The climatic drivers of primary Picea forest growth along the Carpathian arc are changing under rising temperatures

Schurman, Jonathan S.; Babst, Flurin; Björklund, Jesper; Rydval, Miloš; Bače, Radek; Čada, Vojtěch; Janda, Pavel; Mikoláš, Martin; Saulnier, Mélanie; Trotsiuk, Volodymyr; Svoboda, Miroslav

doi:10.1111/gcb.14721

Cited by 65 publications

(51 citation statements)

References 90 publications

(156 reference statements)

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“…6) show a steady increase in growth rates since the 17th century, even at lower elevations (ϳ800 m a.s.l. ); this is similar to the findings by Schurman et al (2019). However, the increase was lower than for the other two species (Fig.…”

Section: Species-specific and Elevation-dependent Reaction Patternsupporting

confidence: 92%

Evidence of elevation-specific growth changes of spruce, fir, and beech in European mixed mountain forests during the last three centuries

et al. 2020

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In Europe, mixed mountain forests, primarily comprised of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.), silver fir (Abies alba Mill.), and European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.), cover about 10 × 106 ha at elevations between ∼600 and 1600 m a.s.l. These forests provide invaluable ecosystem services. However, the growth of these forests and the competition among their main species are expected to be strongly affected by climate warming. In this study, we analyzed the growth development of spruce, fir, and beech in moist mixed mountain forests in Europe over the last 300 years. Based on tree-ring analyses on long-term observational plots, we found for all three species (i) a nondecelerating, linear diameter growth trend spanning more than 300 years; (ii) increased growth levels and trends, the latter being particularly pronounced for fir and beech; and (iii) an elevation-dependent change of fir and beech growth. Whereas in the past, the growth was highest at lower elevations, today’s growth is superior at higher elevations. This spatiotemporal pattern indicates significant changes in the growth and interspecific competition at the expense of spruce in mixed mountain forests. We discuss possible causes, consequences, and silvicultural implications of these distinct growth changes in mixed mountain forests.

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Section: Species-specific and Elevation-dependent Reaction Patternsupporting

confidence: 92%

Evidence of elevation-specific growth changes of spruce, fir, and beech in European mixed mountain forests during the last three centuries

et al. 2020

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“…Consistent with empirical studies, our analysis suggests that extreme years caused divergent forest growth responses along the Swiss elevational and spatial gradients (Hartl-Meier, Dittmar, Zang, & Rothe, 2014;Jolly et al, 2005;Vitali et al, 2017). An increase in temperature can enhance growth at higher elevations but lead to drought-induced growth decline at lower elevations, particularly for trees growing under high levels of competition (Babst et al, 2019;Jolly et al, 2005;Primicia et al, 2015;Schurman et al, 2019).…”

Section: Simulations Of Npp At the Country Scalesupporting

confidence: 85%

Assessing the response of forest productivity to climate extremes in Switzerland using model-data fusion

Trotsiuk¹

2020

Preprint

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Under unprecedent climate change and increased frequency of extreme events, e.g. drought, it is important to assess and forecast forest ecosystem vulnerability and stability. Large volumes of data from observational and experimental networks, increases in computational power, advances in ecological models, and optimization methodologies are the main measures to improve quantitative forecasting in ecology. Data assimilation is a key tool to improve ecosystem state prediction and forecasting by combining model simulations and observations. We assimilated observations of carbon stocks and fluxes from 271 permanent long-term forest monitoring plots across Switzerland into the 3-PG forest ecosystem model using Bayesian inference, reducing the bias of model predictions from 14% to 5% for forest stem carbon stocks and from 45% to 9% for stem carbon stock changes, respectively. We then estimated the productivity of forests dominated by Picea abies and Fagus sylvatica for the period of 1960-2018 and tested for climate-induced shifts in productivity along elevational gradient and in extreme years. Overall, we demonstrated a high potential of using data assimilation to improve predictions of forest ecosystem productivity. Furthermore, our calibrated model simulations suggest that climate extremes affect forest productivity in more complex ways than by simply shifting the response upwards in elevation.

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“…Consistent with empirical studies, our analysis suggests that extreme years caused divergent forest growth responses along the Swiss elevational and spatial gradients (Hartl‐Meier, Dittmar, Zang, & Rothe, ; Jolly et al, ; Vitali et al, ). An increase in temperature can enhance growth at higher elevations but lead to drought‐induced growth decline at lower elevations, particularly for trees growing under high levels of competition (Babst et al, ; Jolly et al, ; Primicia et al, ; Schurman et al, ). As an example, the extremely warm–dry year of 2003 promoted better growing conditions at higher elevations for P. abies .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the response of forest productivity to climate extremes in Switzerland using model–data fusion

Trotsiuk

Härtig

Cailleret

et al. 2020

Global Change Biology

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The response of forest productivity to climate extremes strongly depends on ambient environmental and site conditions. To better understand these relationships at a regional scale, we used nearly 800 observation years from 271 permanent long‐term forest monitoring plots across Switzerland, obtained between 1980 and 2017. We assimilated these data into the 3‐PG forest ecosystem model using Bayesian inference, reducing the bias of model predictions from 14% to 5% for forest stem carbon stocks and from 45% to 9% for stem carbon stock changes. We then estimated the productivity of forests dominated by Picea abies and Fagus sylvatica for the period of 1960–2018, and tested for productivity shifts in response to climate along elevational gradient and in extreme years. Simulated net primary productivity (NPP) decreased with elevation (2.86 ± 0.006 Mg C ha−1 year−1 km−1 for P. abies and 0.93 ± 0.010 Mg C ha−1 year−1 km−1 for F. sylvatica). During warm–dry extremes, simulated NPP for both species increased at higher and decreased at lower elevations, with reductions in NPP of more than 25% for up to 21% of the potential species distribution range in Switzerland. Reduced plant water availability had a stronger effect on NPP than temperature during warm‐dry extremes. Importantly, cold–dry extremes had negative impacts on regional forest NPP comparable to warm–dry extremes. Overall, our calibrated model suggests that the response of forest productivity to climate extremes is more complex than simple shift toward higher elevation. Such robust estimates of NPP are key for increasing our understanding of forests ecosystems carbon dynamics under climate extremes.

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The climatic drivers of primary Picea forest growth along the Carpathian arc are changing under rising temperatures

Cited by 65 publications

References 90 publications

Evidence of elevation-specific growth changes of spruce, fir, and beech in European mixed mountain forests during the last three centuries

Evidence of elevation-specific growth changes of spruce, fir, and beech in European mixed mountain forests during the last three centuries

Assessing the response of forest productivity to climate extremes in Switzerland using model-data fusion

Assessing the response of forest productivity to climate extremes in Switzerland using model–data fusion

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