The complex nonlinear systems with fractal as well as chaotic dynamics of annual runoff processes in the three headwaters of the Tarim River

Xu, Jiang; Chen, Yaning; Li, Weihong; Ji, Minhe; Dong, Shikui

doi:10.1007/s11442-009-0025-0

Cited by 35 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 29 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Presently, however, only four rivers have maintained hydraulic connection. Three of these, the Aksu River, Yarkand River and Hotan River, have hydraulic connections with the upstream Tarim River (Xu et al, 2009a). The headwater catchment of the TRB, as shown in Figure 1, can be regarded as a single catchment with relatively independent hydrological units.…”

Section: Study Area Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of climate change on hydrological processes in the headwater catchment of the Tarim River basin, China

Liu¹,

Xu²,

Huang³

et al. 2009

Hydrological Processes

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract:The impacts of climate change on hydrological processes in the headwater catchment of the Tarim River Basin (TRB), the largest inland river basin in China, were assessed using the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) macro-scale hydrological model. The Delta method, a relatively simple and widely used method for constructing regional climate change scenarios for impact assessment, was used to project climate change scenarios based on GCM A2 and B2 scenarios. Projected meteorological variables for these two scenarios were inputted to the VIC model to simulate hydrological changes. The impacts of climate change on evapotranspiration and runoff in the catchment were assessed. Results showed that the runoff in winter exhibited a decreasing trend. As runoff in winter is mainly generated from snowmelt, this could have resulted from a decreasing trend in air temperature. Runoff in spring exhibited an increasing trend, which may be beneficial to agriculture. Overall, runoff in the study area showed a slight decreasing trend, while evapotranspiration exhibited an increasing trend. These results imply that water availability in the TRB is likely to become more critical in the future.

show abstract

Section: Study Area Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of climate change on hydrological processes in the headwater catchment of the Tarim River basin, China

Liu¹,

Xu²,

Huang³

et al. 2009

Hydrological Processes

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…In fact, the hydro-climatic processes with nonlinear mechanism in the arid region of Northwest China are very complicated systems (Xu et al 2010a, b), and relations between streamflow and climate factors are not understood thoroughly (Xu et al 2008a(Xu et al , 2009a. It is difficult to model the physical hydro-climatic process because of the difficulties to obtain extensive precise data on underlying surface by the grid method, whereas traditional statistical analysis cannot directly deal with the complicated nonlinear process of the hydro-climatic system (Xu et al 2008b(Xu et al , 2009b.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An integrated statistical approach to identify the nonlinear trend of runoff in the Hotan River and its relation with climatic factors

Chen

et al. 2010

Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

A number of studies have indicated a transition from warm-dry to warm-wet climate in Northwest China after the 1980s. This transition was characterized by an increase in temperature and precipitation, added river runoff volume, increased lake water surface elevation and area, and elevated groundwater table. However, some literatures showed that the Hotan River has presented a contrary situation, i.e. the runoff decreased, whereas temperature and precipitation increased. In order to discover the nonlinear runoff trend and its causes in the Hotan River, based on the related data from hydrological stations, ground and air sounding meteorological stations, this study applied a comprehensive method combing correlation analysis, wavelet analysis and regression analysis to investigate the runoff change in the Hotan River with its relevant climatic factors over the past decades. The main findings are: (a) the hydrological process of the Hotan River is a nonlinear system, with a periodicity of 24 year cycle, and it shows different nonlinear trends at different time scales; (b) the data from the ground meteorological stations in the Hotan area shows a false appearance that there is almost no correlation between runoff and temperature, and a little negative correlation between runoff and precipitation; (c) but the data from air sounding meteorological stations shows the truth that there is a close relation between the runoff in the Hotan River and the 0°C level height in summer on the north slope of Kunlun Mountains. The two variables present a same periodicity, i.e. 24-year cycle, having similar nonlinear trends and significant correlations at different time scales.

show abstract

“…2) Both the functional mechanism and the system process are nonlinear. And 3) it is difficult to precisely forecast the occurrence of outbursts and emergence (Xu et al, 2009).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Wavelet analysis and nonparametric test for climate change in Tarim River Basin of Xinjiang during 1959–2006

Chen

et al. 2009

Chin. Geogr. Sci.

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Using wavelet analysis, regression analysis and the Mann-Kendall test, this paper analyzed time-series weather data from 23 meteorological stations in an attempt to characterize the climate change in the Tarim River Basin of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China. Major findings are as follows: 1) In the 48-year study period, average annual temperature, annual precipitation and average annual relative humidity all presented nonlinear trends. 2) At the 16-year time scale, all three climate indices unanimously showed a rather flat before 1964 and a detectable pickup thereafter. At the 8-year time scale, an S-shaped nonlinear and uprising trend was revealed with slight fluctuations in the entire process for all three indices. Incidentally, they all showed similar pattern of a slight increase before 1980 and a noticeable up-swing afterwards. The 4-year time scale provided a highly fluctuating pattern of periodical oscillations and spiral increases. 3) Average annual relative humidity presented a negative correlation with average annual temperature and a positive correlation with annual precipitation at each time scale, which revealed a close dynamic relationship among them at the confidence level of 0.001. 4) The Mann-Kendall test at the 0.05 confidence level demonstrated that the climate warming trend, as represented by the rising average annual temperature, was remarkable, but the climate wetting trend, as indicated by the rising annual precipitation and average annual relative humidity, was not obvious.

show abstract

The complex nonlinear systems with fractal as well as chaotic dynamics of annual runoff processes in the three headwaters of the Tarim River

Cited by 35 publications

References 29 publications

Impacts of climate change on hydrological processes in the headwater catchment of the Tarim River basin, China

Impacts of climate change on hydrological processes in the headwater catchment of the Tarim River basin, China

An integrated statistical approach to identify the nonlinear trend of runoff in the Hotan River and its relation with climatic factors

Wavelet analysis and nonparametric test for climate change in Tarim River Basin of Xinjiang during 1959–2006

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About