Mediterranean anthozoa

Overview of the conservation status of Mediterranean anthozoa

Taxus baccata in Morocco: a tree in regression in its southern extreme

Pastoral suitability driven by future climate change along the Apennines

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