Abstract:In this paper we provide evidence for Evans and Lyons' (2005b) model of an information aggregation process in FX markets using a German bank's end-user order flow from 2002 to 2003. Though customer order flow is unambiguously the vehicle incorporating non-public information into exchange rates over time, our empirical analysis does not support the widespread optimism in the market microstructure literature that customer order flow is the high-powered source of information easily exploitable for short-run speculation. Moreover, commercial customers' order flow produces negative coefficients in contemporaneous return regressions, stressing their role as liquidity providers.
Keywords:Foreign exchange; market microstructure; end-user order flow JEL-Classification: F31
Non-technical summaryIn spite of many years of extensive research short-run exchange rate fluctuations still remain difficult to explain. The microstructure approach attempts to make progress in this respect by stressing the role of asymmetric information on foreign exchange markets.At the core of standard microstructure models a market maker is assumed to anonymously collect orders from informed and uninformed traders (Kyle, 1985). The market maker infers private information from informed traders by analyzing the incoming order flow and sets prices accordingly. As a result the microstructure approach suggests order flow as a major driving force of exchange rates dynamics. This paper empirically investigates FX dealer behavior in the Euro-US dollar market using the transaction data of a German bank in a one-year period from October 2002 to September 2003. In a first step, we estimate standard market microstructure models finding that order size and currency spreads are negatively correlated and commercial customers are faced with higher spreads than financial customers. This contrasts with standard adverse selection theory, which suggests that dealers increase spreads with a rising likelihood of private information indicated by customer type or order size (Glosten and Milgrom, 1985;Easley and O'Hara, 1987). Moreover, our dealer refrains from quote shading, i.e. he does not quote currency prices in order to manage inventory. Instead, undesired inventory is unloaded in the interdealer market.The empirical results in this section are in line with other studies such as and Osler et al. (2006), implying that the end-user order flow investigated here is similar to that of other dealing banks. This lends support to the view that the data set at hand is a representative fraction of market wide order flow. Thus, our second step is to use cointegration techniques to assess the information content of end-user order flow.In line with the price discovery process suggested by Evans and Lyons (2005b), we find that exchange rates are cointegrated with customer order flow. Within the cointegration relationship, exchange rates are positively related to financial customer orders and negatively related to commercial customer orders. In the short run, however, ne...