The CLIVAR C20C project: selected twentieth century climate events

Scaife, Adam A.; Kucharski, Fred; Folland, Chris K.; Kinter, James L.; Brönnimann, Stefan; Fereday, David; Fischer, Andreas M.; Grainger, Simon; Jin, Emilia Kyung; Kang, In‐Sik; Knight, Jeff; Kusunoki, Shoji; Lau, Ngar‐Cheung; Nath, Mary Jo; Nakaegawa, Toshiyuki; Pegion, Philip; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Sporyshev, P. V.; Syktus, Jozef; Yoon, Jonghyuk; Zeng, Ning; Zhou, Tianjun

doi:10.1007/s00382-008-0451-1

Cited by 110 publications

(77 citation statements)

References 57 publications

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“…In contrast, the forced SOCOL integration agrees poorly with all of the observational estimates, consistent with relatively weak SST forcing of the NAO (e.g. Scaife et al, 2009). Interestingly, there is also good agreement among the observational estimates for the time series representing the upper-air pattern of the PNA.…”

Section: Representation Of Mean Climate Andclimate Variabilitysupporting

confidence: 53%

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The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project

Compo

Whitaker

Sardeshmukh

et al. 2011

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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† The contribution of R. J. Allan was written in the course of his employment at the Met Office, UK, and is published with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen's Printer for Scotland. ‡ The contributions of these authors were prepared as part of their official duties as US Federal Government employees.The Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) project is an international effort to produce a comprehensive global atmospheric circulation dataset spanning the twentieth century, assimilating only surface pressure reports and using observed monthly sea-surface temperature and sea-ice distributions as boundary conditions. is similar to that of current three-day operational NWP forecasts. Intercomparisons over the second half-century of these surface-based reanalyses with other reanalyses that also make use of upper-air and satellite data are equally encouraging.It is anticipated that the 20CR dataset will be a valuable resource to the climate research community for both model validations and diagnostic studies. Some surprising results are already evident. For instance, the long-term trends of indices representing the North Atlantic Oscillation, the tropical Pacific Walker Circulation, and the Pacific-North American pattern are weak or non-existent over the full period of record. The long-term trends of zonally averaged precipitation minus evaporation also differ in character from those in climate model simulations of the twentieth century.

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Section: Representation Of Mean Climate Andclimate Variabilitysupporting

confidence: 53%

“…Their climate variability was previously examined by (e.g.) Brönnimann et al (2009) and Scaife et al (2009). The definitions of the indices are the same as used in Brönnimann et al (2009).…”

Section: Representation Of Mean Climate Andclimate Variabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project

Compo

Whitaker

Sardeshmukh

et al. 2011

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

Self Cite

3,075

2,652

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“…Previous studies have suggested that the oceanic feedback is difficult to detect in the observations and model dependent. For example, Scaife et al (2009) have shown in a multi-model study that the late twentieth century NAO trend cannot be reproduced in models forced by the observed SSTs. This indicates either that the SSTs may be a weak factor in the NAO variability or that these models may show much too weak impact of SSTs on the NAO.…”

Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A delayed oscillator model for the quasi-periodic multidecadal variability of the NAO

2015

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that resembles the negative NAO phase, and subsequently the oscillation proceeds, but in the opposite sense. Based on these mechanisms, a simple delayed oscillator model is established to explain the quasi-periodic multidecadal variability of the NAO. The magnitude of the NAO forcing of the AMOC/AMO and the time delay of the AMOC/AMO feedback are two key parameters of the delayed oscillator. For a given set of parameters, the quasi 60-year cycle of the NAO can be well predicted. This delayed oscillator model is useful for understanding of the oscillatory mechanism of the NAO, which has significant potential for decadal predictions as well as the interpretation of proxy data records.

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“…The results of the other models ranged between less than 30 % of the observed precipitation anomaly to even no negative anomalies at all. Scaife et al (2009) concluded that the Sahel drought was only partly forced by SSTs in their experiment, which did not reproduce the magnitude of the Sahel drought. In spite of previous efforts to evaluate the SST contribution, a number of important questions remain unanswered.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 92%

“…For instance, the Climate of the twentieth century international project (C20C, Scaife et al 2009) used 14 state-of-theart GCMs with observed SSTs and other relevant data to study climate variations and changes over the last century. Only two C20C models simulated about half the magnitude of the Sahel rainfall changes between the 1950s and the 1980s.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

West African monsoon decadal variability and surface-related forcings: second West African Monsoon Modeling and Evaluation Project Experiment (WAMME II)

et al. 2016

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in the Sahel climate system at seasonal to decadal scales. The project's strategy is to apply prescribed observationally based anomaly forcing, i.e., "idealized but realistic" forcing, in simulations by climate models. The goal is to assess these forcings' effects in producing/amplifying seasonal and decadal climate variability in the Sahel between the 1950s and the 1980s, which is selected to characterize the great drought period of the last century. This is the first multi-model experiment specifically designed to simultaneously evaluate such relative contributions. The WAMME II models have consistently demonstrated that SST forcing is a major contributor to the twentieth century Sahel drought. Under the influence of the maximum possible SST forcing, the ensemble mean of WAMME II models can produce up to 60 % of the precipitation difference during the period. The present paper also addresses the role of SSTs Abstract The second West African Monsoon Modeling and Evaluation Project Experiment (WAMME II) is designed to improve understanding of the possible roles and feedbacks of sea surface temperature (SST), land use land cover change (LULCC), and aerosols forcings This paper is a contribution to the special issue on West African climate decadal variability and its modeling, consisting of papers from the West African Monsoon Modeling and Evaluation (WAMME) and the African Multidisciplinary Monsoon Analyses (AMMA) projects, and coordinated by Yongkang Xue, Serge Janicot, and William Lau. Provided Funding information has to be tagged. Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3224-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. 3in triggering and maintaining the Sahel drought. In this regard, the consensus of WAMME II models is that both Indian and Pacific Ocean SSTs greatly contributed to the drought, with the former producing an anomalous displacement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone before the WAM onset, and the latter mainly contributes to the summer WAM drought. The WAMME II models also show that the impact of LULCC forcing on the Sahel climate system is weaker than that of SST forcing, but still of first order magnitude. According to the results, under LULCC forcing the ensemble mean of WAMME II models can produces about 40 % of the precipitation difference between the 1980s and the 1950s. The role of land surface processes in responding to and amplifying the drought is also identified. The results suggest that catastrophic consequences are likely to occur in the regional Sahel climate when SST anomalies in individual ocean basins and in land conditions combine synergistically to favor drought.Keywords Sahel seasonal and decadal climate variability · Sahel drought, SST and land forcings · GCM

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The CLIVAR C20C project: selected twentieth century climate events

Cited by 110 publications

References 57 publications

The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project

The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project

A delayed oscillator model for the quasi-periodic multidecadal variability of the NAO

West African monsoon decadal variability and surface-related forcings: second West African Monsoon Modeling and Evaluation Project Experiment (WAMME II)

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