The Common Interests of Health Protection and the Economy: Evidence from Scenario Calculations of COVID-19 Containment Policies

Abstract

Several countries use shutdown strategies to contain the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic, at the expense of massive economic costs. While this suggests a conflict between health protection and economic objectives, we examine whether the economically optimal exit strategy can be reconciled with the containment of the epidemic. We use a novel combination of epidemiological and economic simulations for scenario calculations based on empirical evidence from Germany. Our findings suggest that a prudent opening is economically optimal, whereas costs are higher for a more extensive opening process. This rejects the view that there is a conflict with health protection. Instead, it is in the common interest of public health and the economy to relax non-pharmaceutical interventions in a manner that keeps the epidemic under control.

SARS-CoV-2 elimination, not mitigation, creates best outcomes for health, the economy, and civil liberties

“…6 One study quantified the optimal basic reproduction number so that elimination is achieved at minimal economic cost. 7 To this end, consider weekly GDP growth with respect to 2019 for the OECD countries that opted for elimination or mitigation ( figure ). Elimination is superior to mitigation for GDP growth on average and at almost all time periods.…”

Deciphering the COVID-19 Health Economic Dilemma (HED): A Scoping Review

“…Substantial amounts of literature acknowledge the detrimental and vast impact of the outbreak on economic activities [33,34,44,45,[48][49][50][51][52][53][54][55][56][57][58][59][60][61][62][63][64][65]. While it is well accepted that the economic perils of a pandemic are not trivial, less agreement in the literature exists with regard to whether the consequences of various NPIs, such as social distancing, are appropriate.…”

An intra-host SARS-CoV-2 dynamics model to assess testing and quarantine strategies for incoming travelers, contact management, and de-isolation

“…The large-scale lockdowns implemented by governments all over the world during the first and second waves of the pandemic have proven extremely successful at controlling the outbreak and limiting the number of deaths, but induced significant economic damage. 36,37 As lockdowns were gradually lifted, many of the more limited NPIs were maintained, with the goal of keeping the number of infections low and maintaining an effective reproduction number at time t (Rt) of <1. These NPIs include social distancing and hygiene measures, mask mandates, and restrictions on public gatherings.…”