The climate-population nexus in the East African Horn: Emerging degradation trends in rangeland and pastoral livelihood zones

Pricope, Narcisa G.; Husak, G. J.; López‐Carr, David; Funk, Christopher C.; Michaelsen, Joel

doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.10.002

Cited by 124 publications

(105 citation statements)

References 81 publications

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“…In Mali, near the border with Burkina Faso, for example, a significant population increase by 35-45% over the last decade has resulted in a reduction of herbaceous and shrub vegetation being replaced by bare soil . Similarly, the highly populated areas along the Okavango Delta in northern Botswana and along the Niger River in western Mali as well as areas close to the big cities experienced non-climatic degradation, which were also confirmed by other studies (Pricope et al, 2013;Harris et al, 2014). Long-term studies by Mougin et al (2009) confirmed a decrease in natural vegetation and an increase in agricultural areas in Mali.…”

Section: A Conceptual Model -Link With Previous Studiessupporting

confidence: 76%

“…By contrast, several locations in the central Sahel region (southern Niger and southeastern Chad) experienced a decreasing trend in vegetation greenness. Pricope et al (2013) found a consistently declining NDVI over the period 1999-2011 in northern and eastern Ethiopia, along the Somali coast and in central Kenya, where this pattern extended into central Tanzania. A similar pattern of vegetation deterioration was identified in the East African Horn by our study and by de Jong et al (2012).…”

Section: Vegetation Patternsmentioning

confidence: 85%

“…Regions where decreasing rainfall was associated with declining vegetation greenness are assumed to show climatic degradation. Small pockets of climatic degradation were located in northern Kenya, where Pricope et al (2013) identified statistically significant long-term decline in mean growing season, which may indicate general degradation of vegetation. Around 21% of climatic degradation identified in our studies occurred in mosaics of cropland, grassland and natural vegetation.…”

Section: A Conceptual Model -Link With Previous Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This region has experienced several severe droughts over the last decades affecting the vegetation condition (Ngaka, 2012). The locations with statistically significant NDVI reduction are likely to have experienced less favourable growing conditions or disturbances like herbivory, grazing, land use change or human disturbance (Pricope et al, 2013;Vrieling et al, 2013).…”

Section: Vegetation Patternsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Our study shows that the largest area of non-climatic degradation was identified in Ethiopia and overall in the Horn of Africa. The Horn of Africa was recognized as one of the most food insecure regions with increasing population since the early 1990s (Pricope et al, 2013).…”

Section: A Conceptual Model -Link With Previous Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 4 more Smart Citations

A conceptual model for assessing rainfall and vegetation trends in sub‐Saharan Africa from satellite data

Hościło

Balzter

Bartholomé³

et al. 2014

Int. J. Climatol

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Policymakers, governments and aid agencies require operational environmental monitoring in support of evidence-based policy-making and resource deployment in crisis situations. For Africa, this is only feasible at sub-continental scale with a large network of automated meteorological stations, a large number of highly coordinated field observers or with satellite remote sensing. The challenge with satellite data lies in the derivation of meaningful environmental indicators. This article describes a conceptual framework for understanding satellite-derived indicators of rainfall and vegetation greenness trends over Africa. It attributes observed vegetation changes to climatic (i.e. rainfall linked) and non-climatic drivers. A decade of annual rainfall and vegetation data over sub-Saharan Africa was analysed using satellite-based rainfall estimates [Famine Early Warning System Rainfall Estimation 2.0 (FEWSNET RFE 2.0)] from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) Climate Prediction Centre and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) obtained from the Satellite Pour l'Observation de la Terre Vegetation (SPOT-VGT) sensor. Rainfall and vegetation greenness trends were analysed for 759 administrative regions of sub-Saharan Africa to identify those regions that have experienced a negative, positive or stable rainfall/vegetation trend over the period [2001][2002][2003][2004][2005][2006][2007][2008][2009][2010]. The character of the relationship between the annual rainfall and max NDVI trends were examined to identify areas where the changes in greenness could be attributed to climatic (rainfall) and non-climatic (human land use or ecological disturbance) changes. Regions where increasing rainfall was associated with vegetation greening were found in West Africa, Central African Republic, West Cameroon and northeastern part of South Africa, whereas areas with evidence of 'climatic vegetation degradation' were located in Southern Madagascar, Nigeria, Kenya and the Garden Route region of South Africa.

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Section: A Conceptual Model -Link With Previous Studiessupporting

confidence: 76%

Section: Vegetation Patternsmentioning

confidence: 85%

Section: A Conceptual Model -Link With Previous Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Vegetation Patternsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: A Conceptual Model -Link With Previous Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

A conceptual model for assessing rainfall and vegetation trends in sub‐Saharan Africa from satellite data

Hościło

Balzter

Bartholomé³

et al. 2014

Int. J. Climatol

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Sub‐seasonal teleconnections between convection over the Indian Ocean, the East African long rains and tropical Pacific surface temperatures

Vigaud

Lyon

Giannini

2016

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Since 1999, the increased frequency of dry conditions over East Africa, particularly during the March–May (MAM) season, has heightened concerns in a region already highly insecure about food. The underlying mechanisms, however, are still not yet fully understood. This article analyses a proxy for daily convection variations over a large region encompassing East Africa and the whole Indian Ocean basin by applying a cluster analysis to more than 30 years of daily outgoing longwave radiation (OLR). Focusing on the MAM season to investigate relationships with East African long rains, four recurrent convection regimes associated with wet/dry conditions in East Africa are identified. Interestingly, all four regimes are related to western/central Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and rainfall. Wet regimes are associated with cool and dry/warm and wet conditions over the Maritime Continent (MC)/tropical Pacific east of the date line. Dry regimes exhibit opposite SST/rainfall dipole patterns in the Pacific compared to wet regimes, with the Indian Ocean found to modulate impacts on East African rainfall. Significant relationships between off‐equatorial warming in the west Pacific and a more frequent dry regime in May since 1998–1999 suggest an earlier onset of the monsoon and Somali jet, consistent with the recent abrupt shift observed in East African long rains and their modulation at multi‐decadal time scales of the Pacific.

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Farmer Perceptions and Responses to Soil Degradation in Swaziland

2016

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Soil degradation is globally concerning due to its adverse effects on the environment and agricultural production. Much of Swaziland is at risk from degradation. This paper assesses farmer perceptions and responses to soil degradation in 2002 and 2014, focusing on two land uses that underpin rural livelihoods: arable land and rangeland areas. It uses repeat household surveys and semi‐structured interviews, in two case study chiefdoms in the country's middleveld (KaBhudla and Engcayini) in the first longitudinal study of its kind. We find that observations of land degradation are perceived mainly through changes in land productivity, with chemical degradation occurring predominantly on arable land and physical degradation and erosion mainly in rangeland areas. Changes in rainfall are particularly important in determining responses. While perceptions of the causes and impacts of degradation largely concur with the scientific literature, responses were constrained by poor land availability, shorter and more unpredictable cropping seasons because of changing rains and low awareness, access to or knowledge of agricultural inputs. We suggest that sustainable arable land management can be enhanced through improved access to alternative sources of water, use of management practices that retain soil and moisture and greater access to agricultural inputs and capacity building to ensure their appropriate use. We suggest collaborative management for settlement planning that integrates soil conservation and livestock management strategies such as controlled stocking levels and rotational grazing could improve land quality in rangeland areas. Together, these approaches can help land users to better manage change. © 2016 The Authors. Land Degradation & Development published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

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The climate-population nexus in the East African Horn: Emerging degradation trends in rangeland and pastoral livelihood zones

Cited by 124 publications

References 81 publications

A conceptual model for assessing rainfall and vegetation trends in sub‐Saharan Africa from satellite data

A conceptual model for assessing rainfall and vegetation trends in sub‐Saharan Africa from satellite data

Sub‐seasonal teleconnections between convection over the Indian Ocean, the East African long rains and tropical Pacific surface temperatures

Farmer Perceptions and Responses to Soil Degradation in Swaziland

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