The Color of Electoral Success: Estimating the Effect of Skin Tone on Winning Elections in Mexico

Abstract

Objective. Evidence suggests that voters' prejudices may lead them to take information shortcuts in choosing political leaders. This study analyzes whether the skin tone of 12,798 candidates influenced the outcome of their electoral campaigns. Methods. To determine the probability of winning an election, we estimate a linear regression where skin tone is used as an explanatory variable, with controls such as sex and political party. Based on the number of votes obtained by each candidate, we estimate an ordered logit model. Results. Candidates with dark brown skin tones face a probability of winning that is 20-38 percent less than those with intermediate skin color. A one standard deviation increase in skin tone is associated with an 8 percent decrease in the probability of finishing in first place. Conclusion. Skin color influences electoral outcomes. Public policies should therefore ensure equal access and true representativeness. In a democracy, the candidates who win elections are those who can convince the electorate to vote for them. Democracy is therefore built on our perceptions of politicians rather than on their true profiles. Even if citizens try to inform themselves, they can be hindered by cognitive capacity and information acquisition constraints, which may lead them to rely on prejudices in their voting choices. These biases are likely based in part on candidates' physical characteristics, such as gender or skin tone (Buckley, Collins, and Reidy, 2007; Gigerenzer and Gaissmaier, 2011; Lau and Redlawsk, 2001). 1 For this reason, it is necessary to consider whether skin color affects voter perceptions and thus influences electoral outcomes. Studies of political choice have paid increasing attention to the physical characteristic of skin color. In an experiment, Aguilar (2011) tested whether skin tone matters in choosing among candidates in Mexico. She found that participants were twice as likely to vote for a white candidate with European phenotypes than for an indigenous one. Leigh and Susilo (2009) estimated the effect of candidate ballot photographs on election

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“…Furthermore, the authors do not share the code for their algorithm, which makes their study hard to evaluate and replicate. Other studies that claim to use algorithms as part of their methodology to measure skin color do not share the codes either (Campos‐Vazquez and Rivas‐Herrera 2021).…”

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