The Continuum of Northeast Pacific Marine Heatwaves and Their Relationship to the Tropical Pacific

Xu, Taiyi; Newman, Matthew; Capotondi, Antonietta; Lorenzo, Emanuele Di

doi:10.1029/2020gl090661

Cited by 25 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…4 ). In the future, our MHW forecasts could be expanded upon, with coupled climate forecasts from additional modelling centres and international collaborations (for example, from the Copernicus Climate Change Service; https://climate.copernicus.eu/seasonal-forecasts ) as well as statistical forecasting methods such as linear inverse modelling 25 , 39 or machine learning techniques. In addition, whereas the monthly resolution of seasonal forecast output limits its application to the longer-lived MHWs (>1 month) that tend to be more predictable, forecasts of short-lived events may be useful and viable especially at short (for example, subseasonal) lead times.…”

Section: Operational Mhw Forecastsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global seasonal forecasts of marine heatwaves

Jacox

Alexander

Amaya

et al. 2022

Nature

134

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Marine heatwaves (MHWs)—periods of exceptionally warm ocean temperature lasting weeks to years—are now widely recognized for their capacity to disrupt marine ecosystems1–3. The substantial ecological and socioeconomic impacts of these extreme events present significant challenges to marine resource managers4–7, who would benefit from forewarning of MHWs to facilitate proactive decision-making8–11. However, despite extensive research into the physical drivers of MHWs11,12, there has been no comprehensive global assessment of our ability to predict these events. Here we use a large multimodel ensemble of global climate forecasts13,14 to develop and assess MHW forecasts that cover the world’s oceans with lead times of up to a year. Using 30 years of retrospective forecasts, we show that the onset, intensity and duration of MHWs are often predictable, with skilful forecasts possible from 1 to 12 months in advance depending on region, season and the state of large-scale climate modes, such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. We discuss considerations for setting decision thresholds based on the probability that a MHW will occur, empowering stakeholders to take appropriate actions based on their risk profile. These results highlight the potential for operational MHW forecasts, analogous to forecasts of extreme weather phenomena, to promote climate resilience in global marine ecosystems.

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Section: Operational Mhw Forecastsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global seasonal forecasts of marine heatwaves

Jacox

Alexander

Amaya

et al. 2022

Nature

134

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“…Others (Amaya et al., 2021; Bond et al., 2015) have emphasized the role of persistent local atmospheric forcing, together with enhanced upper‐ocean stratification and reduced mixed‐layer depth as causes of the extreme intensity and persistence of Northeast Pacific MHWs. Recent results (Xu et al., 2021; XNCD hereafter) show that the extreme warm conditions that have recently occurred in the Northeast Pacific are part of a continuum of events with a broad range of intensities/durations (Scannel et al., 2016; XNCD), and with similar temporal evolutions. The duration of these events appears to be controlled by the timing of ENSO development in the equatorial Pacific, while the intensity is primarily influenced by local atmospheric forcing.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Optimal Precursor of Northeast Pacific Marine Heatwaves and Central Pacific El Niño Events

Capotondi

Newman

et al. 2022

Geophysical Research Letters

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The intensity of Northeast Pacific marine heatwaves (MHWs) has been related to local stochastic atmospheric forcing with limited predictability, but their evolution and persistence may be controlled by large‐scale climate influences. A Linear Inverse Model containing both sea surface temperature and sea surface height (SSH) anomalies is used to identify the “optimal” conditions for observed Northeast Pacific MHW events that developed two‐to‐four seasons later. These optimal initial conditions include SSH anomalies that are responsible for most of the MHW growth, suggesting the relevance of subsurface ocean dynamics. Moreover, Northeast Pacific MHW growth occurs as part of a basin‐scale dynamical mode that links the North Pacific to central equatorial Pacific El Niño events, whose subsequent development may lengthen MHW duration.

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“…2019, Xu et al. 2020). Since MHWs can comprise such huge temperature anomalies in few days (according to MHW Tracker; http://www.marineheatwaves.org/tracker.html), seaweeds can be exposed to short‐term (but extreme) thermal stress.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Short‐term stress responses and recovery of giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera, Laminariales, Phaeophyceae) juvenile sporophytes to a simulated marine heatwave and nitrate scarcity¹

Umanzor

Sandoval‐Gil

Sánchez-Barredo

et al. 2021

Journal of Phycology

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The frequency of marine heatwaves (MHWs) is increasing due to climate change. Although seaweeds are resilient to environmental changes, an increasing body of evidence shows that rising sea surface temperatures have deleterious effects on temperate kelp species. However, information on the vulnerability of juvenile kelp to these stressors and their population stability is limited. This study summarizes findings on the ability of juvenile sporophytes of Macrocystis pyrifera to survive and recover from simulated MHW conditions (22°C, 5 d) in combination with nitrate limitation (<1 µM) by evaluating photosynthetic capacity, nitrate uptake, tissue composition, bio‐optical properties, and oxidative stress of single‐blade juvenile sporophytes (<20 cm). Temperature, nitrate availability, and their interaction had significant effects on the physiological status of juvenile sporophytes after the exposure and recovery periods. Overall, as expected, the photosynthetic capacity of juvenile sporophytes decreased with increased temperature and lower nitrate availability. Short‐term exposure to simulated MHWs resulted in oxidative damage and reduced growth. The termination of the experimental warming allowed partial recovery to control values, indicating high physiological resilience. However, the interaction of both high temperature and nitrate scarcity induced irreversible damage to their photosynthetic capacity, with an increase in compensation irradiance, highlighting potential limitations in the carbon balance of juvenile sporophytes.

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The Continuum of Northeast Pacific Marine Heatwaves and Their Relationship to the Tropical Pacific

Abstract: Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are extended periods of anomalously warm ocean temperatures and are often classified based on their intensity and duration (

Cited by 25 publications

References 47 publications

Global seasonal forecasts of marine heatwaves

Global seasonal forecasts of marine heatwaves

An Optimal Precursor of Northeast Pacific Marine Heatwaves and Central Pacific El Niño Events

Short‐term stress responses and recovery of giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera, Laminariales, Phaeophyceae) juvenile sporophytes to a simulated marine heatwave and nitrate scarcity¹

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The Continuum of Northeast Pacific Marine Heatwaves and Their Relationship to the Tropical Pacific

Abstract: Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are extended periods of anomalously warm ocean temperatures and are often classified based on their intensity and duration (

Cited by 25 publications

References 47 publications

Global seasonal forecasts of marine heatwaves

Global seasonal forecasts of marine heatwaves

An Optimal Precursor of Northeast Pacific Marine Heatwaves and Central Pacific El Niño Events

Short‐term stress responses and recovery of giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera, Laminariales, Phaeophyceae) juvenile sporophytes to a simulated marine heatwave and nitrate scarcity1

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Product

Resources

About

Short‐term stress responses and recovery of giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera, Laminariales, Phaeophyceae) juvenile sporophytes to a simulated marine heatwave and nitrate scarcity¹