The climate science for service partnership Brazil

Jones, Chris D.

doi:10.1002/cli2.30

Climate Resilience

2022

DOI: 10.1002/cli2.30

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The climate science for service partnership Brazil

Chris D. Jones

Abstract: Human activities continue to warm our climate in ways unprecedented in thousands of years. The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report confirms our role in this, and that more frequent and extreme events and impacts are being felt right now in all areas of the world. It is clear that we must adapt to some level of changes already occurring whilst also reducing our emissions to limit further damage and unmanageable impacts. What this means for society requires understanding at local level… Show more

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Convection-permitting climate simulations for South America with the Met Office Unified Model

et al. 2023

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We present the first convection-permitting regional climate model (CPRCM) simulations at 4.5 km horizontal resolution for South America at near-continental scale, including full details of the experimental setup and results from the reanalysis-driven hindcast and climate model-driven present-day simulations. We use a range of satellite and ground-based observations to evaluate the CPRCM simulations covering the period 1998–2007 comparing the CPRCM output with lower resolution regional and global climate model configurations for key regions of Brazil. We find that using the convection-permitting model at high resolution leads to large improvements in the representation of precipitation, specifically in simulating its diurnal cycle, frequency, and sub-daily intensity distribution (i.e. the proportion of heavy and light precipitation). We tentatively conclude that there are also improvements in the spatial structure of precipitation. We see higher precipitation intensity and extremes over Amazonia in the CPRCMs compared with observations, though more sub-daily observational data from meteorological stations are required to conclusively determine whether the CPRCMs add value in this regard. For annual mean precipitation and mean, maximum and minimum near surface temperatures, it is not clear that the CPRCMs add value compared with coarser-resolution models with parameterised convection. We also find large changes in the contribution to evapotranspiration from canopy evaporation compared to soil evaporation and transpiration compared with the RCM. This is likely to be related to the shift in precipitation intensity distribution of the CPRCMs compared to the RCM and its impact on the hydrological requires further investigation.

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Convection-permitting climate simulations for South America with the Met Office Unified Model

et al. 2023

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The climate science for service partnership Brazil

Cited by 1 publication

References 55 publications

Convection-permitting climate simulations for South America with the Met Office Unified Model

Convection-permitting climate simulations for South America with the Met Office Unified Model

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